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Everything posted by Jurgis
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First step of treatment: give the hospital all your cryptocoins. ... Profit! (for hospital)
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You can't invert: - You are starting from example of one. Assuming aliens are similar to humans is hubris and has close to zero chance being right. - Humans do not have capacity to "find a planet with intelligent alien life" right now - assuming you mean sending a probe or spaceship. When we have the capacity, the ways we would handle it will likely have significantly changed. It's like asking a sixteenth century person "what humans would do if they sailed to Mars"? "Duh of course we'd subjugate natives, convert them to Catholicism, rob their temples of gold, then mine for gold, establish colonies and grow sugarcane.". Was that answer very helpful when you compare at what actually happened in 20th century?
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Seriously? :o
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Is it worth spending time to read this assuming you have already followed the Theranos saga on CoBF and press? Is there something interesting/new in the book beyond the schadenfreude?
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So Icahn pretty much screwed Ackman.
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He who dies with the most toys wins! 8) Apropos: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/bankers-don-t-think-you-re-rich-unless-you-have-25-million
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This might be better use of time than some of the investment (??) threads you know. 8)
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ZAR.DB.A - Zargon Oil & Gas Convertible 8% Dec 2019
Jurgis replied to Cardboard's topic in Investment Ideas
I asked a question about another Canadian convert on CoBF in the past and got an answer, but my CoBF-fu is weak too so I can't find it. 8) Edit: Found it: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/convertible-bond-yielding-gt-20/10/ -
ZAR.DB.A - Zargon Oil & Gas Convertible 8% Dec 2019
Jurgis replied to Cardboard's topic in Investment Ideas
You may not be able to buy this if you're in US. Maybe through some IB-fu if someone here knows and tells you how. -
He who dies with the most toys wins! 8)
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watsa_is_a_randian_hero explained it well. Anecdotally, whenever I looked where my earnings and net worth fall, the numbers were pretty consistent with https://dqydj.com/net-worth-by-age-calculator-united-states/ and https://dqydj.com/the-net-worth-of-different-age-groups-in-america/ numbers. Although it's likely that all the numbers are coming from the same single source anyway.
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I think I agree with KCLarkin on: Which I don't. So I think I mostly gave up on trying the top-X restaurants. I might want to try https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiro_Dreams_of_Sushi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukiyabashi_Jiro though likely I won't ever make an effort to book it half-year in advance and then book a trip to Tokyo for same date. ::)
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I agree with Spekulatius. Verizon&co have incentive to advertise their best tests and fast rollout. In reality performance will likely be much worse and the rollout will likely be quite slow. How fast will they invest? Will the cut their dividends? I don't know. Historically though the newG rollouts were slower and had worse performance than expected for some time. I've had internet through fixed wireless cable-replacement pitch hmm maybe 5 or 7 years ago now? That company is BK AFAIK or at least not in business. Not saying that Verizon will go BK, since they are mobile powerhouse and in good financial shape. Not saying 5G is DOA. But likely cable replacement part is not gonna go fast or deliver as good performance as advertised. At least for couple years. 5-10 years out... who knows.
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Partially OT: I just looked at Kindle excerpt of "The Four Pillars of Investing". The author in chapter 1 makes the same point about survival bias and hindsight bias that I made about Buffett's claim this year that it was "obvious" to everyone that US will win the WWII and therefore investing in US markets in 1942 was a gimme. Author has some good examples. 8) Even if one thinks that this lesson does not apply to US now, it might be a good one to keep in mind when proclaiming bright future for countries X, Y, Z and terrible future for countries W, T, U. These are not as knowable as they seem in hindsight.
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I agree with Spekulatius. Verizon&co have incentive to advertise their best tests and fast rollout. In reality performance will likely be much worse and the rollout will likely be quite slow.
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Thanks guys. Fido should not mislead investors by saying that fund is closed. Should just say that it's not available. I guess since it's not available nobody bothered to change the message or something. I could complain but probably won't bother (but then that's why the message will never get fixed ;)).
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I thought Sequoia reopened the fund after Valeant disaster. Fido says the fund is closed. So did they never reopen or did they reopen and then close again really fast? I tried searching the news but my Bing/Google-fu was not up to chops. ::) Edit: Morningstar page says SEQUX is open. Should I try to kick Fido about wrong info or is there more to the story? Anyone knows? Edit2: Maybe it is only open if you go directly to SEQUX and not if you go through brokerage? Edit3: Sequoia page has a link "open an account". I clicked up to the point where it asked for SSN. So I guess it is open for new investors directly? I still did not find any info if they restrict purchases through brokers.
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https://qz.com/1287701/bitcoin-golds-51-attack-is-every-cryptocurrencys-nightmare-scenario/
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I'm not a gourmand. I was in Maido in Peru http://www.maido.pe/ , which is No.8 according to this list: https://www.theworlds50best.com/list/1-50-winners It was OK, nice, but nothing special really. There's quite a few non-listed restaurants that I would prefer both food-wise and price-wise (see my New Orleans recommendations for example). Though clearly Peru prices are way better than most of the others on this list.
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If Amazon starts monetizing the data they have from their users for ad sales across the web like FB/GOOGL do, what would happen? Can we expect FB/GOOGL size ad business at some point? Will this hurt FB/GOOGL or mainly non-FB/GOOGL advertisers? Is there any reason AMZN is a bit lagging with the FB-like ad platform buildout?
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This is probably the best rent-vs-buy calculator: https://michaelbluejay.com/house/rentvsbuy.html It's still US specific though and likely not up to date for the latest tax changes. The number of variables and the unknowable future can make the decision hard. I somewhat agree with SD:
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OK, thanks for the answers. 8)
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Just for fun: this has gone nowhere for the last 4-5 years. How you guys think this is going to work out and why? What are you guys thinking about the opportunity cost? What are you going to do if it goes nowhere for another 4-5 years? Is the expectation that it goes nowhere for a while and then suddenly it goes 3x which still results in OKish annualized return? (2x won't cut it for a good return if you bought in 2014...) (Yeah, there were some trading opportunities, and clearly someone who bought last year in $30s is up a bit). Disclaimer: Yeah, you can ask similar questions for quite a few of my stocks... 8)
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Statistical aspects of portfolio diversification
Jurgis replied to Graham Osborn's topic in General Discussion
For Google and Facebook that has definitely been true. Microsoft is close to a 1000-bagger since IPO I think, before adjusting for inflation. There's definitely a bias for companies to go public later, which has taken some of the opportunity out of growth investing for the little guy. The issue with 100x baggers - as with any investment - is really how long you hold and when you sell. The survival bias on success stories like MSFT, GOOGL, FB is huge. And there's a lot of growth tech companies where you would have made great returns if you sold at the right moment. And if you held past that, you didn't. From what I understand, this might be a bit less of an issue in angel/private co investing. But even there the timing of exit may radically change the return. -
I did not find generic AI thread, so I'm gonna start one. 8) In particular, I wanted to post a link to this: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/the-world-e2-80-99s-dominant-crypto-mining-company-wants-to-own-ai/ar-AAxqyH5 (article connected to cryptocurrencies, NVDA, AI ASICs).