lathinker

Net profit of 4.5mm EUR in Q1 2021, the strongest Q1 in history if I am right, while the quarter was still impacted by Covid. Q2 will probably suffer from a rather weak tourist season as much of Europe is just slowly exiting lockdowns. Q3 might well see some improvement. Autohellas sterngthened their operations over the last few years with reasonable acquisitions/expansions in the International and Auto Trade segments. They made >1 EUR/share in 2019 and should be able to do more in the future (potentially even this year). The macro environment in Greece appears relatively strong given the government looks stable and pretty competent, the risk premia are down and even the banks (like Eurobank) are getting back on their feet. A stronger Grrek economy may help the Corporate Car Rental/Fleet Management business. Last week, Autohellad announced that they will participate in the recap of Aegean Air and so avoid dilution of their stake. Also, they have been buying their own shares around current prices of 7 EUR. Still pretty confident in with my sizeable position here.

I am not an expert in pharma or biotech, but found this post on Biontech quite interesting and worth reading. Also, probably worth weighing the case for Biontech vs. Moderna. https://valueandopportunity.com/2021/02/09/biontech-se-one-hit-wonder-or-game-changing-biotech-platform/

I looked at Grenke but decided to pass. It is true, they they had a great run over the last decade or so. They might have been the most succesful German financial company with both outstanding growth and profitability. Grenke is not a fraudulent company, but the Governance issues look real to me and even after the investigations and reports, doubts on certan aspects remai. I also doubt how useful their services really are to their customers and how they will be able to grow from here - growth requires more funding and in my view, their reputation clearly took a hit. Valueandopportunity had a good write-up detailling some problems. For me, Grenke is on the "too hard" pile https://valueandopportunity.com/2021/02/27/grenke-ag-update-all-clear-or-the-same-old-song-again/

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000156459021012981/tsla-8k_20210315.htm Not sure where they buy it, but the guys at Teska clearly seem to have some of the best dope out there. Point to remember: Successful people think about their title a lot. :P

So IsZo won at least the first round in the court: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210303005608/en/IsZo-Capital-Pleased-by-Court%E2%80%99s-Ruling-to-Void-Nam-Tai%E2%80%99s-170-Million-Private-Placement Nam Tai is appealing the decision: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/829365/000156459021010470/ntp-6k_20210303.htm In the meantime, IsZo is drumming up support for the meeting they expect to on April 26: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210304005710/en/IsZo-Capital-Provides-Important-Update-Regarding-Special-Meeting-of-Nam-Tai-Shareholders Like hillfronter, I expect that management/Kaisa will try some other tricks to try keeping control.

Hey writser, I appeciate your views on Syncora. As usual,your points are very reasonable. I am wondering what is going to happen if they do not manage to start construction on the land plot with the next - well - 6 days. Statements mention the risk of reposseission by the city but this may not happen automatically. I agree that you cannot comparable transactions are a tricky measure here. The option and the certificate are somewhat plays on the recovery of the Detroit waterfront area. No view on what is happening there. I saw aome articles on efforts to revive this, but hard to say from my armchair in Germany how this is going. So, yeah, option value The lawsuit is a risk, I am mildly optmistic for a favourable ruling based on the first ruling. Also, if that is really the last missing piece to finanlizing the liquidation, it might as well be settled. Also, it is noteworthy that the Crown investment will stop paying preferred dividends in May 2021 which might also be a reason to sell this asset. Their September statements assume for the liquidation to be finalized by June 2021. Mut well be just an assumption. So, in total, yeah, risk/return is probably okay though not stellar. Gonna be interesting to watch their next statements.

Is anyone still following Syncora? I restarted a position recently as a liquidation play. Good outline of the thesis is here: https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/SYNCORA_HOLDINGS/8071667419 Given that they are trading at around 28mm USD with 22mm USD in cash, downside appears limited. There are a few loose ends which are difficult for me to judge, including the value of the Detroit Real Estate and, in particular the discount certificate to buy real estate from the city. Not sure how easily this can be cashed in. Also, there is some uncertainty around the value for Swap Financial Group and the pending litigation. From what I read and from initial udgements, I am mildly optimistic on apositive outcome of the litigation. They will however have to get it off the table in order to wind the whole company up - so clarity on the litigation side seems like a major catalyst to watch. Given they handled the liquidation fairly competently so far, I trust they will also take the final steps in the next year or so. To me there is a scenario for a two-bagger while downside is limited and while the situation is fairly uncorrelated to the overall market.

