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Everything posted by Jurgis
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Everytime, I did a "I can retire from this trade" I have lived to regret it Maybe plastics will work out for you. ;)
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As markets keep doing things they have never done before, things tend to break. Having worked in buy side in the past, most of tech is dated and buggy in the best of times... The companies were making upgrades and moving to new software but it takes many, many years to implement. Side note, continued good employment opportunities for programmers since so many sectors besides finance need to upgrade their software. Honestly, I was super surprised that negative contract prices did not fail or crash NYMEX or any other exchanges where they were traded. Kudos to programmers who implemented that correctly without much (if any) real world testing.
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She's Pence's secretary... so it's a virgin infection. Hallelujah!
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I am starting to understand why stocks are trading where they are trading. ::) How did that paper loss of 99% work with Valeant?
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Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it. ::) Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant. And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it. Diabetes by country: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings Hypertension prevalence by country: https://www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/blood_pressure_prevalence/en/ Hypertension deaths by country: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hypertension/by-country/ Here is my source for rural Africans as I initially mentioned: https://nutritionfacts.org/2017/04/06/high-blood-pressure-normal-but-not-natural/ I don't know who (population) your source includes. In another article, the same source, Dr. Michael Greger, says the same thing applies to rural Chinese. The key point is a largely vegan whole food diet, with meat a couple of times a year, leads to the good outcomes in blood pressure and diabetes. That is not what rich countries typically have. If Africans and Chinese adopt our diets, they will have the same results. The results cited by Dr. Greger refer to rural Africans with traditional diet. So you pick a random nutritionist blog and then make claims while disregarding the statistical data across countries? I guess that's par for the course here. Edit: That nutritionist blog cites an article in prestigious Lancet. I clicked the link. Well, yes. It is an article published in Lancet. On 5 January 1929. Great supporting data. :-X BTW, I don't have much issues with dietary suggestions in the blog. They might be totally fine.
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Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it. ::) Healthy with respect to blood pressure and diabetes particularly is what I meant. And those are key issues for this virus as I understand it. Diabetes by country: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.STA.DIAB.ZS/rankings Hypertension prevalence by country: https://www.who.int/gho/ncd/risk_factors/blood_pressure_prevalence/en/ Hypertension deaths by country: https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/hypertension/by-country/
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Only partially true if you buy delivered by Amazon. Which IMO most furniture is not.
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Yeah, sure developing countries have healthy populations. They are just crushing this chart: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy Please all go to Africa and work in subsistence farming. You'll be so healthy. Just leave all your stuff for people who decide to stay and suffer in the first world countries. They need it. ::)
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Come on, we all know that valuations doesn't matter, sentiments and story telling and future promises matter more. Who wants to own a bond like plastic packaging company trading at 6x FCF. Ewww, plastic. :)
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FYI, Motley Fool Rule Breakers hype pretty much all of the suspects mentioned upthread. Not sure how much influence they have, although I've seen couple companies jump 10%+ when they are recommended by MF RB. And clearly they hype the stock performance numbers (XXX baggers) all the time. I was thinking about (somewhat blindly) buying MF RB recos, but it's tough for someone who tries to look at valuations. I have tiny positions in some MF RB recos.
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Companies still buying back their shares
Jurgis replied to undervalued's topic in General Discussion
What kind of company is this? NVE is a leader in the practical commercialization of spintronics, a nanotechnology that relies on electron spin rather than electron charge to acquire, store and transmit information. The company manufactures high-performance spintronic products including sensors and couplers. What, what? You should read the fun facts: https://www.nve.com/funFacts.php These make everything clear, no? I think we'll have to ask Spekulatius to explain this stuff to us. -
Do you want to open a thread for LightSpeed?
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A startup I am investing in is looking for expert virologist for consultation on how their product may be made to be used for Covid. Please private message me if you have the qualifications and are interested. (Might be small chance, but decided to ask.)
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When Tailwinds Vanish: The Internet in the 2020s (John Luttig)
Jurgis replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
I disagree that Oracle did not have competition. They did. So did Microsoft. Why were they still profitable? Perhaps because before the Internet bubble nobody financed profitless growth much or for long. 20+ years ago it would have been difficult to sell huge potential TAMs to investors. Some companies could but it was likely more difficult and rare than it is now. (I am not saying that selling huge TAMs and profitless growth is bubble or irrational on the investor side, I'm just saying that the attitude towards this has changed a lot.) -
Can you imagine if Obama or W. Bush gave this job, during a pandemic with 70k deaths so far, to his cousin or brother-in-law or whatever? Deep state is to blame. It's a witch hunt - nobody wants to work for El Presidente. Only some true patriots like Jared-boy are sacrificing their lives and working 24 hour days covering the holes left by the evil apparatchiks who are gleefully pushing for Trump's downfall! Shame on deep state! Go Jared-o! Make vaccine great again!
