Gregmal

Granted, some of this may be due to the illiquidity, but isn't it funny how little you need to go right in order to make money when buying at such a substantial discount to FV?

Great investment thesis, Greg. [And from here, please don't expect me to participate in this topic.] Well Greg is wrong there but the feeling he's basing the decision on is real. What he should do (if he really wants to put "who knows?" to rest) is do what he does when he decides to invest in a stock. He wrote on this board he looks at stocks and looks for a reason that makes it uninvestable so he can stop looking at it and move to the next company. That is easy to do here too (easier than with stocks, because the crap is so much more on the surface). Just look for insurmountable problems. Examples: Problems with the initial distribution (pre-mining or the founders continue to assign part of the mining reward to themselves for "development"). Problems with being centralized rather than distributed (what is the added value of a centralized crypto, either by organization or technically?) Is it even a cryptocurrency? Is there mining? Is it a token? is it a "stable coin" (aka unprotected, non-yielding loan to a not trustable 3rd party) Do the idea behind it, and the differences with Bitcoin make any sort of logical sense? Just those 4 questions will eliminate nearly all of them. Of course no-one has to do this, but saying it's unknowable is like saying it's unknowable which stocks are investable and which are not. Simply untrue (unless you take the statement literally: you can rarely know anything ever with absolute certainty). This is all true, and useful, but it doesnt totally provide answers to the bigger picture. There are myriad "issues". But all this has been around and known to various degrees, forever; ie its in the market. And yet here we are. Its the same kind of structural setup, and ideological "you think you know, but it just aint so" as we saw with all the super duper smart guys and their Excel spreadsheet Tesla short's at $30 per share. And $50. And $100...and so on. I was briefly one of them until I had an awakening and decided to step to the sidelines, acknowledging I just didn't know anything useful regarding the investment and what I thought I knew, consistently seemed to put me on the wrong side of the trade. If something has now, for a multi year period(or longer) consistently outstripped "consensus" and expectation, at the least it is prudent to respect it. If you sit there and watch something go from $100 to $10,000, I dont know, I think its fair to ask oneself, why? And how wasn't I able to take advantage of it? One of the most hilarious things I think this bull market has revealed, is how little the big, smart, pompous Wall Street guys really know in the grand scheme of things. They derided, and sneered at, and shorted AMZN from inception, to like $1500 a share. And now, you know, as it starts to get "toppy" and is worth like $1T USD, all of a sudden they find it a consensus long and even a "value play" L-O-fuckin-L. So sometimes, it pays to realize where you are in this vicious cycle, see if where you've been has made sense(and money) and if necessary, adjust or step away. At least is seems, and has worked, for me. A lot of times, Ive found that your risk/reward skew is significantly better if you are able to get comfortable allowing there to be a few ?, rather than impulsively "needing" to know EVERYTHING.

One final thought as I wind down a 12 hour day of reading earnings call transcripts and evaluating trade ideas for the upcoming week and pivot to sushi and a bottle of wine over TV with the wife(even though my mind likely still stays consumed with business and investing thought)... Re: the "who knows comment"... this is the only honest answer there is. You will never find a multi bagger unless some, if not many of the questions relating to the idea are honestly answered with something to the extent of "who really knows" or "no one knows"... when "everybody knows", you get Treasuries and CDs. On crypto and blockchain, I think it would be foolish for anyone, not to want to educate themselves on the subject. That does not mean or endorse investing in it, but simply making an effort to be open minded and understand it. There were a lot of people who wrote off a lot of disruptive ideas in their early stages. This may be one, it may not be, but personally, I find it inexcusable to potentially miss a major investment theme and possibly world changing shift, by being closed minded or pigheaded(or lazy). An investor should always at least seek to have background information on any subject, and try to answer the questions of who's making money, how are they making money, and why are they making money. And then not forget one can make money on multiple sides of the trade, not just one. Food for thought.

