ander

Many investors seem to have given up on LBTYK. I'm still a stockholder. Not happy with my IRR so far, but am looking forward to a re-rating. A summary of thesis (not dissimilar to Redburn notes) on VIC last year: Value Investors Club / LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC (LBTYK)

I found your comment on "highways/pipeline equivalent are actually restricted in supply and cannot be laid down more (unlike fiber/highways/pipelines)" very interesting. I haven't researched the wireless spectrum allocation for about a decade on so was refreshing on where things stood. Here are some articles that stood out: U.S. Frequency Allocation Chart (doc.gov) an allocation chart from 2003 The End of Spectrum Scarcity - IEEE Spectrum A historical look in 2004 looking forward - good summary about expanding capacity in the same spectrum Microsoft Word - Position031410MCjb.doc (fcc.gov) A position paper from 2010 looking at the issue My key question to those who are much more informed than me on the topic: 1) the existing spectrum that's being allocated how likely is it to create scarcity? (is there leased spectrum that can be re-allocated, spectrum re-sold, technology enhancements).

Interesting so he was able to go with a competitor that gave him internet only?

"A colleague was telling me yesterday Comcast wouldn't let him get only internet in his area, and that they forced him to buy a cable package." Wow! I've never heard of that. I've got to imagine antitrust will come into play if they keep doing that. What area of the country is your colleague in?

Definitely fear of cord cutting (most of their customers were linear) and then an inability to capture enough streaming share.

vince am curious how are you estimating the 8+ billion of FCF. I know they guided for 60% FCF conversion. But with some of their entities the FCF assumes adjustments for vendor financing, etc. Curious if you had done anything more specific. Agree if it's true 10x FCF, it's a great risk / reward.

There's preferred stock which is an additional 165 mil shares or so.

Has anyone looked into, if transaction closes on May 14th, when does the common get tendered in the U.S. -- or the mechanics / timing?

Mis-typed. Yes the Debentureholders (not the MTNs). I'm assuming they can only adjourn and seek votes, if enough shareholders have voted yes to the 3rd question re: adjournment proposal. Is that your reading as well? If you vote "no" to that, presumable you are willing to walk from the deal (or I-Squared has to come up with a higher number). I thought the converts meeting was delayed and approval was received for the MTNs. Delaying the converts meeting may have always been the plan. It certainly scared some holders out (perhaps rightfully so) like divestor.com and widened the spread just as proxies were arriving in the mail. There was also, the possibility once the MTN and convert approvals were received, that would be the ideal time for institutional holders to ask for a bump with less risk. We must also assume, they will delay the April 7 meetings if they don’t have enough votes by then as well and if necessary restrike the record date. Existing holders might be more incentivized to vote yes given the big spread vs those who sold and moved on.

Nelg - apologies I just noticed this message. In my initial model, I actually assumed no re-contracting on any of the assets (highly conservative!) with the exception of Curtis Palmer. For Curtis Palmer I had assumed 40% of current EBITDA. Based on the projections that have been outlined in the Proxy (I would take a look at those), there seems to be even additional upside than what I had modeled (the proxy breaks it down by category - and knowing the expiries of the PPA's you can also infer which plants they think will be renewed). Interesting the Debentureholders meeting is now adjourned for April 7th as well. Looks like the probability of the deal getting voted down at this price level is increasing.

Anyone familiar with the process of how long it takes to get the $10 per share back (i.e., the trust value) after you put in for a redemption?

Any views on results? https://investors.atlanticpower.com/2021-03-04-Atlantic-Power-Corporation-Releases-Fourth-Quarter-and-Year-End-2020-Results I noted they said Calstock exploring 5 year renewal option - I believe they had said longer-term, but did not specify 5 years.

So how are you interpreting it? If there is a lower likelihood of a higher offer -- then the stock could sell off, but currently it's trading at a ~16%+ annualized spread, which would be on the higher end of a spread. If there is a higher likelihood of a higher offer -- then the stock price should trend higher. The other possibility would be the view that investors likely to vote down the deal and there is no higher offer. Thoughts?

Spread is widening to the $3.03 re: common last couple of days (i.e., stock price coming in). Anyone see any news?

Exactly what I was looking at. That was comical. And I would guess I Squared being savvy wanted to hold the price there so said they wanted to retrade lower — the proxy then try’s to indicate mgmt “heroically” held firm at the $3.03. (My paraphrased interpretation).