kab60

The presentation I shared is a conference call with management and Q&A. There are lots of interesting nuggets which arent in the presentation. Really suggest listening from 30-40 min mark (outlook, strategy) if interested in the biz. Guy on Twitter shared it, since it wasn't publisted on their IR site (which is obviously something they need to improve). As you allude to, the runway is extremely long. They have 25 pct share in their most mature markets, they are the low cost provider, and they share the economics of their biz with their customers - as well as foregoing shorterm margin improvements to improve value proposition for customers. If these guys execute, I could see this biz grow 10x. Big risk is execution but also deep pocketed competitors foregoing profits for growth. That hmight make it harder to buy right/source the right cars cheaply, which is basically what the business comes down to.

There is a management presentation here which I'd suggest to go through. I don't think this should be a 250m company. Management is very high quality. https://wetransfer.com/downloads/fbe55e495fe4262f10e49c4b0543553520210616100549/af402d

New strategy announced yesterday. Increases growth ambitions agressively. Wants to double revenue to 2b and improve margins towards 2024. Track record is stellar, management is credible and has skin in the game. I, and others, had hoped for a more agressive expansion before, but now it is definately here. I don't do relative valuations, but the discrepancy between this and Cazoo is mindbobbling and unlike anything I think I have ever seen. Market hasn't really reacted despite what I would call very bullish news, but I think it'll catch up. Made it a 10 pct position.

No, not really. It has been on a pretty good heater since last summer, so can't say I'm surprised that it is cooling off a bit. I like the story long term, so I'm just holding, but at these levels I prefer Motorpoint PLC in the UK. Motorpoint actually launched a strategy today with some of the same growth ambitions as ABG although it's a different model (Motorpoint wants to double revenue midterm and increase margins). I bought more Motorpoint today and made it a 10 pct. position, since market seems indifferent to their new strategy despite it's a massive acceleration of growth. And this for a business with prodigious ROIC and cash conversion.

Recently dropped their prelim results for fiscal 2021. Hardly a surprise that results were strong and ahead of consensus, but a couple of minor and interesting strategic points. Following their win of a "covid19" contract with NHS in the UK last year, they've been expanding into life sciences. They just bought Wippet Ltd, which plans to launch a b2b marketplace in the UK in september. No idea what it'll amount to, but I like how they're making these opportunistic bets. They also announched an extension of their contract with Asos in Europe. Contract is extended 3 years, and the scope is widened taking the numbers of full-time employees working on the contract from 350 to 700 people working at Clippers' site in Poznan, Poland. Outlook: The Board remains confident in Clipper's prospects for the new financial year and over the medium term and expects that the current momentum from new and existing contract wins will continue given the acceleration in the structural shift to online: ... Underpinning the Group's ambition to become a global leader in end to end ecommerce and retail, the Company continues to explore potential M&A opportunities in both mainland Europe and North America. Results: The Group has continued to perform strongly throughout FY21 and full year EBIT (IAS17 basis) is expected to be in line with expectations of £31.6m, an underlying increase of 53% on the £20.6m achieved in FY20 (excluding the negative goodwill which arose in FY20). We expect revenue for FY21 of £698m, 39% ahead of the prior year driven by a combination of organic growth and new contract wins. https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/clipper/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=834&newsid=1481514 Still HODLing

Thanks for the additional info, RVP. Their website is strange. I really wanna learn more about their FF business, but when you go to their services & facilities' page, there's just six pictures of trucks and forklifts. Often, when you go to a FF website, you're bombarded with phone numbers to call to get a quote. It seems the FF market is extremely fragmented in Singapore, which could be an interesting opportunity. But it doesn't seem like these guys are focused on consolidating things. Took a look at the prospectus and they seem pretty clear in what they wanna buy: We have engaged a Business Advisory Consultant to identify and select the Potential TargetCompanies based on a set of selection criteria. Please refer to the section headed “Business— Business strategies — Expand and enhance our value added transport services andoperational scale through the strategic acquisition of a logistics company which provideswarehousing services and the expansion of our open-yard storage services — A. StrategicAcquisition — (b). Benefits of a warehouse — IV. Identification and selection of PotentialTarget Companies” for details of our selection criteria.As at the Latest Practicable Date, we had not reached a decision on any Potential TargetCompany to acquire or committed to the acquisition of any Potential Target Companies, norentered into any formal negotiation or signed any definitive and finalised understanding,commitment or agreement with any Potential Target Companies or any of their respectivevendor(s). We intend to approach these Potential Target Companies following the Listing,during the first half of 2021, and once the Business Advisory Consultant has identified andshortlisted suitable target companies. We plan to complete the Strategic Acquisition by theend of 2021. In the event that the negotiations with the Potential Target Company do notmaterialize, the Business Advisory Consultant will continue to identify and shortlistsuitable target companies for our further selection until we have reached a final decisionon the Potential Target Company to acquire. Our Directors confirm that we will finance theremaining balance of the Strategic Acquisition with our own internal resources