OK, Greg. Each to their own way. Personally, I'm investing for the long term, where the underlying earnings and cash flow generates the future earnings and capital allocation opportunities. So you're long TSLA? (kidding) Greg, What is it with you? -Please tell us something about what you're really up to .. - instead of all those [now hundreds of posts here on CoBF] about your <100 bps trades. - Please post your thoughts in the relevant investment ideas topics. -Personally, I don't see your posts there . [And please give me a break with regard to crypto.] I wasn't under the impression membership came with such obligations. Posting shares two primary purposes; engaging in thought provoking+pencil sharpening discussion regarding investment related content; and entertainment. Its a hobby that has tangential benefits with regard to understanding various market factors, including, what makes a market. I try to share with two things in mind, contribute to a community(as a member of any community should) and being transparent with what I am doing and why I am doing it(pretty much nobody in the financial industry is, and even less are on the internet). I delve into a third at times, which is debate(the purpose of which admittedly has little value). I dont know whats wrong with 100 basis point positions. In fact, a quick glance at any responsibly managed portfolio would likely disclose the same. Here's a link to the hero's investment portfolio, of which 80% in sub 1%... https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK I have been pretty clear how I trade and allocate. That I have 60%+ in my top 5 ideas and trade with a portion of the portfolio as it is essentially free money and if managed appropriately probably entails less risk than good old buy and hold. That it has been proven, time and again that owning assets, of pretty much any variety(within certain frameworks) will do better than holding cash. That the stock market has a natural inclination to go up in time. That theres certain scenarios and market conditions where an idiot could make money, in which case its an almost certainty that a sophisticated investor with proper risk management techniques can as well. I can and have gotten into extensive analytical discussion and debate on various names and topics, but am under no obligation to. Given how little many else here contribute, why is the burden of weight all on me, John? Would you prefer if I just sit around and moonwalk my thesis drift on why BRK is currently a meddling investment? Or spend days and nights trying to convince myself and others that Prem is about to get hot now and that he's due? Nah...I like it better being on the right side of things, and if that means calling Buffets conflicts and hypocritical behavior for what it is, or seeing that Watsa has lost his way, so be it. If it means buying things that are currently working while others sit on both their hands and their huge piles of cash.. too chicken shit scared to even make a sub 100 basis point investment...so be it. I like making money. Not everything I buy is for everyone, thats fine. My BTC can sit there with my Gretzky OPC's... I'm good. Funny enough both have to date, and now spanning multiple if not many years, been noteworthy performers...which I understand, in value investor world, must be scorned, for it is part of the Bible for many a folk to look down ones nose if money is not made and lost within the framework of the Intelligent Investor....

OK, Greg. Each to their own way. Personally, I'm investing for the long term, where the underlying earnings and cash flow generates the future earnings and capital allocation opportunities. So you're long TSLA? (kidding)

Great investment thesis, Greg. [And from here, please don't expect me to participate in this topic.] Agreed; one of the most compelling you'll ever hear! Sometimes I prefer to live a little adventurously. Some folks find $20 in their jacket pocket(metaphorically) and think they need to protect it, nurture it, and carefully compound it(probably at mid single digit rates). I, sometimes just say what the ef, its not changing my life either way. After all, my BTC, whether now or in the future, will provide me more to show for my money than that vacation one took last year, or that fancy restaurant you went to last week, or the sports car you bought in your 40's to solve the mid life crisis...its all relative. I try not to take everything so seriously.

I think its important to note that payment systems have and continually evolve in ways that are typically underestimated. Further, there is definitely a moving risk of government overreach. All the evidence you need to see is right there with how swiftly, and desperately they've moved to kill Facebook's Libra project. They hate this because they cant control it. At this point it seems unstoppable. The big question to me is "why Bitcoin" vs any other crypto, and is being the first mover a valid answer to "why Bitcoin". Really, who knows? I have a small % of personal money in BTC. I would in no way ever recommend this professionally or buy it with other people's money, but as a personal investment, I look at it as something as simple as "I can afford to" and just leave it at that. Its not a "portfolio move" and its not a trading strategy. I threw spare change on a monthly basis for like two years in my late twenties(several years ago now) at it and if I never see it again, I wouldn't even notice, and if it goes bananas, well thats what we play the game for and what investing is all about.

exited MPC

Added a little bit of ILMN after hours at 298. If the PACB scenario has taught anything, its how dominant ILMN is in that space. And its a beautiful space at that!

Yea, kinda odd they'd rather keep a quasi competitor on life support, in the game just for show. Thats governments for you. Oh well. Cant win them all.

Closing PTON puts

Same here which is why its uninvestable for me(outside of the mostly macro trade I explained earlier in the thread with some severely OTM puts). I made money long in the beginning, gave it back and then a bit shorting later on, and have awhile ago come to the realization that I am not capable of sizing up this company's place in the market.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3508791-tesla-plus-12-percent-surprise-profit Big earnings. Credit to Dalal. As the saying goes. Fuck the crowds...

