SOTP valuation is ok, but its not NAV. KKR appears to trade at a premium to book value so what great asset does it have that is not properly reflected on its balance sheet? If you aren't a value-based NAV investor, which you don't seem to be, then maybe Tetragon is not for you.
Tetragon could well to continue to trade at a discount to NAV, but there are several possible catalysts
1. Latest tender offers cleared out 85% of the sellers at 10.00, leaving room for stock to appreciate once the 15% of sellers have unloaded their position.
2. A huge chunk of management stock options priced at 10 expires in April 2017. Management may juice the stock in front of option expiration and either way it will be nice to get those off of the balance sheet so we start to get cleaner NAVs.
3. Possible spin-off of asset management business.
4. The accretive nature of buying back stock at a 50% discount is tremendous -- an immediate 100% risk-free NAV return on each dollar spent. Even if the discount is 30%, there is tremendous value in buying back shares. And for once the company did the right thing by buying back without enriching themselves too
5. Management keeps increasing insider ownership of stock. At some point they may own enough where they get tired of the low stock price and restructure the company to boost the stock price.
6. Everything else is overvalued so this looks like the best value in the market right now, and in the past when I have encountered situations like that, I am either missing something big or the stock catches up to the market.
CLO exposure is only a portion of the NAV and has been trending lower over time.
Buybacks are not equivalent to liquidation -- look at all the big banks buying back stock. Tetragon has plenty of cash and large enough assets that the buybacks would juice the stock price before the company gets anywhere close to liquidation mode.
Anyway what alternative uses of cash are so great right now? Almost all asset classes pretty expensive to me.