WayWardCloud

I don't think anyone here has said they were actively betting against Malone (shorting LSXMA). We're simply unsure about the long term value of the one-way satellite technology that's the infrastructure behind SiriusXM, see a lot of competition with deep pockets attacking the content side, and have witnessed Malone and Maffei incinerate money buying back Qurate shares over the years. Ps: almost 40% of my portfolio is invested in companies related to John Malone so don't get me wrong I'm a big fan as well ?

When do you guys think they will hit the 80%? I owned the stock briefly for that very reason about 3 years ago and sold when they bought Pandora because it brought their percentage ownership down right when they were about the cross the threshold. I'm conflicted because I love the special situation aspect but I have no faith whatsoever in the underlying op co, so I'm trying to be in and out of this quickly around the time of the event.

I've sold about 20% of my positions in both WFC and BAC yesterday just to delever a bit and bring my bet on US banks back to a percentage of the portfolio I'm comfortable with but I see no reason to sell more meaningfully since none of the key events of the thesis have played out yet (Scharf showing meaningful progress has been made, asset cap removal, divi/buyback increase). In my experience, every time I have assumed upcoming good news were already in a stock price I ended up selling too early and the shares did pop on the good news... So I'm sitting on my hands with this one. Let's see!

Selling entirely my huge 15% position in JD.com at $38 in April after holding it for two years from around $35. It trades at $100 now. Why? The stock was flat since January while some of my other holdings like BAC and WFC were down 35% so I concluded the later had become relatively better investments and that it made sense to move capital towards the bigger bargains. I was expecting China to be faring much worse than the US given that it was the original birthplace of the pandemic. I was also convinced their weird looking number of cases/death charts were a fraud and the government was hiding a massive number of cases that was going to be revealed any day (I'm still fairly convinced the numbers were fake but they did end up controlling the epidemic very well moving away quickly from their first "cover up and deny everything" response, while on the other hand the US government... Well, let's not go there.) Mistake The logic was flawed because I failed to recognize the crisis had not hurt all companies in the same way. Maybe one company deserves a -35% and another one 0% due to a specific set of new circumstances. Can't get stuck on old price targets when the world has clearly changed. I knew JD as an online retailer was founded during the Asian SARS crisis and I should have realized they would be very well equipped for this.

I agree with both the points above (puzzling use of cash flows but solid results). In a world of very low returns on debt, how come Latin American cable operators still borrow at such high (5.5-6%) rates? LILA and TIGO just went through a horrendous situation without getting seriously close to defaulting so it seems to me that they have proven their resilience to bond holders and banks. I wonder what Tigo Money would be valued at if it were its own company? They could IPO the stub on the NASDAQ and would most probably receive a very rich valuation, use the proceeds to both accelerate the fintech growth and the buybacks/new builds on the cable side. Tigo Money may very well be the hidden crown jewel of Millicom down the line and it got a big acceleration from covid. All in all, and despite the recent questionable use of cash (which we might not understand because we are not given the full picture), this looks like such a coiled spring to me and i see everything getting nicely into place for a huge run up, baring risks inherent to emerging markets (currency, political).

Liberty Broadband Millicom General Motors Tessenderlo Alphabet Bank of America Wells Fargo Live Nation Liberty Latin America Liberty Global Financiere de l'Odet Alibaba Interactive Brokers Formula One Idorsia Amazon Peyto Ordered by size with the biggest stake being Liberty Broadband at 14% and the smallest one Peyto at 1.3%. About 33% of the whole is invested in John Malone related cable assets so they better perform :P

Does anyone know if selling a class C from any of Malone's companies to buy a class A or vice versa counts as a wash sale? Could the two securities be considered as "substantially identical" even though they hold different voting power and trade at a slight price discrepancy?

The new LILAK shares will be issued on October 2nd. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/liberty-latin-america-ltd-announces-130000734.html Right now I see some new LILAK.EX (subscription) and LILAK.OS (oversubscription) in my portfolio but I don't think anything is settled yet.

