Jurgis

Yes, and the degrees should be repossessed in the process. That is a perfectly acceptable solution...BUT FOR ONE THING...the educators that profited in the creation of these things also need to be addressed. Perhaps they should also pay a penalty? I know SCORES of attorney that have paid TENS of thousands of dollars toward their student loans, that have worked for YEARS, that would GLADLY give up their license and be barred from ever practicing law in the future in exchange for simple cancellation of their remaining student loans. Yes! Teachers should be forced to pay reparations to anyone who was ever in a classroom of any kind. And there should be special pain and suffering payments for anyone who ever received a grade that is lower than what they felt they deserved. While we're on it, we should also round up and deport any parents who have sent their kids into skools and collages.

There are no businesses that a ham sandwich cannot destroy. If you buy a business that's not run by a great operator, you can only expect that the management is not worse than mediocre and therefore won't destroy it (much). If you buy crappy business, you either need luck or great operator or both and it still might not be enough. (This is all about long term investing. You can buy crappy business for reversal to mean, short term activist boost, special situations, etc. That's not covered by above.)

Now I'm in a bynd... I'll have to eat their sausages to do Lucifer's work on Earth... even if I don't like them. ::)

Bought BYND sausages and burger @ Wegmans. Did not like the sausages. :( Trader Joe's veggie sausages taste better for me. Did not try the burger yet.

But it's perfectly fine to print money and give it to rich people.

I think your take is actually pretty close to the Fed’s baseline forecast, namely the economy does fine and they don’t cut during 2019. The reason they’re slightly more dovish than what you think is appropriate is that they now see some negative economic indicators showing up and inflation is undershooting their target. What I find pretty strange is the extreme confidence with which the bond market is predicting multiple rate cuts this year and how happy Mr (Stock) Market seems to be about all this. The Fed has pretty much indicated that rate cuts are not forthcoming this year unless the economy starts deteriorating. So if the bond market is right and rates are going down big time that means the economy is going to do pretty badly. Will stocks do great under such circumstances? I don’t think so. Well said.

Why should fed cut here? Economy is doing great, stock market is doing great, unemployment is super low, rates are very low historically speaking ( what RuleNumberOne said ). Everyone's in the market and they want the fed to cut to get 1999 repeat? And what next? Just give us another bubble? I think fed should raise rather than cut. But hey just go with the market lemmings experts.

Our CoBF European (or just Danish?) friends should be buying RE hand over fist for negative mortgages. 8)

I'm still reading through it, but IMO it's a great book that shows how algorithms appear in our everyday life. Some investing applicability too. I really thought that there was already thread that mentioned this, but I can't find it. Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B015CKNWJI/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_U_QbhbDbT2NRPVN

What are the odds you are offering? 70-30. But I won't make a real bet since (a) there's no platform that I'd trust (b) if bet amount would have to be pre-deposited, it's a negative return even if I win. B isn't true if the two people betting can agree on a suitable investment to keep the funds that they would otherwise both hold. When Buffett made his hedge fund vs S&P bet, they put the money in zero coupon treasuries, and then switched to BRK after treasuries rocketed, and did very well. Surely there would be some compounder the two parties could agree on... Fair enough. We could deposit money into Fairfax... ... ... ::) 8)

What are the odds you are offering? 70-30. But I won't make a real bet since (a) there's no platform that I'd trust (b) if bet amount would have to be pre-deposited, it's a negative return even if I win.

Feel free to start a new 10 year return poll and we can see the results in 10 years. I would be willing to bet real money that Fairfax return will be below 15% annual for next 10 years.

Sad.

What KCLarkin said. 8)

I'm at ICML 2019, Long Beach, CA tomorrow through Friday, June 14th. Gonna be too busy to organize anything and evenings are all shot with conference activities. But if you're at the conference or super local, we could grab a lunch (Long Beach walking distance pretty much only). Just PM.

