supertutti

Is this one you are buying more of in the short term? You have been on this from the very start, great job! What is your outlook in the near and long term for this?

Well done!

Don't know much about this company but know a decent amount about Newark real estate. Broad street is very interesting area. Prudential has it's HQ there, and recently built a second tower there, and a whole foods open on the street. But there have been many efforts to develop housing and office there, and they have all struggled. While they have built nice places to work or live, Newark still has a stigma, and honestly, rightfully so. It's not the best place to walk during the day, and certainly not at night. Most of the nicer office space for Newark is very close to Penn Station, about 3-4 blocks away from Broad Street. There has been a resurgence in renovating and new construction in Newark, but I still don't see many companies lining up to move their HQ there. So in summary, the building being vacant is a red flag and not something I'd see as being filled quickly. There is a lot of available office space in Newark.

Agreed, big spike in non-accrual investments has me a bit worried. Any word on what sector those were from, and a breakdown of investments by sector currently? The only thing I would slightly disagree with is that an alarmingly large percent of their loans are now non-accrual, I think something like 9%. Previously, it was something like 1%? Additionally, NAV went down just a bit more than I would have liked. It is $9.82/share. Fortunately, I've got about a $3 margin of safety... Other than that, I think it was a good quarter. Assuming things don't get substantially worse, I think there is a good chance the dividend is maintained.

True, I wonder why he released this email. CYA. Just covering his own arse.

Sorry, poorly worded. I don't mean I don't trust them to run the business, I just don't trust them to maximize shareholder value and really trigger growth going forward. They dug themselves out of quite a hole, totally agree. But looking to the future, I haven't seen much that makes me think they can grow other than through cost cutting and some further divestures.

CEO says no the split, will meet with Icahn to make their point. http://www.wsj.com/articles/aig-ceo-rebuffs-idea-of-breaking-up-company-1446559050 At this point, seems like they want to continue to just keep doing the same things, and somehow just cutting costs will improve their struggling business. While it trades under "book value", still not enough for me to get into this yet. Just don't trust management.

Which way of interesting are you predicting? I think it could go either way. A plant they can't fix can't make money for them to pay back their debt.

This is getting downright crazy! Can't believe I sold this stock on 8/10 for 9.50. They will be releasing a monthly update tomorrow? I think without a significant increase in production, if they mention anything about more issues with the plant, this goes down further. They are hedged for a couple more months but without an increase in production they do not have the cash to continue without raising more funds.

My issue isn't as much with the market and long term pricing as it is with the cash position and the failure to continually fall short of expectations when it comes to the new plant. I understand falling short 1-2 quarters, but we are now at 6 or so of saying they will ramp up and fall short. Until they prove they are capable of getting the plant working as planned, I just can't commit to these guys. I was very lucky to buy at 7.50 and sell out at the last spoke at 9.50, but now even at 4ish I'm hesitant to get back in because nothing fundamentally has changed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-22/putting-a-price-on-volkswagen-s-diesel-emission-fraud-liability Here is Bloomberg's guess at overall liability. $7b or so.

Again, the peanut butter lead to direct deaths. Much easier to argue than pollution from 11 million cars lead to deaths as compared to all the other emissions around the world. The gov't isn't usually in the business of making examples. They will get their money, and both sides will want to end this battle and settle as quickly as possible. If VW offers the gov't $10b tomorrow, is it worth the gov't to potentially pursue for an additional few billion with all the time and costs and risks of court involved?

While class action lawsuits are a real possibility, the actual loss here isn't that great to the consumer. It is not like GMs ignition problem where actual lives were lost. While future profits and litigation costs will probably offset for 2 years or so, long term the company should continue to grow and survive. This reminds me of Toyota's stuck pedal problem, when more than anything they had to spend to regain customers trust. VW will have to do the same, but their premium brands will continue to do well and help the overall image of the company. I think this is oversold, but with fresh news coming out I wouldn't jump in just yet.

The freefall continues. At this point, I have no idea how to even value the company. Anyone have any ideas? Or is it just trying to catch a falling knife now? I have also not seen any news or purchases/sales, or any word from Pabrai or the company. To me, the silence is deafening.

Continuing its steady decline and setting new lows. I think every day zinc prices stay at these levels, the future prospects of the company decline as well. They are burning through cash with no end in site for getting this plant working properly. I'm continuing to sit on the sideline until there is some indication they have gotten this figured out.