If you have signed up your LILAR for over-subscription you might want to double check your order just to be safe. It took two hours over the phone today for Interactive Brokers to allow me to enter a value superior to zero under that box (nb.3). I had signed up my shares already a couple weeks ago without a problem but the terms of the deal have been updated and somehow my order didn't transfer and I was "locked out" from entering it again. It was probably just a glitch with the broker but my conspiracy theory brain says maybe Malone is trying to yet again stick it to other shareholders with some last minute small change in the terms trickery since the deadline is tomorrow :-X

I honestly don't care if my order flow is being sold but 1.I don't trust Robinhood to be nearly as solid as a major broker in case of extraordinary events so no way I'm parking any substantial amount of money with them. 2.Interactive Brokers' Portfolio margin is unmatched. 3.Ethically, I don't like to be associated with people whose entire business plan is to take advantage of idiots gambling away their life savings.

Who is John R.? I don't know if linking with a telco is necessarily coming up soon, given how advantageous their MVNO contract with Verizon is, but I do know that Charter is set to start paying taxes in 2022 which gives them a natural deadline to reshuffle things around within the next two years. Hopefully buying out Liberty's shares and the GCI Alaskan operations can serve that purpose. I personally think Charter and Comcast would be better off on their own for the next 3 or so years, letting the 3 telcos bare the capex necessary to deploy 5G on their own. I don't think consumers will accept to pay much more for 5G but telcos have to do the investment anyway to not get outdone by each other. Returns could be horrendous. Meanwhile Cable is done with its big investments and can just watch FCF pile up and fire up symetrical 10G/25G if anyone poses a threat (5G fixed, satellites, fiber outbuilders). Once 5G is done being deployed, it will make sense to merge and enjoy the synergies. Down the road, 5G might develop new usages such as IOT and self driving cars and end up making real money, who knows, but those futuristic expectations won't get monetized at scale nearly as fast as the rosy pictures painted by T, VZ and TMUS CEOs, if ever, so best stay out during the initial investment. Malone also mentioned a potential merger with Altice but said it didn't happen because neither Rutledge nor Drahi was willing to give up control. I don't even know if the regulator would allow it given they blocked Comcast from acquiring Time Warner Cable back in the days.

So many thoughtful answers, thanks guys, lots to think about! LC, you are hired, can you start yesterday? ;D

Can you think of any scenario under which the asset cap is being lifted during a Democratic presidency? The progressive wing of the party has made punishing big banks a core symbol of their beliefs and, even though Biden and Harris are more pragmatic and may decide it's in the customer's interest to re-open the flow of lending, I can't think of a way they could ever lift the cap without being assailed by Sanders/Warren/AOC who command a big chunk of the younger part of the electorate and I doubt they want to lose precious approval points on that particular issue. Are we potentially looking at 4, maybe 8 more years under a cap? How could Wells PR spins a lift so that a Biden administration saves face? Can Wells still do OK from this level in the even of a cap "forever"? Ps: I have tried my best to stick to the facts and use a neutral tone. I know how fast anything that touches politics can derail here. I humbly request that you try as well.

Thanks for clarifying! I'll take it all with a grain of salt since there's no source but super interesting. Your last comment is what I keep thinking every single time the CCP does anything. Long term they seem to be creating an army of resentful powerful people all around them : former CCP politicians getting thrown under the bus, Founders of huge companies (Alibaba) being canned, billionaires having to flee to Taiwan, the US, Australia, Canada, before they get "disappeared", top University professors and researchers and in general Tibetans, Uyghurs, Hmongs, Taiwanese, Hong-Kongers, Indians, Japanese, Koreans, Vietnamese people... They're creating their own opposition constantly both all around and inside themselves. Maybe that's just another day at work for autocracies though.

I'm definitely one of "those". Could you please explain? I couldn't find anything googling "Bei-Dai-River meeting". By the way, thanks for starting this thread Undervalued! I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being dozens of pages long as I think the US/China relationship (not just tech) will be one of the major questions to untangle if we want to be successful investors during the next decade.