Annual Results came out today. Net profit of 17.4mm EUR or 0.33 EUR/share. In my view this is not bad for a car rental company relying heavily on tourism in a pandemic year - given that Hertz went bankrupt and Sixt achieved a mere 2mm EUR net profit. They have also been repurchasing shares when the price was around 5 EUR. On the flipside, the market value in the Aegean Airlines stake suffered greatly during 2020. 2021 will depend on the tourism recovery in Europe which in turn willdepend on the speed of vaccinations. In my view, this is still an attracive and well-operated business and I am sticking with my position here. https://www.autohellas.gr/en/investors/financial-statements/

Dividend increase from 0.08 CAD to 0.10 CAD. https://orcaenergygroup.com/2021/02/24/orca-announces-increased-quarterly-dividend/ Yield around 7% p.a. at current prices

For idea generation, I like to look at what Rubicon Stockpicker Fund is doing. They have interesting ideas somewhere between contrarian and tech. https://www.langfrist.de/rubicon-stockpicker-fund/ If you are not a German speaker, you can click "Aktuelle Berichte" and open their reports in Englisch. TOP 5 positions make up >85% of the portfolio.

I own some Texhong with a cost basis of around 5 HKD. Few thoughts (probably not too surprising): They are in a tough and cyclical industry but have a decent track record of profitability. Over the last ten years, they were always profitable (even though their margins have varied), with ROEs >10% in 7 out of 10 years and five out of the last six, assuming 2020 will be < 10. During that time, they have grown revenues 4x. The business was severely impacted by Covid since their revenue declined in H1 and margins collapsed (operating leverage). I am confident they will come back stronger than before since they have more scale following the expansion over the last few years. While tariffs / trade issues, are a concern, they have diversified a lot geographically with activities in Vietnam, Turkey and Latam and widened their product range. To a large extent, this is a bet on the founder/CEO, Hong Tianzhou. He navigated the firm skillfully in a volatile and difficult industry with a focus on efficiency / cost advantages and has found clever ways to expand and grow. He is still the majority shareholder and - in my view demonstrated strong skills in terms as both an operator and capital allocator. I like the fact that his salary is less than the dividend he is paid - the place seems to be run for shareholders in my view. https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Texhong_Textile/6872850370 is a decent read for the bull case.

Looks like the entire management board bought some shares yesterday. Notably, Hasso Plattner, billionaire co-founder and chairman invested some 250mm EUR worth of shares. https://www.sap.com/investors/en/governance/managers-transactions.html No position here, but will take a closer look.

Bought some BMW prefs on Monday @48.50 EUR

http://scafg.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/syncora-holdings-ltd-announces-increased-cash-purchase-price As suggested by Capitalist World, the price increase is here. The buyer is still Star Insurance / Golden Tree, yet they lifted the price due to a competitive bid on which they unfortunately give no details. -> Cash price increased by 36.5mm USD to 429 mm USD. -> Buyer assumes obligations unter Pass Through Twin Reef Preferred Securities (37mm USD per 30/06 if I get this correctly) -> Range of other assets estimated 45-60mm USD Using 45mm USD, I get to a total value of 5.45 USD / share. Also, they are planning for a cash distribution shortly after receiptof the proceeds. Interestingly, the sales price increase (pre tax) from today's announcement is about 0.85 USD per share, while the stock is only up 0.35 USD. Might be that quite some market participants had expected the move. Chapeau to Capitalist World for making another good call on this one.

Syncora Holdings today announced the planned sale of their main asset, the Guarantee Insurance business (SGI), for 392.5 mm USD in cash. http://scafg.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/syncora-holdings-ltd-announces-agreement-sell-syncora-guarantee The announcement follows the expolaration of strategic alternatives as announced in May. The price came as a clear disappointment to the market and the stock is down about 13% today to about 4.60$ as of this writing. If the deal goes through, Syncora will hold: 392.5mm USD Cash from SGI 32mm USD other Cash certain assets related to Pike Point LLC (100% owned; book value of 8.5mm USD per Dec 2018) 80% of Swap Financial Group (100% book value of 13mm USD; 10.5mm USD for 80% per Dec 2018) They also have pref shares outstanding with a current liquidity prefence of 37mm USD. In total, that gives an expected distribution, assuming book value for Pike Point and Swap Financial of 4.66 USD/share Further items to adjust from here + Syncora holds 300mm USD in NOL + they hold a property in Detroit through Pike Point - Cost / Cash Burn to run and wind down the company The agreement states explicitly that Syncora may walk away if they find a better deal by 13 September and pay 15.7mm USD. It is nothing I would expect given they just ran a bidding process but given the price is on the low side of expectations (and adjusted book value is 7.86 USD/share), it is not zero either. Syncora has yet to announce the precise further procedure in terms of distribution. Still holding my position here.