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Jurgis

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Everything posted by Jurgis

  1. I took a look at it yesterday again. It's not Munger I object to. I agree that is great. (I would have liked if he expanded on some portions of it though - he clearly ran out of time and some of the points are just one sentence soundbytes without elaboration). It's the filler material. The third person anecdotes are very uneven quality. There are are tons of only vaguely related inserts, etc, some of which even break the underlying text. This book would have benefited a lot from someone like Alice Schroeder going through the material and making it into a real book. IMO, loving Munger and loving "Poor Charlie's Almanack" are possibly quite uncorrelated. ;)
  2. Great talk. It has drawbacks, but still great.
  3. Let's buy houses in Boca Chica: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-09/elon-musk-making-enemies-fast-in-town-hosting-space-x-launches
  4. If you don't buy and read, cover to cover, Poor Charlie's Almanack, Seeking Wisdom, and Damn Right! by Janet Lowe, you are doing yourself a disservice as an investor. And as a human being. You won't be disappointed. I would personally buy all three books from you if you don't find them worthy of your bookshelf. I think Charlie said somewhere, and I'm paraphrasing, "If you don't like Poor Charlie's Almanack, give it to someone more intelligent". I started Poor Charlie's Almanack. It was unfocused and boring. I might get back to it or try to find someone more intelligent. ::)
  5. Found a stepladder $10 cheaper than Amazon, same item number. BTW, you can get free 6 month membership with membership code FREE6. This is in addition to $10 off code. There were 12 month membership codes, but they are apparently not working anymore - but might be worth trying.
  6. Some groceries are cheaper on Jet. Amazon's 3rd-party grocers are notoriously overpriced. When I needed granola, I bought it on Walmart.com Jet.com price is similar to Walmart.com Amazon prices were 1.5x-3x supermarket / Walmart.com prices.
  7. Tough to say. Something like "Magic formula" or value-weighted index funds may outperform long term and they are clearly just arithmetic and algebra. Most active investors either use more or use non-quantitative metrics (like moat, management, etc.) or both. How many of them produce outperformance is the $1M question.
  8. Not that it's the right way to value BRK, but if you take $16B of earnings as CF and run a 5% growth for 10 years DCF, your hurdle rate is only 7% to make current price cheap. If you use 10-15% hurdle rate, it is quite overvalued. That's why you have to bring other parts into equation to persuade yourself that it's rather cheap. Or just go with P/B. ;) Why would you use a 10-15% hurdle rate for BRK? Because I want to have 10-15% return. Hurdle rate == return rate.
  9. Not that it's the right way to value BRK, but if you take $16B of earnings as CF and run a 5% growth for 10 years DCF, your hurdle rate is only 7% to make current price cheap. If you use 10-15% hurdle rate, it is quite overvalued. That's why you have to bring other parts into equation to persuade yourself that it's rather cheap. Or just go with P/B. ;)
  10. The bond is rated CAA1/B- Fido has the info about it using CUSIP U62919AA0 No availability, no Fido trades. Very limited info on http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=FNATH4218196&symbol=NATH4218196
  11. Tried to find it on Fido - no results. If anyone finds it, can you post CUSIP?
  12. Currently even the big company documents have zero comments. ;) I wonder how much their traffic spiked due to mention at CoBF. ;)
  13. My answer to myself: most likely algos will grab the bad guys' 10000 shares at $10 and sell them to you at $11 or whatever. This won't ruin the day for the bad guy though.
  14. Just for fun. 8) There's a security A. Trades at $1, 1000 shares a day. Bad guy has accumulated 10000 shares. There are 2 sellers at $1.10 1000 shares and $1.50 1000 shares. Bad guy puts limit sell order at $10 for 10000 shares. Bad guy puts a market buy order for 12000 shares from your account. How exactly algos are going ruin this? Curious minds want to know. To simplify there are no options available for this security. Also to simplify, it is very unlikely that non-algo people will look at it, see a market buy order for 12000 shares and manage to get their sell orders in time. ----------- BTW, without one-time passcode, they don't need to break IB encryption. They just need a keylogger on your computer that comes with any virus or malware. If they zombie your computer, they can even execute the trades from it, so IB won't even notice "it's a different computer, alert". I agree that if you're not liable due to Canadian laws, then you don't give a crap about inconvenient security. ;)
  15. I'd say over 50% chance we have practical immortality in 50 years. About 90% chance we have it in 100 years. Both probabilities assume that we don't blow ourselves up in the meantime due to social issues that such developments create. Please adjust the probability by chance that we do blow up. IMO these probabilities are also quite high, perhaps in 10%+ range for 50 years, 25%+ for 100 years. Yes, I am optimist. ;) ** If you want to continue discussion, please open a new thread ** ** Disclaimer: practical immortality means that you won't die from disease or old age if you have enough money and you don't miss irreversible issues. You can still die from accidents, murders, suicide, having bad doctors, not having money for medical support, etc. In case of longer term (over 50 years) future, consciousness copying/upload might become possible too. **
  16. Sorry, rb, but in this case you are just not thinking it through. A trivial way to get money from your account is to - Post a limit sell order of illiquid security at let's say 10x current price from their account - Post a market buy order for same security from your account. Poof, money is theirs. I'm sure there are other ways too.
  17. No problem. :) Think "immortal" though. ;)
  18. If that occurs then I would have failed as a parent anyways which in my mind would be worse then losing money. Sorry, I don't understand what you mean here. :) Good luck.
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