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Jurgis

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Everything posted by Jurgis

  1. How do we know where it "matters most"? Masks. Nursing homes where more effort is put in separating infected from not infected. Better ventilation and training at Nursing homes. We are fighting the Virus with on twitter and with the Fed. So far, the Virus doesn’t seem to care. Virus does not have Twitter account yet? Oh horrors. How does it establish social presence then?
  2. Forget SPCE! VTIQ/NKLA iz da new shizz homies! 8) What did I say? SPAC electric trucks, yo. Datz how we roll.
  3. I think that is 100% right. It wouldn't cost anything if they distributed N95 masks at cost for all Americans to the pharmacies and people paid cost. That is what South Korea did. They are smart, I give them that. Masks would be an incredible high ROI. I actually just snail mailed some mask research to the most powerful person in the free world - The first lady - Melania Trump. We will see if she is able to get through to Trump. At least more and more people are slowly getting there and wearing more masks. I linked earlier in this thread to an economics paper that calculates the prospective value of masks, cloth, surgical, and N95. Each mask is worth thousands of dollars in expected value because the crisis is so expensive that anything that reduces the R0 and the time it lasts by even a little is worth a ton. Is was obviously the right thing to do 2 months ago to use the DPA to launch large-scale mask production and to encourage everyone to make cloth masks and wear them (like the Czech did). Should have done 2 months ago. Do it now anyway* *not gonna happen
  4. I agree with you that BRK > MKL. I would also point out that again using the Q1 2018 13-F's and the Q1 2020 13-F's, Akre has gone from owning 3.7% to 3.6% of MKL and it has declined from 8%+ to a ~4% position. Akre has been "selling" MKL in a tax efficient manner via dilution with inflows and letting other positions get bigger. Good insight. Maybe he sold BRK for tax reasons too: a good year to match whatever BRK gains they have against losses elsewhere? Not sure. Just thinking aloud. ::)
  5. I guess what's interesting is that Akre still holds 4+% of MKL. I don't see why MKL is more attractive than BRK. I also don't quite understand holding something like MKL in a fund. You're basically buying a company that holds a bunch of stocks and not even at a discount. Also somewhat true for BRK, but BRK at least has pretty big wholly owned businesses part.
  6. Freeeeee Moneeeeeey!!!!!!* *see my signature though
  7. Here it is. Thanks. I'm LMAO at the cheque. There's probably a regulation somewhere of what can go on cheques. The only place the could put his name in is in the description. Likely because the president doesn't have signing authority at the treasury. BUT Vona Robinson does. So she gets to sign the cheques, not Trump. Ooooohh he must have been pissed about that. There's a follow up on this. A letter arrived today from Donnie advertising his check and the great job he's doing for hardworking Americans. Has a Spanish text on the other side too. Pure Cialdini man. How can this genius not be reelected?
  8. How do you evaluate the underwriting of the fronting platform? That is the major risk to this company and its hard to handicap. This. You basically have to trust management to have tight controls and not go off the rails. By the time you can notice something, this could implode. This is especially true because of rapid growth. So, basically, trust management. I reduced my position in this significantly. I am just not sure how I can evaluate this beyond trusting management. I'd appreciate ideas.
  9. When I read the topic - without reading what you wrote in it - I immediately thought the same thing as you did: computer virus! hack! However, I wonder if that would hit physical businesses hugely too. I.e. if your airline reservation system is down, you're not going to fly. If Visa/MC networks are down, you're not gonna buy anything. If Google is down, well does that mean all your Android phones and apps are down? I guess it would depend what exactly would happen on the tech side. If it's just one company affected, then that company's stock may or may not crash. You may remember that some time ago there was a number of companies affected by ransomware that were halfway offline for a month or so. I don't remember all the companies affected, but I don't think any suffered permanent losses. It could be argued that the incident was not very big though.
