Joe689

https://www.obsidianenergy.com/press-releases/obsidian-energy-announces-early-start-to-second-half-development-program-and-corporate-update-webcast/ - from this morning IMO, CIC vetoed last sale because the new partner was really suspect. Suspect in that would they survive and would they put the capital in. It was a devil you know better than the devil you do not know. I think SD is right, CIC defiantly wants this asset developed. And we are not doing it. So, it is logical that something should happen here. TMX comes online in a couple years and will ensure those tight differentials. We are probably in no hurry to sell it because its value continues to increase as we get closer to TMX.

Looks like a year from now was too long. You can buy that house now. Almost doubled again

Let's get back on topic. Q1 ER this morning This company has really undergone a massive transformation. Between the new management team and commodity prices this company is all of sudden more than viable. Profit going up, production going up, and debt being paid down. With the low share count, and Q2 breakup, massive debt will be paid down and force this equity to re-rate quick They remain mostly unhedged as well. If WTI continues its climb, (already Q2 $5+ above Q1 averages) , this continues to multi bag

Let's be fair here - I applaud Liberty for keeping track of things.  There has been blatant cheer-leading on this stock by some individuals, who have essentially claimed that it is on the verge of breakout, as it lost almost 100% of its value, shares consolidated 7-into-1 and then price dropping further per-share well below pre-consolidation, etc.  I see Liberty's comment as an attempt to keep others honest. Nope. Same as the proverbial bitter waitress, some folks just cannot move on  ;) It has been 10 YEARS+ since PWE hit its peak. All that time, and never took advantage ...  it's all on the HODLer. Now with a little luck ..... that current 100M of partially guided FCF will be a little higher tomorrow. SD If you re-read this thread, you have been buying all the way down and claiming bottom like 15 times. This thread was basically 100% positive for years, which is why I like to keep track of it, there's a lot to learn here, like the SD thread or the ALS thread or the SHLD thread. You don't just study success stories to learn. This includes my own mistakes, I don't shy away from them, and I encourage others to do the same with theirs. Moving the goalposts and thesis drift has cost many people a lot of money, so it's good to keep it in mind. In SD's defense, you are not aware of what his basis is?  Maybe he correctly sized his positions so that it never became more than over weight.  Didn't Buffet say something like if you liked it up there and it is now down here, you should be happy to buy more.  Sometimes it takes longer than want, always does.  Anyways, I was not early as some but was down 80% and double, tripled down.  I got up big time.  Took short term gains against my long term losses so at par.  Now letting house money ride....  Took 4 years but have unrealized 100% gain on original investment This was my second trip too.  Bought at yearly lows before Dodsland sale when it doubled then too.  Volatility pays if you stick w it

But 'luck tomorrow' means a higher debt load and I think higher debt multiples depending on how well BNE's aggressive drill plan goes.  They have kept those results quiet.  Hard to tell what BNE can do after their massive program.  Their Q4 was horrendous.  Eitherway, if you combine the companies, you still need significant debt reduction.  Nobody will assign proper equity multiples until the debt gets to safe levels.

The question I have is where OBE should want this deal anymore.  BNE report was quite poor.  When the deal was proposed, it was really a dire environment and thought better to grasp onto eachother when the boat is sinking.  The current environment is now quite constructive.  So I wonder if OBE is still 100% committed.  In theory, the combined company would have better access to financing but now we just got 18 months anyways.  Time, focus, and money was spent on this offer but unsure if OBE should want it anymore.  Offer was not pulled so...

ER released this morning, morning of tender expiration. Although somewhat aggressive pricing assumptions (but then again currently in the money)  they partially guide 2022 having 100m FCF while keeping production flat.  That is on a 150 market cap. Legal costs are finally over with a settlement as well.  Great IP on new wells This company has turned the corner.  That was a long turn.  I am up handsomely. 

OBE tender offer for BNE expires Monday PRs have been amazingly quiet. Mouse silent. And OBE has a bank redetermination due 3/31 and year end still not out despite their last tender extension stating to allow BNE shareholders to apple-apple the reports. This name has been a high flyer as of late. Probably something coming but what do I know Stocks are near par for the exchange offer

And another 1 month only extension on bank line. Mgmt is trying to stay naked and banks are unhappy about it.

Looks to be going parabolic

We got action. Looks like the market wants the merger.

https://www.bonterraenergy.com/investors/news-releases/bonterra-energy-corp-advises-shareholders-to-take-no-action-at-this-time-regarding-unsolicited-offer I think it is 100% driven by the banks. Bonterra is not taking up a full fledged defense strategy and instead 'waiting' till after their bank redetermination. So literally OBE's Loukas put it 100% on the banks. Maybe very well played. I think it is a done deal. Fink (who by OBE's disclosure was being uncooperative) is not part of the independent committee to review the deal.

Looks like it came down to the "steel fist" Take-over/under circular filed today

I think the banks are in control. The banks are both the biggest stakeholder in both companies. They share the same syndicate. Bonterra has been Month-to-Month literally in their re-determinations since March. That is unique to Bonterra. Actually, last night was another deadline, and only another 30 days.... Obsidian adds this (in bold) "We would note that we have shared our assumptions with our banking syndicate, our noteholders and their respective financial advisors."

They have been 'in play' for years. No secret. Be interesting to see if the 'gap' closes. That might be telling