Deepdive

FYI Rhizome_Partners_Q1_2020_Investor_Letter_Final.pdf Massif_Capital_First_Quarter_Letter_to_Investors.pdf

Anyone know of any funds/managers that made short position bets in the last quarter. I found the following: 1. Ackman/Pershing Square is an obvious one here with his CDS trade. 2. Universa Investments did 4,144% - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/taleb-advised-universa-tail-risk-fund-returned-3-600-in-march 3. Rhizome Partners bought a basket of 15-20% OTM puts that did 11.2x 4. Massif Capital bought 30% OTM puts with 90 days expirations that returned ~7x If anyone has any others, please feel to share.

EVI and IDW conjure up images of a pyromaniac walking into a crowded theater

How much of ADW's historical returns is from this? I can imagine a nice CAGR when stocks go from single digits to $50s, at least until they go back below $10. Are they still in IDW?

Very impressed with Peter Kamin's track record at Calloway. Now Calloway was really a retail operation with free rent because they own the real estate. Those have a tendency to suck value investors in. But, it does form a good foundation to turn around a retail operation. I don't recall TTS having any owned real estate. At the same time, nurseries in a growth area is likely a better structural play. When it comes to retail concepts, it needs to really resonate. It needs to offer something unique. Undifferentiated retail is where good value dollars go to die.

I actually think that Aspen could be a huge multi-year multi-bagger. The CEO is a bit nuts. But I think there is a thin line between visionaries and crazies. I was skeptical when he hosted a conference call to announce the new pre-licensure program. Everything he said has come true. People are dying to sign up for the program. The product sells itself. I just wish they have a better balance sheet. I hope we can crowdsource the research here. If you have friends or family who are nurses or looking at nursing program, it would be great if they can provide some feedback.

I think this is a great summary of the situation. I spoke with someone recently and mentioned the 7.1% that traded in October. His response is "holy cow", 7.1% in 2 days for a 22% float company is a major event. This forum is starting to have a conversation about GRIF. It took some time to convince people. There are still some skeptics who are overly focused on the "no sale" scenario. Yet you have guys like ThePupil and Gregmal buying shares. These two have expertise in real estate investing and tend to get in at decent prices. Gregmal has the 6th sense for good entry points. It seems like the downside is only $2-4 if it trades back down to $36 because Gregmal and ThePupil will be buying it along with others. Perhaps you don't get the full $72 without a sale, but even at 75-80% of NAV, it trades at $54-58 which is a good 35-45% higher than the current price. You also have the free optionality that it gets bought out at $72. It isn't like there are 5 articles on Seeking Alpha touting Ricks' Cabaret. The articles of Griffin on SA are a few years old and a lot has happened since then.

It's amazing how much more profitable monopolies are versus duopolies. Imagine if Lyft did not exist and Uber had all the market share?

In the short term, they are trying to create an asset management subsidiary that they can potentially spin off at a later date if they are successful with capital raising and performance. So there is no short term 2-3 year risk of a take under. In the long run, I generally find these large insider/family control companies to not think about these topics like a distressed investor like a Brookfield or Oaktree. If they have a public vehicle, they tend to leave it alone. Culturally, I believe having a publicly traded company in Australia is more of a social status. Back to the fundamentals, it trades below liquidation value, pays a healthy dividend, and actually has a pretty good operating business.

I agree with this assessment. Look at this thread, people do not have a good idea of what the land parcels are worth. If they take $60-80mm of land parcel and use it as equity to buy $120-$160mm of warehouses. The market will be able to value it much easier.

Both ThePupil and BG2008 have good discussions on real estate topics. I like BG's discussion on B malls, dept stores, and why he avoids them. Ericopoly is great for back the truck up ideas. I wish he would post more. Packer is great for leveraged situations and telcos. Liberty opened my eyes to investing in better companies.

I like the land sales. GRIF is converting non-income producing assets into warehouses. $3.7mm of cash proceeds that they can redeploy elsewhere. Even if the swap is value neutral, the market will assign value to the warehouses. Orlando is likely a beach head deal. I expect more deals to come there.

Producing Wind turbines is a mediocre business at best. I looked at Vestas a while ago and didn’t see a reason to get exited. Agreed - but everything in the wind farm business is mediocre. Per public markets, the choices are either the utilities using them - or the turbine makers themselves. Different types of business. Turbines pollute (noise, aesthetics, etc). Viable locations are limited, and damage suits are working through the system. Hence utilities have a long tail risk, that must be included. Turbine makers not so much. Turbines are two businesses. Once/done construction, and erection/decommission + repair/maintenance. When the industry is growing the money's in construction, when its mature it's in servicing. Break everything down into flat-packs, and ship by the thousands to extract economies of scale. Asia (& therefore Asian manufacturers) has a material advantage. Easier to override public objections, cleaner air/water quicker - by leapfrogging o/g and coal as a fuel source, and lots of sparsely populated windblown desert/plains to put them in. For every 1 'western' turbine, maybe 2-3 Asian turbines are being installed. And not just in Asia. The problem is time to market development. These are FUTURE cash flows - that must be discounted at a high rate to reflect the uncertainties. Current NPV is negative to marginal - at best. Hence the industry subsidization. You don't get rich, your kids do. SD So turbines are like giant metal trees that eat carbons. You plant them and get virtually no return, but your kids are glad you did just like you don't get to sit in the shade of the trees that you plant.

I used to use EarningsCast app on my iPhone and it was great. I can't find the app in the Apps store anymore. Does anyone know what happened to them? Does anyone have good recommendation for conference call app similar to a podcast format?

There was supposedly some quadruple witching or whatever today. I noticed quite a few companies, particularly RE ones that got massive volume surges in the last half hour or so of trading. Which other companies had massive volume surges in the last half hour? Lately, it feels like value is actually working.