Jurgis

Anyone who is interested needs to understand how proxy data is used. Proxy data can be risky depending on the strength of the relationship. If it breaks down, your model breaks down. And it must make sense therefore human judgement is still required. Using credit card data as a proxy for consumer spending seems reasonable. Using this same data as a proxy for R&D spending in a nuclear energy company may not be reasonable. I was just going to post this. 8) The other interesting part of that article: This paragraph shows why it's tough to build models that do fundamental analysis. Even if you take 500 companies in SP500 and take 10 years of financial reports, you have 5K data points. Even if you take quarterlies, you still have only 20K data points. Compare that to image classification datasets that run into million examples. Since you likely can't build a single model for companies in different sectors (e.g. it's unlikely that E&P and retailer will share characteristics), the data point number drops even more way down. That's one of the reasons quants don't do a lot of fundamental analysis. Value investors tend to think that they have an edge over algos because machines can't handle business fundamentals. It's quite possible that machines can handle business fundamentals just fine - given enough data. If quants can figure out how to get enough data or build models with less data required, look out. 8)

IAC should just buy this, install good management, ..., profit. Someone talk to Barry.

QFT. LOL. 8) I partially agree with this. Being good at tech likely needed, but not sufficient to be promoted as a manager. (Maybe that's what james22 meant). There's a wide swath of tech people who either don't want to manage or even if they do, they are not good at it. The ones who don't want to manage usually are not made managers although there are exceptions (mostly in rapidly growing companies). Those who want and are not good at it get to be managers quite often and then people under them suffer. Sometimes for long time and multiple iterations of promotions, sometimes for short while. Then there are people who are good or very good at managing and at managing their career/promotions. Those go fastest. Although being good at managing the career/promotions is likely most important assuming you're good in tech and don't completely suck in managing. Mostly this is independent of MBA as far as I know. We had a company-paid MBAs in one of my tech company jobs. The people who did it were not good in management or career management and did not really go up very far AFAIK.

This is partly true: yes, people can invest in private companies with way less info, way less liquidity, and way less business results (and quite often pre-business) compared to public companies or even pink sheet companies. OTOH, even in this world of money sloshing around, it's not that "easy" to raise money as private company. Depends a lot on your business and your numbers. Although for companies that have the numbers to go public it's likely possible to raise and stay private.

Some fun Buffett MSFT tidbits on John Huber website: http://sabercapitalmgt.com/warren-buffett-1997-email-exchange-on-microsoft/ (John has an account on CoBF but posts very rarely.)

Here is the Cigarbutt we love. 8) You know what side your bread is buttered on. ;)

$2.99 on sale at Amazon today.

AI Superpowers China Silicon Valley and the New World Order, by Kai-Fu Lee $2.99 on sale today at Amazon: https://smile.amazon.com/AI-Superpowers-China-Silicon-Valley/dp/132854639X/ref=sr_1_2?crid=EN8UTCBQOB4I&keywords=ai+superpowers&qid=1577393419&smid=A1KUURLZXZKET0&sprefix=ai+super%2Caps%2C157&sr=8-2 I browsed, but I did not buy. Seems like not much new for decently informed person.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/12/10/a-self-driving-truck-delivered-butter-from-california-to-pennsylvania-in-three-days/

Happy Holidays! I was browsing my old stuff pile today and came up with this nugget from Forbes, March 30, 2009: All I can say: good luck to everyone at CoBF! 8)

I found this startup that provides online configuration and quotes without registration: https://renoviso.com/entry-doors/c3 They have quotes for windows/doors/siding/roofing. I think their prices are close to bottom prices you can get for particular project. Might be a good resource to get pricing even for people not in their area. I'm not sure we gonna go with them, since there's a risk that their contractors are not that great. We'll see if we gonna get any quotes that are at least close to what their quotes are. For our project, their quote for Therma Tru door is about $1.6K (we have a quote from contractor for $2.6K!). Their quote for ProVia door is about $2.9K (we have a quote for ~3.4K).

The only cheap connection I have is Vietnamese hardwood floor guys. They've done our floors couple times and it's really well priced. Unfortunately they specialize in hardwood floors only and don't do anything else. Maybe they'd recommend someone if I talked Vietnamese, but I don't.

Thanks. Some estimates do not split the price of the door and the price of the work. And they don't specify the door model/number/extras exactly, so it's tough to lookup just the door price and subtract. I have a feeling that they are charging way too much for either door or work, but I can't prove that without being able to price compare the materials. At least the 2.8K door-only guy tells directly that the door is 2.8K. So I know he's not overpricing the work and can decide whether he's overpricing the door. Most installers don't (like to) install prepurchased doors. So you can't split door/install cost that way easily either. I guess I could go Spekulatius way: buy the door at HD and get HD install service. This has some drawbacks too.

