Dazel

A couple more things because it’s rare you see something like this SNC situation. When you are beat down as far SNC was and you are fighting short manipulation It seems like an eternity to get out of it…and then bang part of your thesis is proven correct. The stock jumps from $17 at the low to $34…a double! You get impatient because you think it’s worth $50 today and $100 in a year and half…but you doubled your money (not really no one got in at $17)). So it goes like this…where’s the buyback! Wheres the dividend raise?WSP trades for 3x SNC…but we have 407 and they don’t! They are buying growth with their shares (dilution) and still we have a bigger back log. We have nuclear division which is the best in the world….why are we not $50? Why not $70? Maybe there is something I am missing? Do all those shorts I just beat know something I don’t…it’s so cheap is there something else? Why is so cheap still? Human nature. Lesson…forget everything in the past…would you buy today? SNC was the most hated stock on the planet…not anymore…redemption is something that few get the opportunity to experience. The easy money is the money that will be made now in SNC when it has been fixed and the market is still thinking about the past. When all the decisions are easy…when the stock moves from $70 to $72 one day no one will even know…but when it falls from $33 to $31…for those that bought early it’s a trigger. Don’t get sucked in to that emotion…I owe a debt of gratitude to many here for their help with Fairfax many moons ago that built up my capital position. We bought below $100 and had a hell of ride…Bank of America we were buying at $6 many were buying warrants…when you get a blue chip company on the operating table with great assets you buy hand and fist because that is how you get rich in the stock market. I am buying because the upside from here is enormous. The business model is great…and will demand a premium multiple…need to be patient and buy dips. "The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble, we want to buy them when they're on the operating table." -Warren Buffett .

Gabriel, With regards to your recent stockhouse post I have a couple of comments: I don’t believe that SNC should wait for an upgrade of their credit ratings…they should be in the market now or immediately after the sale of Oil and gas to extend maturities when money is free you take it. If they have to pay 100 to 200 basis points more so be it…the after tax result is not a big deal when the opportunity cost of buying your stock back is so high at .35 on the dollar. It should be done immediately…and we have let management know this. Remember they paid back $300m debt in March and do not have any maturities for sometime. The short position of the UK hedge fund is no longer relevant other than their small time manipulation of prices short term in-light volume. This is a pair trade likely long something like WSP…now meaningless…SNC has already written the entire Kentz transaction off…past. Buyback program and dividend increase are immediate post oil and gas close in my opinion. I also do not believe that capital should be sold it has 0 cost base so does not make sense even at $3.5b. It is the piece (collateral hard asset) that will allow an SNC a low refinance rate on extending maturities. It is also the greatest asset in the world and will continue to appreciate. It’s a cornerstone of our margin of safety. Gabriel you have done An unbelievable job with your analysis on SNC. Just a little patience…Oil and gas sale is imminent (second quarter close) and management said it was on track at the latest conference call. A few numbers …$277m gain on the sale of O &G, they have won their lawsuit on COVID payments at LSTK crosslink (likely $100m plus to be added to earnings this year) and $2.5b in capital assets are not recognized on the balance sheet. Once the sale is complete SNC becomes in play….if management does not listen and do a buyback and dividend raise SNC will get take over bids. It’s too cheap! When oil and gas is sold we hit $40 immediately in my opinion. For what it is worth. Dazel

Very possible that they get a second chance at the BB run..wake up Mr. Chen.

no one pays attention to me and I that is understandable and likely prudent lol....but if I could see what was happening in the market short term...anyone could have...BB was being set up.they should have been aware. see my previous text here before it happened at $10... .split up strategic direction...earnings pre announcement would have to be issued to take advantage of the market would have squeezed this to $30 and they would have been able to issue shares when they popped...take advantage...at the market raise as Tesla has done. chen did not do it...he is asleep... it would have had to be quick...but if I saw it coming....Are they not paid to do this? Millions and millions? Sold BB at great profit and hope Fairfax could synthetically do so as I discussed... Back to buying SNC as Prem should be.

well here we are...operators are ready for what I described earlier...Hoping that they get more time but Chen should have been ready to take advantage he was not...BB is not a private company. I sold. Hell of a run....will buy more snc..

and bought more today...

To put things in perspective: Crowdstrike market cap is $50b-They had revenues of $874.44m last year... EV car related companies (BB has deals with 23 of the top 25 EV companies) pick one and you will find a nose bleed valuation The patent negotiations are obviously with Facebook for the patent sale since they did not recognize any revenue from their settlement with them in January. As much as Wallstreet bets seems to be wild and crazy...If Blackberry was split up and evaluated on similar metrics or even half of similar metrics $30 would not seem that crazy! The market does not know what the hell Blackberry is still.... split it up now or sell off the pieces ....while the market is there. Fairfax has earned the right to do this by holding and saving this company they deserve fair market value for the sum of the parts.

