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Jurgis

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Everything posted by Jurgis

  1. Meet new IBM/Microsoft/Walmart/Home Depot the same as old IBM/Microsoft/Walmart/Home Depot.
  2. QFT everything oddball said. Re revenue: startups are in a bubble (oh no B-word! 8) ) too. Pretty much anybody who is anybody is looking at ~$6M pre-money with no revenue. And that's just at the angel level.
  3. There was a whole session on ML in financial data analysis at ICML 2019 ( https://icml.cc/ExpoConferences/2019/schedule?talk_id=6 ) from Point 72 / Cubist ( you know who: https://www.point72.com/ ). As a good industry presenter though he mostly raised the questions rather than telling what they do/use/apply/etc. He did cover investing for periods longer than a day 8) but did not talk much about periods longer than couple months. So your buy-forever investments might still be safe from AI/ML. I would not try to compete with these guys in day trading or even month trading. Unless you work on illiquid securities that they don't touch. He talked about the issue of knowing whether a strategy/algorithm is temporarily underperforming or lost alpha forever. I asked him about this for more detail and his answer was pretty reasonable: if underperformance is similar to what was seen in the past, then continue; if not, then likely pull the plug. Of course, this is on very general level. There was a lot of recruitment too. Mostly from quant funds. Bloomberg was there (small booth with one rather bored guy), Citadel too. I can try to look up / remember other names if someone is very interested. As a true value investor I just took the swag. 8)
  4. I met the PI of the Carnagie Mellon team at a conference while he was discussing Libratus. There was a joint talk on Libratus and DeepStack at AAAI 2017: http://www.aaai.org/Conferences/AAAI/2017/aaai17speakers.php (search for Poker panel)
  5. https://www.virgingalactic.com/articles/virgin-galactic-and-social-capital-hedosophia-announce-merger-to-create-the-worlds-first-and-only-publicly-traded-commercial-human-spaceflight-company/ You can now own (a piece of) spaceship too!
  6. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02156-9 - AI Poker Bot Is First to Beat Professionals at Multiplayer Game I fold for AI. 8)
  7. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/start-up-ideas-where-to-look-for/msg363418/#msg363418 Yeah, I know the thread is about something a bit different, but Pelagic's pointers are pretty good for what you are looking for too. E.g. there are additional subreddit's closer to what you are looking for. YMMV. Edit 2: you can also ask here, there are CoBFers involved in startups both on investing and on working-in-startup side. Although some of them don't post much. Personally I've done a bit on both sides (angel investing and working/running startups), but I have very little experience with "Dealing with VC investors, finding HR & accounting vendors, buying insurance, issuing visas for foreign employees, and running cap tables". I know a bit about ML startups. If you want to talk about anything, ask here or shoot me personal message for offline conversation. Good luck.
  8. writser wanted a riot on CoBF. HE GOT IT! Stop pulling the punches guys. Get your BFGs, grenade launchers, fireballs and nuke each other into smithereens. Preferably live on Twitch. With smack talking. We want to see your rigs! We want to watch your skillz! We'll pay some good (in-game) money for that! Let's Ruuumble! #letsRUMBL
  9. Another downside: My relatives had an original piece by pretty well known Lithuanian painter. Beginning of XX century, but Lithuanian, so probably five figures, not six figures. Maybe even below five figures. Anyway, they went abroad, other relatives lived in the apartment, some stuff got packed and moved by various parties... result: painting gone. Lot's of negative emotions, blame, etc. Personally, I'm more sad that this painting hung in Soviet-style heated apartment for 50 years or so. Can only imagine the loss of quality due to overdamp/overdry conditions... Not that my house has much better climate control. :'( At some point I wanted to buy some Dali/Renoir/whoever "original" prints for my mom. But then I read about the scaminess of the print market and said, I'd better spend money on something else... ::) Another aside: couple years ago it was still possible to buy a well known (not the best, but close to best) early XX century Lithuanian painter good quality paintings in five figure range. I thought about buying, but did not. You'd still have to hire someone to check provenance. You likely won't get permission to export and I had no interest to keep it somewhere in a vault. It might not rerate higher either. A lot of Russian/Chinese art rerated up hugely as Russians/Chinese got rich. Might be too few (rich) Lithuanians for Lithuanian art to rerate hugely. ::) There might be some pieces that I'd like just for enjoyment, but if I started looking to buy, I'd probably go DD on it and spend too much time researching the stuff. :-\