Seems expensive. I got my front door replaced a couple of years ago for ~1.5k. This was for a larger door (~60” double door with glass). The door cost was ~1.1k ( Home Depot) and installation ~ $400. This was a couple of years ago when contractors were really hungry for jobs. I am hearing nowadays that people get outrageous quotes for all sorts of things. Home Depot also has an installation service, so it’s worth getting A quote from them. A door installation isn’t really a difficult job as long as the size doesn’t change, so even a good handyman might be able to do it. Thanks for the numbers. Some quotes I got do not split work and doors cost. The one that does has $800 maybe discounted to $400 for work. The door is way more expensive. It's a Provia and it's at ~$2.9K just for the door. Of course, they claim this is way superior to HD door. What I've seen suggested as OK prices online is $1.5K installed for a-bit-better-than-HD (Therma Tru) door. Haven't found anyone who would give a price close to that though. Anyway, this is helpful. I still wonder why garage doors are so much cheaper. ;D

I have a specific question, but perhaps this can be a topic for any home project questions/answers. We are looking to replace couple back entry doors. We are getting quotes in the area of $2.5K-3.5K per door installed (fiberglass Therma Tru / Provia). I have a value investor 8) ;) question: how come a garage door costs ~1.5K installed while entry door is 1K-2K more expensive? Both are doors, garage doors are way larger and IMO more complicated (multi panels), both doors have glass, insulation, etc. Is it just that people are ripping off the entry door customers? Curious value investors want to know. ;D

AFAIK, the cloud gaming is not only about computing, but is also has a different revenue model. You pay $20 a month for example and can play any game on their servers. This revenue model has been around for ages. Stadia Pro does not allow to play "any game on their servers". It allows you to play a selection of games. Xbox Games With Gold, Xbox Game Pass, Playstation Now, EA Access all offer the same. With differing selection of games of course.

I don't see what Stadia brings to the business side of things that Steam has not done ages ago. Stadia is completely different technical solution, but business-side wise, it's not there there.

Actually Steam is blowing Battle.net ;)

Go Oddball! ;D Screw Tesla. My next car is a tank. 8)

Just FYI Geico is not directly writing umbrella insurance in a bunch of states. They will agressively refer you to the insurance agencies they work with. These insurance agencies may or may not be good/cheaply priced/etc. Geico gets referral fees, but provides no guarantee for the product. Similar situation exists with "Geico" home insurance, etc.

LMSTFY: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/personal-finance/umbrella-insurance/

What do you think about SCHW? (Maybe we should move discussion to SCHW thread). It has done very well historically, it seems to drive the changes in brokerage industry and do quite well in sidelining competition. OTOH, I wonder if zero commissions will launch even more aggressive competition across the field with everyone losing more than gaining. Also, as you say, it will be impacted by narrowing margins if rates stay low.

One of the bearish analysts kept their bearish target, but was impressed with Giga Factory and said that Tesla is ahead of competition there.

As we are coming up to 2020, it might be time to revisit my predictions for 2020 made in 2015: First prediction is pretty much spot on: https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/10-automakers-equipped-most-their-2018-vehicles-automatic-emergency-braking Second prediction is way behind. It only makes the cut if we count 5.X M autos sold and count ~200K Teslas with Autopilot as "driverless-but-human-in-loop-for-unexpected". This would be Elon-sized exaggeration, so I'll go with my prediction being wrong. Let's get back again in 2025 for the 10-year predictions, which are way harder to get right. ;D

https://possector.com/management/restaurant-failure https://possector.com/management/restaurant-failure "Watch the video to hear the hosts of “Restaurant Startup” discuss why restaurants fail." If someone suggested a 'buy and hold' investment to you that could make a lot of money, but which also might well result in a capital wipe-out within a 3 year holding period, they would be scoffed at. An example being OBE ... ;) But 'package' that same risk of capital loss as 'owning a restaurant' - and suddenly it's a great idea! There is nothing wrong in taking a risk - but be very clear on if/how you are going to mitigate that risk, and whether the expected return is ultimately worth the effort. One can swing-trade a stock; with the objectives of either recovering capital, or averaging down the cost base. Sometimes it works, sometimes not so much, but you have the ability. Don't have that with a restaurant. Every publicly listed equity comes with a professional board of directors and management, that know their business. You may think them idiots, but they are paid to 'run' the business, and they do it professionally all day, every day of the week - so that you don't have to. You can own the business, and at the same time - make as much as you wish, someplace else. Can't do that with a restaurant. Just a different POV. SD What you said applies to a lot of other startups and angel investing, not just restaurants. So QFT. 8)