Jurgis

A lot will depend on whether reopenings cause cases/deaths increase (a lot). If they don't, then people seem to be willing to go back to normal activities (see https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/what-activities-you-would-do-(if-your-local-economy-reopened)/ thread). This won't guarantee a full recovery, but it would lay foundations to mostly V recovery and then Mr. Market might be right to be at current prices.

I think that's wrong conclusion to draw. Flu infections don't hit all at the same time as covid infections kinda did.

Perhaps they should borrow some Canadian geese that do this to most parks for free. But go Lund!

- Traffic definitely has picked up since the lockdown started. When lockdown started, streets were dead. Now we are still in lockdown, but traffic is ~50% volume (approximately). - We got single use masks sent by Amazon from Kentucky on March 27. Arrived yesterday. I already got refund for that. There are some issues with USPS I guess. - There was toilet paper in grocery store. Hurray! - Still waiting for toilet paper I ordered from Walmart.com - Standing in line outside the store to get into the store sucks. Soviet Russia is calling! - We are going for walks. Installed bird recognizer app that records bird song and does recognition. Cool stuff. - The town did leaf bag removal. I almost expected they gonna cancel this service. - I don't eat meat, but shop seemed well stocked despite the meat plant closures. - Our cashier in the grocery store was coughing. Oh well.... Goodbye CoBF.

Shopping (TJ Maxx) once a month or so choosing time when store is not packed (would hate to stand in line to enter the shop too). Nothing else really that we are not already doing. We are already going for walks, going grocery shopping once a week, going to hardware stores when we need something, ordering food for delivery. I will not do anything else (like meeting with friends, eating out, going to public events, going to activities where a number of people meet) until MA infections drop to ~200 per day and deaths drop to ~ <5 per day. ( https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-april-28-2020/download ). Or vaccine or cure is available. I may change my opinion though.

OK, so we are living in computer simulation. And whoever runs the simulation is having fun dickering with the viruses. Maybe the whole point of simulation is dickering with viruses and humans are just test subjects or sideshow.

How do you stop the oil rig workers from blowing up oil rigs? TERM LIMITS 1 & done.

I love how the thread title changed from "Let rentiers fail" to "Let renters fail". ::)

Universal is so f'ed! ... ... Wait... ... Actually AMC is so f'ed...

Pretty much this.

So many Darwin award candidates, so few viruses.

I am not sure what you are doing, but you should keep doing it. Peace brother.

Can we sue it if there is no coronavirus litigation boom? Oh wait. ::)

I voted "yes", but I missed the "By End of April" part (or it was not there when I voted). I took a look at OP and it does not mention "April", though the thread title does. My bad, shoulda learn to read - or shoulda make note on what I read. Overall, I am +1 with rb. I don't know what went at 1-2 PE at March bottom, but I doubt it was anything I was looking at. Good/great companies were moderately attractive: I bought FB and GOOGL, but they were not even close to 10 PE, and definitely not 1-2PE. V probably did not go below 25PE (too lazy to lookup :)). I also bought DFS, EXPE, BKNG, but these are not going for 1-2 PE either, since EXPE and BKNG definitely will have large losses and DFS... who knows. I also bought some airline related stocks that I have since sold. I can't say they went for 1-2 PE either. I still think that market is not forward looking enough and not discounting the slow grind back to normal enough. But it's possible that Fed will just continue puking $$$$ and govt may continue to add stimulus. So then market may not go down to March lows. All that said, I have sold some stuff (that I may regret selling) and I am at ~30% cash now. Disclaimer: I may change my opinion at any time and buy/sell/etc. Do your own DD. My opinions may carry no alpha, beta, gamma or any other letters of greek alphabet.

Makes sense.

How much would you trust the test results? Serious question. See the Bayesian arguments + the (atrocious?) reliability rates of antibody tests.

Ship them to Lithuania! Or ship them to US! There was at least couple times there were no potatoes in the grocery store when we went there.

Economics is a harsh mistress. You might want to run a restaurant where your chef would like to eat and could afford it on chef's salary. You might want to run a restaurant out of love and do the best for your customers and staff. You may earn awards and a torrent of thanks and well wishes. But it's unlikely these patrons would have paid you 20-30% more so your restaurant would be rent-increase proof (if not Covid proof). Unfortunately, there's little space in the economy for businesses run out of love (unless they are also run out of deep pockets filled elsewhere). One could even argue that these destroy the business aspect for others who are trying to survive and run their places - whether out of love or out of business. Still sad. Short term, customers are the ones who win. Long term, the owners and the staff are people who lose. Covid only magnified this X-fold. It's not always this way. My partners and I are part of a community group that is helping 2 family-run community restaurants through Covid-19. Version 2.0 of the restaurants are both re-builds from the floor boards up, and will be re-starting life with recycled/upgraded equipment, zero debt, months of donated prepaid rent, and a direct line into a culinary schools flow of new graduates. Mom and dad retired, and their kids running the place, with business advice from 2 conseiller. SD Nice to hear.

