chesko182

Published a write-up on UHAL earlier today. Enjoy and happy to discuss. https://sleepwell.substack.com/p/is-america-ready-to-move-again

I wrote about music royalties as it relates to streaming, just published today. Tried to simplify it as much as I could while covering all the topics and making it entertaining. Pretty relevant topic and very important to understand for anyone trying to form an opinion on SPOT. https://sleepwell.substack.com/p/music-streaming-royalties-101 Happy to hear any feedback!

Wrote my thoughts about Spotify's acquisition of Locker Room here https://sleepwell.substack.com/p/spotifys-third-act-from-the-locker Any thoughts or comments welcomed

Huge deal, not surprisingly. Let's see how the details look like but I suspect they are getting good value from this knowing mgmt and guessing GE is a quasi-forced seller. "GE Nears Deal to Combine Aircraft-Leasing Unit With AerCap" https://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-nears-deal-to-combine-aircraft-leasing-unit-with-aercap-11615157471?mod=e2tw

pretty sure he's referring to Spotify's use of Google cloud services. impressive. I listened to 197 new artists and 863 artists in whole. My time listened actually decreased by 33% from 2019. Love the wrapped-up segment and of course the company that makes it all possible.... Google... Can you elaborate on Google's role?

Matthew Ball's long-form essay a history and the future of Audio, worth a read. Some very interesting comparisons to other mediums like TV, video games and even texting. https://www.matthewball.vc/all/audiotech

Q2 out: https://ir.charter.com/static-files/8402d27e-e891-41ce-ba11-b8fd55f79709 up nicely pre-market, guessing this is why: Residential net adds: Internet 842K vs Cons. 431K Video 102K vs Cons.(151K) Voice 38K vs Cons. (191K)

I'm also a bit confused and would appreciate it if you would expand more on this, as typically users who "love" Spotify and listen to a lot of music, tend to be pretty sticky, especially if they have been around for a while. This comes from building out your personal catalog of playlists, songs, albums and artists over the years and the fact that the platform gets to know you extremely well over time and all that data becomes an advantage for finding new music (a role traditionally performed by radio which is now the equivalent of being featured in a Spotify playlist - this hasn't been monetized and radio is a 25+B industry) and giving you exactly what you want to listen to (the tailored playlists like Discovery weekly, Daily mixes etc.). On top of that you have a very intuitive and superior UX, much better curated playlists, social effects from having friend's & artist playlists and listening habits, network effects from other people (and artists) sharing songs in social media and messaging etc (imagine being 18 years old and sending an Amazon music playlist to your crush :|). And finally the price point is really low for all the value you receive as a user, especially if you're consuming an hour of content a day (which is the average). Of course all of this matters a lot IF you listen to a decent amount of music, if you're a very casual listener you might not care and just go for a the cheaper version.

"We interviewed the Former CEO of EMI Group, one of the four largest record labels globally and now owned by Sony, on the structural changes in the music industry and Spotify's opportunities." https://blog.inpractise.com/spotify-vs-record-labels/

Not a podcast, but related to podcasts some big news today...spotify signs Joe Rogan for exclusive podcasts and videos in spotify (no more youtube and apple...) https://newsroom.spotify.com/2020-05-19/the-joe-rogan-experience-launches-exclusive-partnership-with-spotify/ https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/19/21263927/joe-rogan-spotify-experience-exclusive-content-episodes-youtube

Up almost 11% today, and rightfully so. Huge move today with signing Joe Rogan exclusively for Spotify INCLUDING videos...(a first for spotify) Pretty insane https://newsroom.spotify.com/2020-05-19/the-joe-rogan-experience-launches-exclusive-partnership-with-spotify/ https://www.theverge.com/2020/5/19/21263927/joe-rogan-spotify-experience-exclusive-content-episodes-youtube

