Jurgis

You can start a poll with this question. 8)

Yes, it is Lewis Carroll story: we had threads for all the above already. ::)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-recommendations-ignored-as-case-numbers-rise/2020/06/15/0c112bdc-af3a-11ea-8758-bfd1d045525a_story.html Summary: infections and deaths continue to increase; likely no lockdowns and likely mask wearing and social distancing t®end to be ignored. People die, but hey it's USA!

It's only a flesh wound.

If you send a wagon laden with fake gold through Sherwood Forest, can this be considered entrapment? Merry Men want to know

And you are sure thie R0 decline is because of the 13% population testing positive and not because of the lockdown/social-distancing/masks? ::)

Congrats Writser if you held. I sold somewhere on the way. Probably while drunk on the shoulder of the road.

Wait until it goes BK and then it goes up 300%.

$20B for essentially a name and a bunch of hand-waving is crazy. But hey --- kudos to ValueAct

I'm running out of popcorn dudes. Maybe I should buy CAG.

We should probably move this to general RE thread. Hot seating sucks. People have different preferences in terms of desks/monitors/keyboards/etc. Hot seating costs probably half hour to hour+ of productivity loss per day per person. A company I know pre-Covid has had some teams with about 50% of people working from home and another 20%+ coming only few days a week. Still had cubes for everyone. Whether that's gonna stay the same in the future, who knows. If I had to guess, the people working from home will lose their cubes at some point. The few-days-a-week people might not. In any case, I'm sure people will gonna fight hot seating with passion. (Yeah, good luck, let go all the engineers who don't like hot seating... that's gonna be good for business.) Just one place though. On the other hand, I've been to an office of a logistics division of huge company and they have had the hot seating + open floor space couple years ago. And presumably they are doing fine with getting people to work there. So there was a mix pre-Covid and there's gonna be a mix post-Covid.

You're not thinking like asset-lite second-level thinker. They can outsource the outsourcing! Then they could provide outsourced outsourced truck as a service. It's all hydrogen anyway! Hint, hint: what do you get when you burn hydrogen? Spoiler: hot air

US is so fucked Covid-great! https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/as-coronavirus-cases-rise-nationwide-public-health-experts-urge-caution/2020/06/10/1617dee4-ab36-11ea-a9d9-a81c1a491c52_story.html

Yikes, I guess you are right. Seemed like he was drinking in most of his videos, day or night. I loved the irony of the 'I should be up a Billion dollars today!' line on the day old man Buffett watched his largest equity position - a tech stock - go up by $10.53 per share, while owning 250,866,566 shares of that tech stock. Looks like there is a very real possibility that Berkshire's largest equity position will be worth more than the entire market cap of Wells Fargo at some point. But seriously, what have you done for me lately old man? OT. I watched some of his Twitter videos and I am still not sure if he's serious or if he's playing Cramer/crazy day trader dude. If he is playing, great props for staying in character. OTOH, I only watched some videos, so maybe I missed the ticks.

73 / 1469 == 5% Well, that's what I get for trusting the numbers and not doing the math myself. So why does mutpl say "Jan 1, 1999 3.04%?" Or "Jan 1, 2000 3.44%?" Even if I pull their own numbers: Dec 31, 1999 73.38 Dec 1, 1999 1,428.68 So I have no idea why their site says 3.x% instead of what the math actually says. I'm sure I'm making some kind of mistake. Or not understanding something properly. The 73 EPS number is inflation adjusted (April 2020 dollars) while the 1429 index level is not so the ratio isn’t economically meaningful. The 3.x% earnings yield figure is correct as far as I know. Thanks. My bad. Using this: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm 1999 earnings were 51.68. Which would have given expected return of ~3% from 1999 levels. So 1999 was much worse in terms of valuation, whether we look at absolute numbers or relative to bond yields. OTOH, earnings growth 1999 to 2019 was 6% and not 3% as I previously calculated. More precise comparisons could be made by using vinod1's model. 8)

73 / 1469 == 5%

Sold half of my beer-sized VTIQW/NKLAW position today. Now it can go up another 10x.

Moved to more appropriate thread: Looking at SP500 data, 1999 earnings were ~73 ( https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table/by-year ), SP500 finished 1999 at ~1469. Assuming 5% growth and 15 terminal PE, this price would have given expected ~7% annual return. At today's price, SP500 expected annual return is ~5%, which is lower than what could have been expected in 1999. But the 30y treasury rates are much lower too. So it's not an easy comparison. Of course, anyone who looked at that earnings table would notice that SP500 earnings did not grow 5% per year from 1999. In fact, earnings in 2009 were lower than they were in 1999. Even going to 2019, the earnings only grew 3% annually for 20 year period. On the third hand, the estimates should be adjusted for divvies, etc like vinod1 did in his report on 2030-2040 SP500 predictions.

Is that your screenshot below Jurgis??? Like how you roll homie, Charlie and Warren ain't got nothing on you! YOLO! Not mine. I would never use Verizon. Is it yours?

TINA! YOLO! MNGA (Make Nasdaq Great Again)!

You guys are slow. ::) https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/bp-plc-british-petroleum/msg398521/#msg398521

Bumpety bump for anyone interested to vote or in results.

I did not go in depth through your calculations and assumptions yet. With simple DCF model stolen borrowed from Brooklyn Investor, plugging in ~130 earnings, 10 years DCF, 5% growth, terminal 15 P/E, results in 10% return from 2200, 8% return from 2500, and 5% from current levels (~3180). I think that matches your numbers approximately. 8) (Yeah, I know adjust for Covid and all that.) Thanks for posting. 8)