Yeah, too bad these suckers didn't load up to buyback shares when they were (really) cheap. If they'd levered up they could've kept the share prices down by keeping all the debt sissies fearing >4xnet debt/ebitda at bay ?

I prefer MO and took a large bite at 36,5 last year after having sold out in March, when covid hit and it held up better than most of the rest of my portfolio. Now, due to valuation, I prefer BATS, but I'm sticking with MO and has just doubled my expose. I really like MO, because I think the US market is great. Cigarettes aren't very expensive, the political ability to change stuff is close to non-existant, and even if politicians decides they wanna change things it'll probably be held up in litigation for years. With a highly cashflowing and short duration asset that's pretty great although it might suck for the general health. Also, while BATS and PM always emphasize revenue growth, it's usually done in current currency terms, whereas in $ terms their revenue is usually less impressive. With higher inflation in some of their markets, currencies will devalue. I'm sure PM is a fine pick as well, but when the terminal value is a bit unclear (although I'd argue clearer than probably most businesses) I like buying below 10xFCF. I also like how both MO and BATS might be setup for share buybacks in not too long. It's incredible how no one has gone activist and suggested these companies lever up to 5xebitda and tender for their shares, but hopefully that's what Kenneth Dart is doing behind the scenes in BATS.

As a smaller investor it should be possible to find better bargains than in large cap space. But I think some of these hated plays, which ESG investors shy away from, look stupidly valued. And despite generally giving little thought to volatility, their low beta makes BATs and Altria good in downturns, where better bargains are to be had in small caps and it makes sense to rotate. I know these things are hated, but I would argue they are still some of the best businesses in the world and less than half the market mulitple I have some 20 pct in smokes and will probably buy more when I free up some cash.

It's probably the ESG report in their AR which has cost them a fortune... Looks like an interesting Company, I love freight forwarders. Any idea what they wanna acquire since they have earmarked most of IPO proceeds for that? Not sure if it's cheap enough, considering decent to good companies with fat payouts and longer track records can be found around net net levels in HK, but it does seem like an above average business. ROE looks good but probably boosted by depreciated warehouses or do they get those appraised and marked to market?

Canatal is up 1/3 in the last month or so, but doesn't explain all the action. So yeah, no idea, but I'll take it.

I really like how flexible they are, planting small seeds, taking calculated risks, decentralized ops. But, they could improve capital allocation. Doubt they find better acquisitions than their own shares.

Greenwood if IIRC, smelled like capitulation to me... Lots of 'value' guys seemed to look for 'excuses' to get on the momo train after underperforming for long... At what seems llke the worst time

Q1 results out, looking good. 1/3 of new automotive orders is EV/BEV. Earnings more than doubled. Market share gains in AG and Industrials and continued growth in content per vehicle in auto. Thought they'd consume cash, but they're still gushing it out.HODL During the firstquarter of 2021(“Q12021”), the Company experienced strong sales growth, up15% vs Q1 2020, and outstandingnormalized net earnings growth, up 2.3 timesin comparison tolast year;•Strong normalized operating earnings growth in both segments;•Mobility segment normalized operating earnings up nearly 2.5timesfor Q1 2021 and Industrial segment normalized operating earningsup nearly 1.5times;•Free cash flow1was $166.2million for Q12021compared to $147.1 million for the first quarter of 2020(“Q1 2020”); https://www.linamar.com/sites/default/files/press/Q1 2021 Press Release.pdf

Monster Q1, seems like I sold too early. Revenue up 35 pct. Looks like even better value, but I am already more than fully invested.