ValueMaven

Started a very small position this AM after watching this name for nearly a decade. The UK takeover battle with Parker has me very interested. This is a sizable deal if they can get it done. https://www.ft.com/content/c7c81016-61c4-4f65-b33b-e16d3b427297

Bet against Malone at your own discretion. Several catalysts here - one of which is the 80% threshold which they will hit in either 4Q21, or 1Q22 - in which case Liberty can start aggressively buying back shares - with zero tax leak (same tax filing). Also SIRI current guidance is likely conservative - but that might be priced in already. Capital allocation (buybacks at parent or holdco), and tax status will be key here. Will be interesting to follow this regardless.

wow - couldn't disagree more. Look at the margins. Look at results during and through the covid quarters. Look at the subscriber base. Look at how they are reducing the share-count. Malone and Maffei have recently called SIRI a 'great business'. You need to understand the benefits of talk radio, and the value SIRI offers vs. the cost. I think more than the P transaction, was the LiveNation deal they did...which is now up a lot - but the market isnt given them credit for it at all. Next few quarters will be interesting.

The more I study the Sirius situation, the more the tracking stock intrigues me. Earnings in late July will be very, very interesting.

great find! Thank you

I'm glad the stock stopped running higher actually.

Agreed. Seems like we are very close to an inflection point here actually.

Texas grid operator urges electricity conservation as many power generators are unexpectedly offline and temperatures rise https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/14/texas-power-grid-conserve-ercot/

Keeping this extremely high-level. It seems to me that LSXMK is trading at an usually wide-discount to NAV, despite several possible catalysts over the coming quarters. Discount to NAV currently stands at ~35% to NAV. You have small stakes in the Braves, Formula One, iHeart, and a sizable position in Live Nation. The jewel however is the tracking unit of Sirius which has gone from 45% of O/S from GFC in 2009 to ~77% today. You have Sirius actively buying back stock, as well as Liberty buying back the tracker at a deep discount. Liberty which owns ~77% of Sirius will likely acquire ~80% of the company through natural buybacks over the next several quarters. In fact earlier this year, both companies filed with the SEC to potentially have a consolidated tax forum. Basically over the coming quarters it is likely that Liberty will acquire all of Sirius and this arb to NAV will collapse. There are many theories and possible outcomes, but I'll save this for the Q&A below. Apologies as I know a lot has been written about Liberty series before - but I didnt find a separate thread on the Sirius tracker. Here is Maffefi talking about buying back the discount at deep discount

very interesting Oaktree deal https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-11/bob-marley-music-owner-attracts-375-million-investment-from-oaktree?srnd=premium

Bought LSXMK. 35% discount to underlying - which is wider then normal. 77% ownership of SIRI now, and closing in on 80%.

+1 Helps when management owns 10%+ of the company

I dont see BAMR trading to a premium to BAM right now. It's a shell tracker. The reason BIPC and BEPC trade at sizable premiums is 1) The C-Corps allow retail investors to own these businesses, or economic stakes without the K1 filing requirement that the LPs have here in the states and 2) C-Corps can be bought by Index/passive funds. Since BAMR and BAM are both C-Corps, all you are doing is acquiring optionality on the reinsurance business (I wont be selling and plan on owning BAMR for a long time). Given the valuation spreads between BIP/BIPC and BEP/BEPC - I could see in the future that BAM converts all LP's into C-Corps to simplify the structure + get higher market valuations. Kinder Morgan did this back in 2014, and so have the large Private Equity firms.

wow I had NO idea Trisura is up 700% since its spinout 5 years ago!!!

1) It's not a Unit (not an LP, but a C-Corp) 2) It is paired to BAM, thus economically the same for now. It's a special dividend basically for now... 3) At some point, BAMR will be unpaired from BAM, and will trade on its own fundamentals 4) BAMR is basically a reinsurance shell, until BAM puts all of their reinsurance business, or mergers with AEL or something of the sort