Yes, it's spelled "Gekko", people! https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0094291/characters/nm0000140?ref_=tt_cl_t9

I think Buffett will have a lot of fun. I think he probably would be much more bored if a value investing wannabe bought the lunch. Not that he'd show it.

Perhaps you did not mean this as a punt, so I withdraw my characterization. 8) I was adding to what you wrote, agreeing with you, I wasn't replying to your question. I see how it could be ambiguous the was I quoted both of you. OK, I misunderstood what you meant. 8)

Please tell me a single business where you know the outlook for 30 years with high degree of confidence. banks Both you and Liberty are just punting: you are not naming a single business and you are not providing outlook. Taking banks: in 30 years there will be at least 2-3 financial crises. If you pick a single bank that exists now, it might be bankrupt in 30 years. How am I punting? I never claimed to be able to predict 30 years ahead with a high level of confidence. Your initial answer was: Perhaps you did not mean this as an actual prediction or answer to my question, so I withdraw my characterization. 8)

Please tell me a single business where you know the outlook for 30 years with high degree of confidence. banks Both you and Liberty are just punting: you are not naming a single business and you are not providing outlook. Taking banks: in 30 years there will be at least 2-3 financial crises. If you pick a single bank that exists now, it might be bankrupt in 30 years. My position is that it's too hard of a question in Visa' case. I don't think I need to name a single business to support the point that I made. You are applying a higher standard because you disagree with me. That's fine, you are welcome to disagree. Anyway, I do have a large chunk of WFC as a 'single bank' pick and I don't think the odds of bankruptcy in 2-3 financial crises are anywhere near as high as you are suggesting. I am confident that you don't know where WFC will be in 30 years: what size it will be, what profitability it will have, and even if it will exist at all. However, this argument is not resolvable, so let's leave it at that. Fair enough. Look it always comes back to price or it's not investing. At the current price for Visa, I think you need to have greater certainty about the long-term durability of its business model than I am able to build conviction on. It sounds like Liberty has built that conviction. I'm not even saying that this is wrong, just that I personally can't get there. Visa is a wonderful business that everyone knows about and I feel it is to some extent reflected in the price. At a different price, I wouldn't apply such a high bar to the long-term durability. It's not possible to know with certainty an exact projection of a single company, like you are posing to me as a counterfactual. But I have a much stronger view on the long-term durability of WFC's ROE than Visa relative to its current price. OK, fair enough, I mostly agree with your latest thoughts, good luck. 8)

Please tell me a single business where you know the outlook for 30 years with high degree of confidence. banks Both you and Liberty are just punting: you are not naming a single business and you are not providing outlook. Taking banks: in 30 years there will be at least 2-3 financial crises. If you pick a single bank that exists now, it might be bankrupt in 30 years. My position is that it's too hard of a question in Visa' case. I don't think I need to name a single business to support the point that I made. You are applying a higher standard because you disagree with me. That's fine, you are welcome to disagree. Anyway, I do have a large chunk of WFC as a 'single bank' pick and I don't think the odds of bankruptcy in 2-3 financial crises are anywhere near as high as you are suggesting. I am pretty confident that you don't know where WFC will be in 30 years: what size it will be, what profitability it will have, and even if it will exist at all. However, this argument is not resolvable, so let's leave it at that.

Please tell me a single business where you know the outlook for 30 years with high degree of confidence. banks Both you and Liberty are just punting: you are not naming a single business and you are not providing outlook. Taking banks: in 30 years there will be at least 2-3 financial crises. If you pick a single bank that exists now, it might be bankrupt in 30 years.

Please tell me a single business where you know the outlook for 30 years with high degree of confidence.

I don't follow EBAY in depth, but you might be right. I believe cars were big on EBAY some time ago. Not sure if they still own that vertical or it has declined as other online car purchasing sites appeared.

I've never been at competitive level in these games, but I can see how it sucks for someone to be at the top of the game and miss the commercialization and hefty contracts. In some ways timing and luck matters. Best. 8)