RadMan24

BYD, Tencent, Alibaba, StoneCo, and of course, GameStop.

Capital allocation has been good. Debt management has been excellent, its a conservative business. Will help a lot if/when rates rise to steer of inflation. MacDon should do well, farmers might have a cash hoard this year if things play out well.

Lots of fear in these China tech names. Tencent, Alibaba, etc. all are significantly undervalued. If you don't want to own Alibaba itself, buy an ETF/Index, most have Tencent/Alibaba at a combined weighting near 20-30%. If you have a 10+ year time horizon, this is a no brainer.

The answer is SRG can be today's HHC 10 years from now. I'm not saying one has to buy SRG, or that the risk/reward is favorable, in my situation, its just a hold, though I did add when it was in the low dollars, I mostly bought SRG prior to covid, but have no real sense or need to sell. Obviously, got lucky that BRK was behind the loan, as that's likely a one in a thousand event. Those buying today could do well, but they would need extreme patience for it to work. Plus, I'm willing to wait, especially if I get to see Pupil eat cow dung. This is a "show me" story, and that will take years. Anyone buying today hoping to hit it big in 3 years will be sorely disappointed, imo.

ESG is apart of the "system". So, it'll be the same people who were disproportionally impacted by the covid-19 crisis. It's like being in the matrix, eventually a new program will replace it, but still remains apart of the "system". You had ESG funds and activists (majority action) pounding their chest to vote off Ken Frazier, one of the most prominent black corporate leaders, due to "climate change." Not only that, but these ESG folks rather the US get its oil from the Middle East, Iran, Venezuela, Russia, rather than from Canada, our friendly as can be neighbor. The death of pipelines from Canada is about as stupid, but not quite as stupid, as using corn as fuel. But I digress...

That's quite impressive.

Don’t forget* he has an opinion on everything and it’s very important that everyone hears about it. *edit (it’s late)

He's not doing any media event till the annual meeting. I presume he's saving any such thoughts for whatever shareholders want to ask him. Besides, we got a hunk of juice from his sidekick Charlie the other day, more than enough to fill the air till May!

Ya'll see this yesterday? https://www.wsj.com/articles/charlie-munger-renews-robinhood-criticism-likens-app-to-racetrack-betting-11614284939?mod=searchresults_pos3&page=1 “I hate this luring of people into engaging in speculative orgies,” Mr. Munger told The Wall Street Journal from his Los Angeles home. Robinhood “may call it investing, but that’s all bullshit.” He added, “It’s really just wild speculation, like casino gambling or racetrack betting. There’s a long history of destructive capitalism, these trading orgies whooped up by the people who profit from them.”

These questions have become more urgent as price is almost at 90, i.e. 15x P/E assuming EPS= $6 through the cycle. I've made a 3x on this and psychologically I have an itch to sell. But I'll make an attempt at valuation here and am looking for feedback and other people's thoughts. Q: Is MU a long term compounder with cyclicality , or will its earnings say at the $6 level and just cycle around his over time? I am trying to answer this below; come up with a valuation with underlying assumptions. Assumptions: 1. The oligopoly will succeed in managing supply to match demand over the long term and get a good ROE. 2. They cannot match demand over the short term. Demand moves in a month, but supply takes years to build. So mismatches will occur and cause cycles. 3. The oligopoly will not be broken by new entrants. Assume that the company gets 20% ROE, and book value has been growing almost 20%. This leads to $6 over an average equity of $30 over the past 3 years, but implies that current earning potential is $36*0.2 = $7. Then the P/E multiple is reduced to 13x. If this EPS is growing with book value (at a rate much faster than GDP), then this definitely deserves a higher than 13x multiple. Of course we have to assume that the increase in book is not creating oversupply which destroys the returns. So one question is, at what rate will book value increase to match long term demand growth? demand growth is 10-15% bit growth, but not sure how that translates to Capex . Thoughts? growth views? price targets ? disagreement with the assumptions? I've also held Micron but its been under a year so have no desire to sell. SK has embarked on some serious equipment expenditures and will try and iron out those new tech production kinks before Micron bites the bullet. A lot of this is new found territory. With everything needing more and more memory, particularly from the automotive sector, and with modest valuations on a 'mid-cycle' EPS (which doesn't assume growth in midcycle EPS going forward), it's a tough case to make a sell (confirmation bias notwithstanding). At the end of the day, Micron is in a fantastic position with a lot of new industry moving in. This has the possibility of extending the cycle longer than many expect. I am not though expecting AMD or Nvidia type returns.

It's just the old Phil Fisher argument. If Costco earns $10 EPS today, and it earns $20 EPS in 10 years, using the same 34x multiple, you have a $680 stock, a double. But if that multiple drops to its "pre-covid average" of around 27, you have a $540 stock. A 60% return over 10 years. In general, that's probably what I would expect given how low interest rates are today. In 10 years time, there is a high chance of higher interest rates, stronger economy, etc. but how that impacts the multiple is anyone's guess. It would just seem that there's a lot of potential for a lower multiple in the future, as opposed to the same or higher one. This will inherently offset the moat and earnings growth which will have some tailwinds. In 20 or 30 years time, there's the possibility something else that comes along that overtakes Costco, or the culture inside Costco starts to deteriorate. As long as you have modest return expectations, you probably won't be disappointed with this investment idea. Edit: cleaned up some text

Without being captain obvious, Costco has a lot of room to grow and build its moat, especially overseas. But if the multiple contracts from here, even if 10 years out, whatever EPS growth will likely be offset. Some might argue at this price level, you got a Coca-Cola type situation.

Yea, I don't see how any lawsuit is successful against him. 1.) He's a Legend. and 2.) This whole episode is just entertaining to watch unfold.

Depends. What do you know about Texas infrastructure? Aren't Texan homes made to cool down at night to evade the high heat of the summer? Same with roads? Sure natural gas pipes and other critical parts can address potential freezing problems in the future, but the sparse landscape of Texas makes brining outside electricity an hassle. From the outside, this seems like a perfect storm. I'm sure lots will be learned for such extreme events in the future.

Flying J has been a great investment. I think Buffett wanted to buy PSX, but got rebuffed, was a good investment. XOM was more of a cash holding idea, according to Munger, and it ended up not working due to the drop in oil.