This probably helps: "The average age of our owned fleet as of March 31, 2020 was 6.2 years (2.5 years for new technology aircraft, 11.5 years for current technology aircraft) and the average remaining contracted lease term was 7.5 years." Most carriers are planning to retire their older fleets (20 years or so) in order to reduce capacity. Press release: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_3fcd3cb7275da6539d73dba6105b238a/aercap/db/488/4057/file/Q1+2020+AerCap+Holdings+N.V.+Earnings+Presentation+FINAL.pdf Presentation: https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_3fcd3cb7275da6539d73dba6105b238a/aercap/db/488/4057/file/Q1+2020+AerCap+Holdings+N.V.+Earnings+Presentation+FINAL.pdf will be an interesting call that's for sure

my guess is it's related to GE reporting this morning and GECAS numbers not being as bad as people had feared... press release https://www.ge.com/investor-relations/sites/default/files/ge_webcast_pressrelease_04292020.pdf presentation (slide 15) https://www.ge.com/investor-relations/sites/default/files/ge_webcast_presentation_04292020.pdf From 10-Q: https://www.ge.com/investor-relations/sites/default/files/ge_webcast_10Q_04292020.pdf At GE Capital, the primary effect of COVID-19 pertains to its GECAS business. The COVID-19 outbreak has led to worldwide reduction of flight schedules and it is difficult to predict its longer-term impact. The resulting pressure on its airline customers had led to GECAS preparing for redeployments and repossessions, as well as lease modifications in some cases, while continuing to respond to customer requests for short-term rent deferrals. Continued deterioration in cash flow projections, including current rents, downtime, release rates and residual assumptions could result in further impairments in the operating lease portfolio. Additionally, the COVID-19 market-related volatility resulted in higher credit spreads on the investment securities held by our run-off insurance business, which resulted in marks and impairments taken in the first quarter. As of March 31, 2020, GECAS owned 986 fixed-wing aircraft, of which five with a book value of $0.1 billion were available to lease to customers (aircraft on the ground). We test recoverability of each fixed-wing aircraft in our operating lease portfolio at least annually. Additionally, we perform quarterly evaluations in circumstances such as when assets are re-leased or current lease terms have changed. During the three months ended March 31, 2020 and 2019, GECAS recognized pre-tax impairments of $45 million and $3 million, respectively, in its operating lease fixed-wing aircraft. The increase in pre-tax impairments was driven by declining cash flow projections for aircraft as a result of COVID-19 and related market impacts. As of March 31, 2020, GECAS has received deferral requests (primarily short term in nature) from approximately 75% of its airline customers operating in approximately 64 countries and expects to continue to receive requests for rent deferrals and/or lease restructures from its global airline customers as a result of COVID-19 and related market impacts. An extended disruption of regional or international travel could result in an increase in these types of requests in future periods, which could result in an increase to the trade receivable balance. As GECAS evaluates future lease restructures, there is a risk of lease modifications that could have a material adverse effect on GECAS operations, financial position and cash flows. Additionally, the portfolio utilization in our helicopter business was 86% as of March 31, 2020.

Q1 out. "Despite the global uncertainty around COVID-19 in Q1, our business met or exceeded our forecast for all major metrics. For Q2 and the remainder of the year, our outlook for most of our key performance indicators has remained unchanged with the exception of revenue where a slowdown in advertising and significant changes in currency rates are having an impact." "Q1 2020 was the third consecutive quarter of year on year growth above 30%. In all four of our regions, MAU grew faster in Q1 2020 than it did Q1 2019. Growth in North America accelerated for the 2nd straight quarter led by outperformance in the US, as did growth in our largest region, Europe. Our Latin America and Rest of World regions continue to see the fastest growth, with those segments growing 36% and 65% Y/Y, respectively." https://s22.q4cdn.com/540910603/files/doc_financials/2020/q1/Shareholder-Letter-Q1-2020-Final.pdf

I expect all operating segments to keep chugging along, moving and storage are essential businesses and during downturns a lot of people are forced to move and downsize their homes, which benefits U-haul as the low-cost moving option and offering self-storage for your extra stuff. That's not to say revenue will grow, but I don't think it's gonna fall substantially either. Agree they may pullback on some CapEx and RE investments which may end up giving them positive FCF this year. Here's some info on what they're doing https://www.uhaul.com/Announcement/?utm_campaign=prnewswire&utm_source=pressrelease&utm_medium=scanandgo