ccplz

This post has almost nothing to do with VIPS

Anyone have a view on VIPS now that it is trading significantly below where JD / Tencent went in?

How would you value a business like SoFI?

Another gem by giofranchi

Signet is not a jewelry company.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-30/softbank-invests-300-million-into-dog-walking-startup-wag What a legend

What's wrong with having subsidiaries

Why is Overwatch awkward to watch?

How much cash are they offering for the assets? Has the amount been confirmed?

Anyone been following the spinoff story?

5% growth rate? how the fuck do you assume a terminal growth rate that's higher than terminal GDP growth rate?

Interesting. Do you look at Asia a lot Writser?

This makes this uninvestable at any price.

ASNA equity is a 0. Why? Top-line is deteriorating due to full penetration of portfolio of tired brands, combined Nov / Dec comps declined 4.4% (however they had to increase promotions to drive comps) with pre-Christmas comps (i.e. first three weeks of Dec) down 10-17% Profitability is now concentrated in one brand (maurices, ~62% of profitability) which has reached penetration and as the brand moves online, will face significant competition from ecommerce players Justice, historically the Company’s second PNL generator, has collapsed under increased competition and a turnaround is unlikely given pricing pressure and erosion of store-base competitive advantage All of ASNA’s other brands are fully penetrated and contribute limited profitability Significant actual and implied leverage creates a very levered entity that drives significant decremental margins on small downward changes in sales (and vice-versa) Company put on significant leverage for its last acquisition and currently sits on $2B leverage on $580M of EBITDA (i.e. 3x+) which is a lot for a brick-and-mortar retailer, most of the public comps don’t even have debt (with far better top-line trends) In addition, ASNA has 4 concepts across 750+ stores which creates structural issues in world increasingly shifting to e-commerce Assumed lease payments of this $750M capitalized at 10x imply leverage of 5.5x+ This is an overleveraged retailer with tired brands in structural decline that could be facing negative cash flow in 2-3 years - just screams structural short. Regarding the leverage, 1.5 billion is not due until 2022. That is a ways off before they even have to really worry about the balloon payment. They are currently working in revamping the company and cutting the expenses. The entire retail sector is in the toilet and driving down sales as companies struggling to survive are cutting prices to get people in the store. Those that can weather the storm will pick up a lot of new business as the weaker ones go out of business. The term loan has been prepaid in that another payment is not due until May 2018 (I believe). This gives them time to implement "Change for Growth". They have quite a few levers that can be pulled to stay afloat until better times come. Despite what others would have people think, the entire country is not going to shift to only ecommerce. Am I saying it's a buy right now? No, for one the price is higher then I want to pay relative to valuation. They have some goodwill write offs coming up. can also think of a couple other things that need to be done. Hopefully on the earnings release a better picture will be painted on their position for the rest of the year. I think it's very premature to call the equity a 0 at this point in time. Ok. What levers? The equity is a 0.

ASNA equity is a 0. Why? Top-line is deteriorating due to full penetration of portfolio of tired brands, combined Nov / Dec comps declined 4.4% (however they had to increase promotions to drive comps) with pre-Christmas comps (i.e. first three weeks of Dec) down 10-17% Profitability is now concentrated in one brand (maurices, ~62% of profitability) which has reached penetration and as the brand moves online, will face significant competition from ecommerce players Justice, historically the Company’s second PNL generator, has collapsed under increased competition and a turnaround is unlikely given pricing pressure and erosion of store-base competitive advantage All of ASNA’s other brands are fully penetrated and contribute limited profitability Significant actual and implied leverage creates a very levered entity that drives significant decremental margins on small downward changes in sales (and vice-versa) Company put on significant leverage for its last acquisition and currently sits on $2B leverage on $580M of EBITDA (i.e. 3x+) which is a lot for a brick-and-mortar retailer, most of the public comps don’t even have debt (with far better top-line trends) In addition, ASNA has 4 concepts across 750+ stores which creates structural issues in world increasingly shifting to e-commerce Assumed lease payments of this $750M capitalized at 10x imply leverage of 5.5x+ This is an overleveraged retailer with tired brands in structural decline that could be facing negative cash flow in 2-3 years - just screams structural short.