  10. I am in the same camp as Foreign Tuffett. I tried collecting various stuff (stamps, playing cards, old books, coins, art) and I wasn't good at it plus my heart wasn't in it either. Plus you really have to go superdeep DD IMO so that you are not ripped of, defrauded, etc. Know the provenance, quality - or really trust external experts for that. I think I'm too much functionality oriented to collect non-functional objects and not enough rare/top functionality connoisseur to collect Ferraris or Les Pauls. I think I have destroyed quality of some coins while "cleaning" them when I was a kid. So I guess I contributed to rarity premium for other collectors. 8) BTW, on topic we just went to Peabody Essex Museum. There's a show of collection of Peter Lynch and his wife: paintings/furniture/etc. For anyone interested. 8)
  11. Do you think this is positive or negative or just infoporn? I can see both positive and negative interpretations for this: Positive: New/additional business for GHG modelling. ESG funds invest in shares (if you want the shares to go up). Negative: Management just added ESG promotional tidbit which generates no business, but promotes shares to ESG suckers investors. Neutral: "Let's add this sentence and see if Foreign Tuffett anyone notices". ;) A management team that doesn't do earnings call or IR presentations inserted two sentences on page 48 of the annual proxy because it's trying to promote the stock to "suckers?" That isn't even plausible. * Edited for clarity. OK. How about this then: the company is described above as nerd/Ph.D. heaven. So perhaps they added two sentences because they thought it was cool from physics/engineering perspective, and they have the feature, and they are proud of it, but it's quite possibly not gonna add any significant business (anytime soon). It would be interesting to hear if any customers are buying their product because of the GHG modelling capabilities.
  12. Do you think this is positive or negative or just infoporn? I can see both positive and negative interpretations for this: Positive: New/additional business for GHG modelling. ESG funds invest in shares (if you want the shares to go up). Negative: Management just added ESG promotional tidbit which generates no business, but promotes shares to ESG suckers investors. Neutral: "Let's add this sentence and see if Foreign Tuffett anyone notices". ;)
  13. Yeah I see these low cost renewable claims quite a lot. But are they using real math or the new enviro math? As Bjorn Lomborg states.... @BjornLomborg Solar and wind at ¢5/kWh — when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. If you want it with batteries included and at 100%, the cost soars to an unaffordable $0.70-$1.1/kWh http://euanmearns.com/the-cost-of-wind-solar-power-batteries-included/ Somebody rush to Greg Abel and stop him before he uses enviro math! Oh no, too late... The government is doing the math & taxpayers and consumers will be on the hook. Nice guaranteed high return PPA's are a great investment So you are saying that Abel and Buffett are lying when they say that BHE energy prices are cheaper than competitors'?
  14. Yeah I see these low cost renewable claims quite a lot. But are they using real math or the new enviro math? As Bjorn Lomborg states.... @BjornLomborg Solar and wind at ¢5/kWh — when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing. If you want it with batteries included and at 100%, the cost soars to an unaffordable $0.70-$1.1/kWh http://euanmearns.com/the-cost-of-wind-solar-power-batteries-included/ Somebody rush to Greg Abel and stop him before he uses enviro math! Oh no, too late...
  15. CAPEs worldwide: https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-valuation/
  16. Jet.com and Walmart.com are still different platforms, which IMO sucks for customers. I have to lookup and price any purchases on both - and yeah they have different merchandise. Not sure if they have different prices - I think they did some time ago, but perhaps they fixed that at least. I know integration is hard, but so is running two e-commerce platforms. ::)
  17. I can't comment about the rest of your post, but large piece of the bear narrative was that Tesla will deliver way below the range they landed. Although I am not a bear, I expected deliveries to be way lower too.
  18. I have an idea: some online lender should make a loan for someone to buy Kanodia's house. Everyone would be happy: Bank of Internet would be saved, Kanodia would have sold his house, online lender would have made a yuge loan showing a yuge growth for its shareholders and buyer would have a 180mln dollar house. Talk about win-win-win-win.
  19. DTEJD1997, you are totally right. The schools that cheat, lie, and defraud are called "for profit colleges". I am sure you will talk to your congress/senate persons to regulate these stronger including revoking federal student loans unless these skools clean up their act. Maybe support the lawsuits against these companies, their management and shareholders too. Way to go!
  20. GS/Marcus/Dell is just talking their own book. At least Bloomberg journalist is not completely gaga:
  21. Source of this information? Thanks Why would they need to take down the old one to build a new one? It's like this: you buy an old crappy house; first you demolish it, then you remove the rubble, then you build a new one on the empty space that you cleaned up. Edit: this is parody/sarcasm/joke/etc. for fun deprived.
  22. One of the best interviews (across all people I've listened to) I've heard for quite a while. Some nice zingers for quite a few flaming threads on CoBF if people listened.
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