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When Tailwinds Vanish: The Internet in the 2020s (John Luttig)
Jurgis replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
Partially OT: It seems that W2s from Ceridian cannot be autoimported to TurboTax unlike the ones from ADP. Not that businesses care about what their employees have to do during tax time. ::) -
I'm putting this thing up here again. Only this time it has scotch in it. You definitely should start selling these things.
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How to politicize a pandemic and basically blackmail people in doing your pet wishes while witholding the help that they need and deserve by being, y'know, part of the country. What he calls bailouts are actually just being a single country. When New Orleans or Mississippi or Florida gets hit by a huge hurricane and they get help, are they getting "bailed out" by the other states or is helping the worst hit places just the function of a government? The most urban states are worse hit first by pandemics, that's biology, but he's claiming this is some kind of political thing to punish enemies. How sociopathic do you have to be as people are suffering and dying? Don't the urban coastal states pay a lot more to the federal government than many of the poorer states that aren't too badly hit yet? So they are supposed to pay more and get less in return? When he bailed out farmers when his tarrifs hurt them, that was fine because it was political allies, right? Is he trying to break up the United States? Hey, we are really glad Kim Jong Un is alive and well!
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I don't think SK or NZ will have 6-10 months of lockdown. They might bounce back and forth between tighter and looser measures, but places that did this well (lockdown to crush the initial curve + masks + massive testing + contact tracing) are in much better shape. Sure. I was talking mostly US and somewhat Europe. Places that have close to zero cases + test/trace/etc probably will do fine without lock downs. And definitely will do better without lock downs than places that still have tons of cases and don't test/trace. Yeah, meanwhile in the US.. "Your honor, my client was exercising her 2nd amendment rights to kill the virus that was sitting on the guard's head".
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The problem is as follows: if mall/whatever reopened, I would go there if I knew I'd be the only person in the mall. But then store(s) don't get enough business. OTOH, if everyone rushes in, then I wouldn't go there. So likely you can't get many people there. It's also possible that there will be a bad feedback loop: people don't go to malls, cases don't rise, people think that it's safe and go to malls, then cases rise again, rinse, repeat? Restaurants are more complicated than stores. Even if I'm the only customer there, there is a risk of getting infected from the staff. More risk than if I ordered for delivery. So screw going to restaurant. Most people can’t conceptualize risk from something not visible, so they will conclude that Malls are save, because other people go there, which ironically makes them less safe. Agreed.
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I don't think SK or NZ will have 6-10 months of lockdown. They might bounce back and forth between tighter and looser measures, but places that did this well (lockdown to crush the initial curve + masks + massive testing + contact tracing) are in much better shape. Sure. I was talking mostly US and somewhat Europe. Places that have close to zero cases + test/trace/etc probably will do fine without lock downs. And definitely will do better without lock downs than places that still have tons of cases and don't test/trace.
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I am mostly for lockdowns, but this: is wishful thinking. It's not "another week or two" whether we have lock-downs or not. It's likely another 6-10 months if not longer. So maybe reopen. It will likely cause flare ups and deaths, but at least there won't be "govt is killing us by lock-down" complaints. Could not agree more. But I am sure they will find another way to blame government. Yeah, that is certain.
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I am mostly for lockdowns, but this: is wishful thinking. It's not "another week or two" whether we have lock-downs or not. It's likely another 6-10 months if not longer. So maybe reopen. It will likely cause flare ups and deaths, but at least there won't be "govt is killing us by lock-down" complaints.
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Same people who go anywhere regardless of crowds as soon as the lock-down ends.
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The problem is as follows: if mall/whatever reopened, I would go there if I knew I'd be the only person in the mall. But then store(s) don't get enough business. OTOH, if everyone rushes in, then I wouldn't go there. So likely you can't get many people there. It's also possible that there will be a bad feedback loop: people don't go to malls, cases don't rise, people think that it's safe and go to malls, then cases rise again, rinse, repeat? Restaurants are more complicated than stores. Even if I'm the only customer there, there is a risk of getting infected from the staff. More risk than if I ordered for delivery. So screw going to restaurant.