Sergio8

It seems like Allegiance completed the acquisition at the end of July on even poorer terms: https://www.allegiancecoal.com.au/site/PDF/aef4322d-fb18-426b-a8de-6d52da414b50/AllegiancetoCloseAcquisitionofNewElkCokingCoalMine Does anybody know how it works out for the CVR: are we supposed to receive the cash as it is paid out or wait years before Allegiance pays out their entire debt before we can receive cash from the deal?

CEO and CFO are now buying the stock as well.

At a time when most managements are caught swimming naked and cut dividends and buybacks, Orca is increasing returns to shareholders. They will soon restart repurchasing shares in the open market at very attractive valuations: https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=7820024655606437&qm_symbol=ORC.B

Confirmed by today's press release: https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6955383736765533&qm_symbol=ORC.B

The epidemy seems limited there for now. I doubt that the nation will not need electricity due to this anyway.

We may have further buybacks this summer when NCIB could be renewed... We'll see!

At these prices, PAET basically comes for free, so I believe this is a terrific use of the cash here. The Shaymar Trust is going to contribute some shares to the tender, but their resulting ownership will be the same as before if the tender is fully subscribed.

Please note that this is a holdco headquartered in Tortola, BVI, so the tax may not be applicable here. Please note that I am not a tax advisor and I don't plan to tender my shares anyway. I think they can complete their bid at 7.5 CAD, and I wouldn't set the price higher if I was them.

The news release (available here: https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6596107907223711&qm_symbol=ORC.B) implies there are negotiations for license renewal, as capex would be required to develop Songo-Songo North. From my understanding, such a capex outlay would be out of question if the license is not renewed. After the successful NCIB (which went much better than expected according to management), a massive SIB looks warranted here. Management understands capital allocation very well in my opinion: so wait and see!

They are looking at a very broad range of alternatives, including a divestiture of the Tanzanian business, a sale of the whole company and a substantial return of capital to shareholders. I think RBC will be able to present the assets to a wider range of buyers. Basically, they are weighing their options before making a final decision. My own preference would be a substantial share buyback before doing anything else (the anything else depending on the available options for the PAET stake). -- At this stage, they have exhausted about half of their share repurchase authorization at the end of august (bought back ~ 500 000 shares). I hope they finish this one quickly and follow with another one. I also noted that CEO Nigel Friend became a buyer of the stock.

$ 18.44 Mil for Tanesco receivables seems too conservative in my opinion. Per the latest filings, the gross amount of Tanesco receivables is higher than $ 122 Mil USD. Also, if we check the terms of the Swala deal, "the arrears of Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited and arrears owing by Songas Limited as at the date of the Swala deal were US$125.3 million, less an estimated US$51 million in TPDC Profit Gas payable under the Production Sharing Contract for the Songo Songo field on receipt of net revenues realized from these arrears, which results in a net amount of US$74.3 million." Since then, ~19 million of this amount has been paid and the resulting net amount is thus US$55 million. -- In addition to this, what's interesting here compared to US producers is that these guys are making money with low capex and don't depend on commodity prices. I agree that there are cheaper Oil & Gas producers in Canada and in the US currently on a PV10 basis. A few of them even seem like decent businesses, though I cannot value any of them as easily as Orca. That's why Orca is the Oil & Gas company that I like the most.

Orca just published Q2 results: https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6145656859006118&qm_symbol=ORC.B Increased gas deliveries lead to increased cash-flows, albeit at lower margins because realized prices decrease as volumes increase (because the Tanzanian government gets an additional profit tax). Those results are very good, and this trend can be expected to continue (and perhaps improve) in the future as more gas plants are commissioned in Tanzania. Daily share buybacks are also increasing, which is very good for Net Asset Value per share. I would say that these are very good news overall. Tanesco continues to pay its bills and arrears, cash & investments stand at 147.712 Mil USD, i.e. 5,575 CAD per share, which means that the PAET stake + Tanesco receivables are only valued at $ 29 Mil CAD (less than $ 22 Mil USD) or 0,825 CAD per share, which seems ridiculous to me.

Dear fellow shareholders, Orca is currently putting together a comprehensive list of shareholders (as much as is possible). However, most are registered through trading houses so they don’t know the identity and quantity of shareholdings for many shareholders. If you are willing to share this information (name and quantity of shares owned) with the company, it would be greatly appreciated. Please feel free to PM the info to me so that I can forward a single file to the company's management. Thank you in advance if you are willing to help the company.

We are indeed heading in the right direction. Honestly, I am strongly opposed to the company selling itself to Swala under the aforementioned deal terms. I believe there are much better things to do in order to increase Orca's net asset value per share from its current range of 12-16 CAD to 16-22 CAD without any license extension deal (and much more if such a deal is achieved). I believe that the company really shouldn't sell itself here (it would be a bid mistake IMO), but only put PAET for sale. But we should do well from here anyway (I'm just advocating for the best possible outcome and hope we will reach it).

The company has posted an update on its operations which confirms the increasing sales volumes and the commissioning of a new power plant in H2 2019: https://web.tmxmoney.com/article.php?newsid=6248643230617667&qm_symbol=ORC.B