  10. Can be interpreted positively or negatively: https://www.barrons.com/articles/laid-off-workers-show-confidence-theyll-be-rehired-51588965820
  11. Nah, we should reopen it! And no testing, tests are overrated! Make the White House Open Again!
  12. Well, good for retail investors if they bought stocks of good companies (and not USO) during the dip. And if they manage to hold them through whatever comes. Yeah, although you do have to wonder what % of these guys who piled into the market in response to commissions going from $5 to $0 are really in it for the long haul... I do wonder. But I tried to be positive (for my daily dose of positivism).
  13. Well, good for retail investors if they bought stocks of good companies (and not USO) during the dip. And if they manage to hold them through whatever comes.
  14. Musk has a cult following. And although not directly comparable SpaceX employees have been going all kind of desolate places since the beginning. So he might build (another?) plant somewhere in US. But it's also a big doze of Elon posturing like he does a lot.
  15. If you're willing to haggle a bit and walk out, Carvana is not cheaper. But based on the success of CarMax and many people I know, there are alot of people who hate negotiating. I rather hate negotiating. But I'd have hard time buying used car without a test drive. The last two times I bought used car, I went to a dealer and the first one I took on a test drive had serious issues. One did not start. Another one had some other electrical problems I think. Yeah, Carvana allows 7 day return, but that's a huge hassle IMO. Although, yeah, I looked at the website and some cars/prices seem to be OK. So if I knew it's not gonna be a lemon, I might buy... (that's assuming I'm not gonna go electric with next car).
  16. Big mistake going after booze and cigarettes during the pandemic. Pick your battles carefully. Booze stores are essential business in the US and I actually think that a smart choice. Of course it is a big mistake. The last thing you want during a pandemic is for 30-40% of your population to go through with withdrawal at the same time. Especially in a high crime place like SA. I guess these SA guys aren't all that bright. On the flip side I think there's probably a lot of moonshine is SA at this moment. Fire up them stills! As an aside, where I am right now a litter of hand sanitizer costs about as much as a bottle of Glenlivet. So someone is making money. I wonder if SD will go back to SA and restart his moonshine business. IIRC he's already making hand sanitizer from his other beer business.
  17. So is his phones ringing? If so, why the production lines are dormant? I (and millions of others I think) would like to buy N95 masks regardless of government purchases. I'd think states and private businesses would like to buy them too - so it's not even b2consumer issue. So why are the lines dormant? I'm confused too. That part is strangely written, I get the feeling that the backstory on this was cut out of the story and the line is now lacking context. Maybe he needs financing to start the lines. But even that is weird. If he went to Amazon or Walmart or ??? and offered 7m masks per month with prepayment terms, I'd think he would get easy deals, no? Edit: maybe it's the question of price? Maybe his prices are uneconomical and would be considered price gouging if compared to other sources?
  18. I am confused with this: So is his phones ringing? If so, why the production lines are dormant? I (and millions of others I think) would like to buy N95 masks regardless of government purchases. I'd think states and private businesses would like to buy them too - so it's not even b2consumer issue. So why are the lines dormant?
  19. UK based kinda private equity firm acquiring, turning around, and selling mostly industrial companies. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melrose_Industries They had good historic returns (share drop in 2016 is from large distribution: http://www.melroseplc.net/investors/dividends/ ). Share price collapsed during the pandemic. They are affected by closures across couple of their businesses: https://www.melroseplc.net/media/announcements/2020/agm-trading-statement/ I'm starting the thread for discussion. It's not a recommendation to buy. I have a small position.
  20. Let's keep some perspective here. This is beer, not vodka we're talking about. OK, a revolution will be contained to Poland and Czech republic... whew.
  21. There has been tens of editions of this one. I'd think latest editions don't really cover 70s. :)
  22. F******CKKK! Please send those 400M bottles our way instead of destroying them. Bloody capitalist pigs. Dumping perfectly good beer for shareholder profits. In Russia this would cause a revolution!
  23. If you discount at less than 10%, then there are a lot of other companies that are attractive too or maybe even more attractive. Some of them growing faster and possibly with better economics. You could discount FB and GOOG at 10% close to current prices and still make sense with current valuations.
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