Dalal.Holdings

Does MO get its $12.8B back?

^ When I get in "smug value investor" mode, I like reminding folks who shop at Armani Exchange that they could have bought their shirts at Walmart instead... ::) Peloton is not solving any real or addressable problems anyway. We all know the average person finds motivation on their own to do things like mountain biking outdoors routinely. The average American needs no help with motivation when it comes to regular cardiovascular exercise. That's why heart disease, diabetes, and obesity are things of the past!

Thanks, that's helpful (more to chew on).

I don't know much about plumbing, but this guy seems to think the opposite: Basically--if I understand correctly-- what he's saying is pre-SLR change, banks needed tier 1 requirements of 3% of assets but SLR change decreased that to 1%. By ditching the SLR change, it will raise that back up to 3% and banks will be net buyers of US Treasuries...

Show me on this doll where PTON hurt you... Who knew that expressing my opinion on a stock and disclosing when I buy and sell something (when I am under zero obligation to do so) is “Pump and dump”. And I guess talking about a business’ prospects even when one doesn’t hold a position is wrong? Why does this forum exist then? I mean you seem confused that I sold and was still positive about the business... That begs the question: what exactly is it that you do here? Are you short? If not, according to your own logic, why are you here? And if you are short, is that also morally wrong that you express negative views while being short? Some interesting moral questions that are actually not... Don’t worry, I’m sure your employer will get you a Peloton bike soon! ;)

8) You sound mad bro... ;D

Don't forget-- The reason why the TAM of EV's was very small before Tesla was because no one made good EVs Same with iPod and iPhone and their respective markets. Most exercise equipment became clothe hangers because of terrible UI and setup that didn't get you back on the treadmill/bike. Peloton has changed that with a fundamentally distinct and superior product that motivates people to use it far more than others. The TAM of old bikes/treadmills is not the right metric.

Looks like "the fad" is alive and well. I wonder which one they'll choose: https://twitter.com/Gold_Mansack/status/1372677527605493769?s=20

On rereading, I did misunderstand what you were saying. Fair enough--I thought you were the one positing 10 million bike sales but you were looking at the current total exercise equipment market and taking 20% of that. I'm not modeling rigid forecasts like you are with a black swan product like this is. I wonder what the "total mobile phone market" was before the iPhone. Or the total "mobile music player market" before the iPod. Or the "total EV market" before Tesla. (Answer: all were a lot smaller and using such analysis was useless and led you to the wrong conclusion). Yes, I view this as an industry-changing product line like the iPod, iPhone, and Tesla cars were to their respective markets, so using existing industry statistics is meaningless. As I said: It's not a pump and dump, it's a wonderful business and brand in the making. Sorry that gets you so triggered...

In your model, if the sales of bikes is 10 million per year at $2000 per bike (your model, not mine), that translates into $20 Billion of sales, not $2 Billion. Off by a factor of 10. This alone blows up your model. Dalal, do me (and yourself) a favor and research the annual sales of exercise equipment annually. What's the number? I'm finding between $10-20 billion per year. So what market share do you think a super-premium bike/treadmill is going to garner? I would bet under 25% unless they change their pricing. I was estimating bike sales in maturity (unless you think people will be buying new bikes like they buy iPads). Throwing out a wild-ass guess of 10 million bikes per year is just that, a guess. If you use any facts that I provided (or feel free to find your own) about gym users, at 10 million bikes per year, every person with a gym membership in the US would have a bike. So now who do you sell to? Hey good luck to you in your trading endeavors. Just please stop pretending that you are making investments based on the long-term. So I point out a major (yet basic) math error in YOUR model and this is your response? Lol. Good luck.

Yep--we'll see in the next 12 mo. For me, it's shown enough evidence that it's a unique, powerful brand with staying power and a good amount of potential growth going forward. My aim is to prove/disprove the "just a fad" or "successful because of the pandemic but sales will drop off" thesis. I think next 4 qtrs will be enough to do that looking at YoY growth. And if it drops significantly (doesn't have to get anywhere near $30), I'll get greedy unless the incoming evidence goes the other way.

In your model, if the sales of bikes is 10 million per year at $2000 per bike (your model, not mine), that translates into $20 Billion of sales, not $2 Billion. Off by a factor of 10. This alone blows up your model. I don't pay attention to Foley's claims. If in the next 10 years they get to 10 million connected subs + 10 million non-connected subs/streamers + roll out their service to existing precor machines around the world (for a recurring fee) + commercial/hotel sales + a mildly successful apparel/accessory line, I'll be sitting happy.

Oh boy... ::) Please point to the "adjectives" here: I don't see any "adjectives". If you want to draw a connection between Nasdaq 100 inclusion and Pelotons being drying racks, that's on you. Not the connection I was making between the two lines in this post, but I guess you made it in your own reading. I don't draw connections between index inclusion and how customers use a company's products. Sorry if that's what you inferred. Seemed like common sense to me. The "fad thesis" has been occurring much longer than 2 weeks, in fact over years including when Andrew Left made it in late 2019. It has thus far not been proven out. The burden of proof is on the bears because that is a core part of their thesis (all exercise trends are fads and this one is no different), not the longs. I am looking for evidence that bears are right and so far I see no compelling evidence. Please point out exactly where I did that. I made no such claim. In fact, 1 year ago I said the exact opposite: No doubt the pandemic boosted sales. My own thesis is that sales will continue strong > 30% growth per annum even after the pandemic. We'll have to see what happens in the next 12 mo and if it does, in my view it disproves the "it's just the pandemic" or "it's just a fad" thesis. Here's an example of Thesis Creep: "Just wait until GM makes an EV, Tesla will lose sales to the Bolt" "Just wait until the i8 is out: BMW is coming" "Just wait until the Taycan is out: Porsche is coming" "Just wait for the VW ID.4" Or with Peloton: "It's just a fad" "They're only doing well now because of the pandemic" "Let's move onto another argument: look at the insider sales!"

Just go read the TSLA thread for a lesson on how severe thesis creep can get.