Because Munger is old and tired and does not want the hassle and does not give a crap and feels no obligation to engage faceless horde of not-really-fans (hey just judging based on reactions to his interview)? And Ajit is not a spotlight seeker. Though it's possible Warren did not even invite him. It sometimes seems that people feel entitled to the day worth of entertainment. Warren is happy to oblige... so far. Also audio meetings suck. 8)

Economics is a harsh mistress. You might want to run a restaurant where your chef would like to eat and could afford it on chef's salary. You might want to run a restaurant out of love and do the best for your customers and staff. You may earn awards and a torrent of thanks and well wishes. But it's unlikely these patrons would have paid you 20-30% more so your restaurant would be rent-increase proof (if not Covid proof). Unfortunately, there's little space in the economy for businesses run out of love (unless they are also run out of deep pockets filled elsewhere). One could even argue that these destroy the business aspect for others who are trying to survive and run their places - whether out of love or out of business. Still sad. Short term, customers are the ones who win. Long term, the owners and the staff are people who lose. Covid only magnified this X-fold.

This is one I am unsure about too. Th NY antibody study with a 21% positive rate in NYC let’s me believe, that there will be too many active cases to prevent further spreading regardless of what we do with test and trace. The testing is probably capacity is probably 2 order of magnitude too lower to test most people if we open the economy, which we have to do no matter what, before the vaccine is a factor in 18 month (best case). So in opinion this means that we go down the path of heard immunity, at least in bigger cities, but most likely everywhere unless we constrain movement between states or even cities for 18 month. Now heard immunity or vaccines may or may not even exist or be feasible, but no matter, virtually everyone just isn’t get the virus in this case sooner or later. I would like hear different viewpoints on how we still contain this using test and trace from out current starting point of test capacity and the likely opening of the economy in May or early June. Also, I would like to hear if anyone thinks that schools can be closed for 18 month. Opening up a school (which can be staggered into kindergartens, elementary school etc) will simultaneously expose a large number of people to the virus and most likely create a significant spike in cases, no matter how we do it. Can we keep them closed? Should we? I don’t think we can, but others may have a different viewpoint. I guess you are saying that we cannot reopen and keep the R0 below one. And that any significant reopening (e.g. one that includes schools) will spread the virus across (most of) entire population if we look at ~12-18 month period. Unfortunately, this sounds a possible - and grim - scenario. Basically this will cause IFR deaths across 40-70% of population. Plus whatever non-fatal Covid aftereffects. I don't think I can suggest a way out unless cure or vaccine or both are discovered faster than in 12-18 months. You are quite possibly right that lockdown with R0 < 1 won't work for 12-18 months. Perhaps social distancing, hand washing and masks after lockdown will be enough to prevent full spread of the virus. Perhaps in US the car culture will be another factor to limit the spread. But I think I agree with you that it won't be easy to avoid bad scenarios if there's no cure/vaccine soon.

My wife is participating in the "open to everyone who has Oura ring" part of this study: https://ouraring.com/ucsf-tempredict-study She's gonna get a free antibody test as a part of this. Gonna be interesting.

Ordered Thai for delivery today. Took 2.5 hours to get the food. FML. #LetThemEatThai

We went for a lakeside walk today. Pretty busy. Less than half people with masks. Much more masks in the grocery shops (which makes sense). Ordered Thai for delivery. A bunch of restaurants that were open for delivery now closed. OTOH, I think some that were closed before now open. Still pretty large selection. Got the single-use masks that we ordered from Chinese 3rd party seller on Amazon. Got hand sanitizer from Amazon. Not Chinese, US based, but expensive. Ordered toilet paper from Walmart.com. Haven't received yet. Our local Stop & Shop grocery shop still pretty empty shelves. Market Basket is a better. Lithuania is mostly reopening, which I think is a mistake since they have had couple flare ups. They require masks in public, but almost all shops are supposed to open. Small social events for people not in risk groups are going to be allowed too. We'll see how that works out.

Good points.