Jump to content

marazul

Member
  • Posts

    96
  • Joined

  • Last visited

marazul's Achievements

Newbie

Newbie (1/14)

0

Reputation

  1. It is highly likely Buffett sold. A few months ago he said he doesn´t like to trim positions, once he sells he likes to sell everything. In late 2019 he actually trimmed WFC, so expected he wanted to get completely out of it. And it was not jsut to stay below 10% ownership, he sold more than that. I find it odd that he sold at 2x current prices, and stopped selling for a while. Then unloaded the shares at 0.5x the price he sold a few months ago. He didn´t keep selling at higher prices and once it fell didn´t wait for slighly higher prices. Some possible explanations: -He didn´t like the approach taken by new management. -Dind´t want to be the largest shareholder of a troubled bank given reputation and regulatory risk -He wants to focus his banking investment in Bank of America -Problems are bigger than initially expected and the future is grim for the bank. -His assumption that it was the best franchise in banking was misplaced. -Franchise has been impaired due to all the problems in the last few years It is not a good sign given how close Buffett has been to the bank. He has been invested for decades. Once mentioned during the worst days of the crisis, that he would put 100% of his NW in Wells. We will soon know more but if he sold, we should probably pay attention.
  2. do you guys know if he keeps buying, are additional filings required? Without knowing much about the regulation I would have thought yes, but have not seen a filing since the original one 2 days ago.
  3. do you guys know if he keeps buying, are additional filings required? Without knowing much about the regulation I would have thought yes, but have not seen a filing since the original one 2 days ago.
  4. Thank you for the information. In a case like this, how does the recovery work. I guess they already distributed the cash to the shareholders at the time of the acquisition. Not sure how it works, my guess is this will be pretty difficult to recover but I have no experience in the field.
  5. Apple is now a huge position as we all know. I don’t see how Berkshire can liquidate Apple as it would add another large amount to the cash pile and take it above $200bn. I was thinking, is handing out the Apple shares to brk shareholders a possibility. This would be a return of capital in form of Apple shares. Makes sense to me and would reduce the pressure on brk. I know brk has said that there is value in keeping it all together. ut not sure if an outsized position like apple can be the exception. Just a crazy idea, who knows.
  6. Cash is fastly approaching the $150bn mark which Buffett has referred in the past as "unjustifiable". If there are no major investments in the next 2 years, Berkshire will just have too much cash. Is there a way for Berkshire to return capital in a tax efficient way for investors? If it is a regular dividend, most investors would get 70 cents on the dollar. Is there a solution for this problem? obviously, besides repurchases. In the past, Buffett has been creative in deferring taxes (e.g. PG-Duracell transaction). I see it unlikely he would just pay the dividend and return 70 cents on the dollar to investors.
  7. Yes, +$50bn is a reasonable estimate. It is one of the best assets in the Berkshire umbrella. Geico is larger than Progressive with 13% share of the US auto insurance market compared to 10%.
  8. Think what happened was: Malone/Charter got offers. None of them were enough to win support. What Malone would have wanted was for Charter to try to get Verizon to offer something a bit higher. In order to get this, he needed support from the board and from management. If he didn´t get support from management but still went through, then that would break the relationship. Probably management was not interested in engaging and "blocked" this process, so Malone figured he was not going to get into a fight with Management. Maybe it was not worth it...
  9. I think this overestimates the amount of excess liquidity or net cash Berkshire holds. Important to understand that float is also a type of leverage. So Berkshire has (rough numbers) $120bn of float and $100bn of cash. So +100% of the equity is in wholly owned businesses and public equities. Also, Buffett has mentioned he planes to keep $20bn in cash at all times.
  10. Is there a 25% of daily volume limit on buybacks? Sorry for my ignorance.
  11. If you don´t have any budget constraints would reccomend the new Marriott by the Centurylink stadium.
  12. numbers look very good, why is the stock down afterhours?
  13. Difficult to see float growing $8bn per year going forward...
  14. The issue here is that Aercap, and all large lessors, have huge backlogs. These deliveries can´t be paid with just cash flow generation, they need to tap the debt markets. Risk here is that each year you need to issue new debt to finance these deliveries, and the market is not always open. Aercap has availability on a large credit line, huge cash flow generation and proven ability to sell planes...but this might not be enough in a financial crisis....Buffett won´t take this economic and reputational risk at probably any price but small investors (like me) might be willing to do it if the expected return is there. I think an investment in Aercap at current prices is a decent bet, but I know this will trade like crap (and probably deservedly so) in a downturn.
  15. Great listening to Dimon. Got the sense he feels that bbacks at these prices do ‘t offer great IRRs, which is difficult to understand.
×
×
  • Create New...