winjitsu

Save your petty jabs for the politics section.

Love the new site! Since it's new and people are throwing in suggestions. One thing I see on gambling forums that I think this forum could benefit from is an Diary / Journal section for members to post their portfolio updates / investments. Thinking an entire subforum for posts like this: I know there are lots of people that would love to establish credibility and a track record on their way to managing OPM. This would be a great springboard for them.

Respect for Bruce, but he and Eddie had the "smartest guys in the room" type hubris with Sears. It's this hubris that led them to oversize the position. That rubbed me the wrong way. Chamath OTOH, don't get that vibe from him. Definitely more snake-oil salesman / pump-and-dump.

The beauty of cost + plus procurement. Wait till you see some of these Boeing and Lockheed contracts ? That being said, getting consumer objects to mil-spec isn't trivial or cheap, and this probably includes a maintenance contract.

Not India specific, but generally for a VC investment, atleast one of the investors in the round needs to lead the series (determine pricing) and go through the basic diligence steps (verify real prototypes, right team etc etc). If they have a lead investor lined up and they are looking more money to finish up the raise, I'd say it's worthwhile to consider. If it's pre-product, your making a big bet into the management team and the story, so I'd focus there. If you're a lone angel / seed investor, there's no lead investor, and you're too far to do the diligence ... that would be an easy pass in my book.

In a sense most of these already happen... Chinese state banks already bail out / merge with failing banks. Ant was exactly that type of spinoff to enrich certain persons. Possible that they'd issue shares but that'd spook the market... control doesn't need to happen through share ownership though, just expressed through pressure at the board level. No new shares needed to be issued when the CEO was forced out and the new guy brought to the table in a much more humble manner. That's the risk I see. For some it's not palatable. I personally think CCP representation at corporations is the new normal and the price of investing in China. I take this into account with position sizing. If Amazon traded at BABA's valuation, I'd make Amazon a 50% position. But for me, the most this will ever be is ~10%.

Yes. If you have friends in China, you'll learn how essential Taobao is to daily life, ANT financial is to payments etc. China needs a cloud champion, and is looking like Alicloud more day by day. Party will just expand ownership / control rather than let it die.

You missed a one post accounts on this thread a few months back explicitly asking us to refrain from politics. Perhaps we're all on a list somewhere :)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-spac-man-chamath-palihapitiya-speaks-reddit-and-wall-street-listen-11615006818?mod=hp_lead_pos7 Another article. I hope we're at peak Chamath. "In an emailed statement through a spokesman, Palihapitiya said he would redirect the funds from the share sale toward a “large investment” focused on the fight against climate change." Next bubble found? ESG next? :)

There was a VC that lamented missing out on PDD because he thought BABA/taobao would eat it's lunch. He realized that tier-1/tier-2 cities have much different habits than tier-3/tier-4 cities where PDD thrives. Perhaps a starting point for your DD if you can find who said that and the rest of his thinking.

Not getting the hate on VZ. Seems like a good company at a great price given ZIRP. Going through a capex supercycle with 5G, but when built out is done, should begin to pick up market share from cable internet cos. Definitely slipped my radar and will be looking to pick up a tracking position. Feeling meh on CVX though. Previous investments like XOM, PSX, and Flying J I would say were an overall mixed bag (but maybe... this time it's different? Like airlines? :P)

Cultural context is needed here. Group buys are very common in the Sinophere. Not uncommon to get a email from your coworkers to your company listserv asking if people want to join in on a group buy for mattresses, moon cakes etc.

I'd take the same trade too. Only points out the massive return asymmetry in the companies he's peddling.

Here's a market topping interview if I've ever seen one: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-12/the-king-of-spacs-wants-you-to-know-he-s-the-next-warren-buffett?srnd=premium

+1 VTI or similar total market index funds. Research on value outperformance vs growth is based on holding the value stock even as it exits the value criteria. Value focused funds, as a result, almost always sell winners too early. You don't have this issue with a total market fund.