Have discussed on the Fairfax board as well... Blackberry is up another 20% Premarket...If there is (and there better be) any internal discussions with regards to a split up or sale of the patent portfolio Chen had better announce them to the public in order to allow insiders the ability to hedge or sell their positions if this does go parabolic like AMC is now. As discussed, I would rather they actually are doing this in real time rather than announcing the internal strategic review of it. Chen has to be looking at it.

Have discussed on the Fairfax board as well... Blackberry is up another 20% Premarket...If there is (and there better be) any internal discussions with regards to a split up or sale of the patent portfolio Chen had better announce them to the public in order to allow insiders the ability to hedge or sell their positions if this does go parabolic like AMC is now. As discussed, I would rather they actually are doing this in real time rather than announcing the internal strategic review of it. Chen has to be looking at it.

BB up 20% Premarket...in my opinion if this heads towards where the others have AMC and GME...you will see FFH synthetically hedge their position they are too smart to kill the rally and hurt their positions value. Remember a large part of their position is convertibles. Fairfax and Blackberry should come forward with any discussions of reorganization-split up or sale discussions of the patent-royalty portfolio so there is nothing that can hold them back with regards to material information. Allowing all involved to be able to hedge or sell into a parabolic move.

Is it time to split Blackberry up? Finally? Wallstreet bets appears to want to take Blackberry to the moon! If John Chen is awake why would he not let them? EV stocks trade at nose bleed levels create a single company and have the market decide what it is worth. Security business is also a stand alone business that should be sold to bigger company that wants to partner with QNX as well. Finally, the royalty portfolio or patent if you prefer should also be sold. It is possible that Blackberry could raise money if it gets the parabolic move it had in Feb....AMC did...this would allow them to cash up for the three way split. It’s time to do it now....while the world is watching....or risk falling back into the value trap it has been in the past. And yes Iam a shareholder-speculator (disclosure) who would like to see the value realized ...it’s time. Fairfax should look at this opportunity to do the same. They unlike me were unable to hedge their position because of restrictions in Feb. These are public companies and when an opportunity presents itself you take advantage of it...Blackberry has been in the penalty box for years...the company would trade a completely different multiple split up. Will they do it? Who knows but this is an opportunity...for redemption.

Fairfax did not sell at these levels March 1 when their restrictions came off. The checking 10x certainly was to find out what their options were pardon the pun! They would have hedged their position for sure if they could have...we know how much they utilize swaps even with their own stock. If we do head back to $20 that’s is what they will do... I am going to post on the Blackberry forum but my thesis is it is time right now for Fairfax-Blackberry to take advantage of this market. Split Blackberry up now...while the market is looking at them. It will create several possible scenarios into a market that WANTS to like Blackberry.

Agreed. Of the 5 catalysts for the stock I wrote about earlier only 1) trajectory of the service business (all of SNC revenue will be services) 5) LSTK remains in check Were established. And....Bay street analysts jumped on board. The biggest Bear was atRaymond James where he went from $25 to $40. These guys and gals are not of great interest to me but they do help with confidence in stocks for the crowds. 2) Oil and gas sale finalization is the game changer for the company as it signifies SNC entering a new business plan area that they hav been working hard on. The WSP model. 3) raising the dividend and 4) stock buyback program will take the stock back to all time highs. SNC will become a Canadian “Blue Chip” again on these catalysts I bought more again on Friday at $32.80. It’s buck for about .37 cents still even after the recent rise. Dazel

Mick I expect a refinance taking cash to $1 billion....cash flow next year will likely all be paid out in buy backs and dividends....and that will continue forever... it will be a cash flow machine after 2021 LSTK year is over...remaining LSTK will be profitable but heavy on cash use in 2021. Write offs are over. Prem I hope you bought.... Disclosure. I bought more on the open...

I accept that I was wrong on a dividend and buyback program announced today. Here is how I see it...debt ratings agencies would NOT want to see it. SNC will refinance to long maturities after Oil and gas is sold (ratings agency upgrades would happen after this). The cheaper debt and long duration of it would mean absolute no liquidity risk. It is prudent to do this and quite frankly I am a bit humbled by missing the maturity schedule of debt. It is not a problem but those fiscally responsible like Fairfax choose to pay higher interest expense for longer maturity debt. The extra interest is a trade off for liquidity. management could have announced a dividend hike by a couple of cents and easily covered it...but it would be promotional. I appreciate that they when the increase the dividend it will be back to historical levels. If you were going to take advantage of your low stock price you don’t want o raise dividends before a buyback it’s dumb. Managements that do this are promotional not looking to buy back their company cheap. So...I was wrong for today...but expect a stock buyback announcement on the completion of the oil and gas assets. Later this year expect a “substantial” dividend increase back to historical levels....$1.25 per annum to start and rising because the business model now is FAR superior to the past model. Today I am confident in my assessment...SNC is fixed and poised to do very well in the future. When the market realizes it...I will stop buying. ”If you wait for the robins, spring will be over” WB