keerthiprasad

Rough adjustment of ebitda for cost reductions + 18 stores (not consistently open) + optimism . I think 15 can still happen. Q1 was a bit light on sales, but we will see. Maybe the company expected better sales too..inventories are high.

Agreed... It only works if they can pull off online marketing. I'm giving it a couple quarters to decide.

My rough numbers: 25M net cash this year 100M revenue 15-20M cash flow No debt Hoping for a nice re-rating after CCAA exited. Not many online retailers trading at these valuations.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/06/11/2246023/0/en/DAVIDsTEA-Creditors-Approve-CCAA-Plan-of-Arrangement.html

The 18m is definitely lease related. Inventories are up yoy despite store closures and accounts payable are down significantly (vendors up front payment during this process). We can expect more normal payment terms after resolution of the ccaa. They also have 7M in deposits with vendors. This will be unwound as well.

Great deal for DTEA or much lower than I expected. Looks like they have accumulated a bunch of prepaid inventory during this process and that should convert nicely to more cash on the balance sheet.

That's the assumption - but I'm not sure that's the case. The new AER fleet is only slightly older and now comprises of a higher mix of narrowbodies - which are a lot more liquid and faces less uncertainties than the widebody market. They also wrote down the fleet substantially - GECAS assets stood at $36 bn at end of 2020, now remarked at $34 bn and being bought for $30 bn at AER's current price. On a leveraged business like lessors, these impairments can lead to huge discounts on BV. Crucially, Gus mentioned that these assets were all marked at cost and the impairments were taken on cost. Yes I think Gus has proven himself and deserves benefit of doubt in this case! I was just sharing some general concerns. I'm not totally sold but am waiting it out.

OK deal at best for AER, def not ILFC #2. Comparing BV is a good approach. The quality of the GECAS fleet is likely lower than AER's fleet...leads to some future uncertainty regarding BV.

Thanks. I think it may be higher quality than most of the typical japanese value traps. However, its not rare to find solid businesses trading below book in Japan. I guess I was trying to figure out why this one has caught on all of a sudden. Jeremy is a really smart guy who I respect. He's also fluent in Japanese, so I trust him more than myself on this haha.

Why is Shinoken any different than all the other Japanese value traps?

AER BWMX BGCP ORRCF SQBG TZOO

Received both parts of the vaccine a couple weeks ago. Indiana has a pretty efficient process luckily.

I've been holding this one for a bit now. Its like tupperware...the moat is simply the network of direct sales associates. In other words, only good until it burns out. All MLM's burn out. Right now visibility is their biggest issue, as their IR is kind of weak. Hoping it improves soon. They plan to list in Mexico this year, hopefully helps with price discovery.

ccrc

I recently exited my position in this company around $2 and have been adding on the way back down. Definitely nice to see some increased liquidity. Definitely a few levers to pull. Refinancing the debt should be #1. Divesting the legacy businesses would be nice, but doubtful it can happen at a reasonable valuation. I can confirm that their RAC audit business is no longer stopped by COVID. thanks for sharing your thoughts.