Buried in the just released 10Q "On October 23, 2019, the Company announced its intention to sell or contribute 20 of its single-tenant net least income properties to a newly formed independent single-tenant net lease real estate investment trust (“REIT”), Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (“Alpine” or “PINE”). The Company has sponsored Alpine prior to its planned initial public offering (the “PINE IPO”). Alpine was formed by CTO as a single-tenant net lease REIT and its IPO is intended to raise the necessary capital to acquire 15 of the 20 assets for approximately $125.9 million in cash and as part of Alpine’s formation the Company will contribute 5 of the income properties in exchange for approximately 1.2 million units in Alpine’s operating partnership (“OP Units”), with an estimated value of approximately $24.5 million based on the current expected mid-point of the price range of the PINE IPO. CTO intends to invest $7.5 million in the common stock in PINE through a private placement concurrent with the PINE IPO. Following completion of the PINE IPO and related formation transactions, CTO expects to own approximately 17.5% of PINE based on the Company’s aggregate ownership of OP Units, approximately 13.4%, and the PINE shares, approximately 4.1%, purchased in the private placement. A wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company will serve as external manager of PINE subject to a management agreement that provides for an annual base management fee equal to 1.5% of the total equity of PINE and with the opportunity to earn an incentive fee that is based on exceeding a set total return for PINE’s shareholders." http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20191023/ANZ2D22CZ222626Z2V2322Z28M3MTM2HZ2B2/

It’s always worrisome, if the guy running the numbers decides it’s not worth it. I mean, it also was kind of a red flag that the company lost 99.8% of its value in the past few years, but that's not positive either... LOL. You cant have a "if its "xyz", never/always invest" type of rules when investing, but you have to have parameters. That said, a ski slope type chart like this is as close to a "write it off immediately" for me as you can get.

Because the IV is massive right now since we are a week(less than) away from lockup expiration. For instance the $60 Jan 21s are now $10. If you spare some downside, you can probably re enter the trade as a straight short(or even possibly through options) with a much lower negative carry hurdle. TLRY was 450% heading into lockup and trading in the $80s. Several months later you could short it outright in the $60 for a tiny fraction of that cost. Once all those lockup shares start coming to market, the cost to borrow comes down. From there the downward spiral is all but locked in, and then valuation typically becomes the primary driver of value.

I bought some Jan 2021's ranging from $50-$100 strikes. Its basically a 2-3 month trade idea. I think the lockup easily takes 25% off the share price. The thinking goes, yea... straight short you're paying 175% neg borrow which can be yanked at any time and the rate can and likely will go up. Shorter dated puts are insanely expensive and a sucker bet. 2021s that are out of the money that far are only pricing in time value. Ive got like 16 months til expiration and if 2-3 expire, there s still a whole lot of time value likely for those options which still have a good chunk of value whether the stock goes up, down, or sideways. But if I'm right, and we get a 20-30% or greater move down on lockup expiring(which really isn't much of a stretch given how some of these things trade, let alone if you follow what TLRY did)....we eat well. Not all of them work out as planned, but this was pretty freaking easy. There's still likely a bit of downside, but the IV and derivative effects of that are probably peaking, so it's time to close this out. I'd again encourage those interested to look at TLRY chart to see where this ends up 3, 6, 12 months from now.

Covered OPK short.

DIS

Bro, its Howard Hughes, of course they gotta have planes! More as this sets in, two things here stand out as questions and observations... 1) Cost cutting and noncore asset sales(such as toys like the Gulfstream) indicate there s been a lot of unnecessary spending going on. I haven't followed this super close, but Im surprised they had this much waste to purge from the system. Especially given the shareholder base. But I guess where there is a lot of value, theres people realizing it, in one form or another. 2) This thing is supposed to be gushing value, from all over. So kind of incorporating the above, its surprising that after running a process this is all they are able to do.~$2B in asset sales and some cost cutting against $9B or so EV is nice, but definitely not screaming theres so much value here they dont know what to do with it all(I suppose this is why we got the selloff). A management shakeup also kind of implies a greater degree of uncertainty around what they'd previously been doing. I did not seem to think this was a concern. At the least, it didn't really seem to ever come up when talking with people about this name. Lastly, I love share buybacks, but given all the development and cash intensive activities here, question whether its the right use of capital at this point. The assets are too much of an hodgepodge to be an easy sell. In a way I am not surprised that this process ended up a bit of a dud (hence sold into the pop after the news broke), but at $100 and change, I decided to buy back some shares. Looks like they had one only one potential buyer after the DD and this after contacting 35 different buyers, if this account is correct. https://twitter.com/coredentaldds/status/1186391149000511495?s=21 Thanks. "multi decade opportunity"...thats a pretty long horizon lol. Its still a little odd they didn't find any takers for at least some of their regional assets though. I always thought these to be some pretty high quality and desirable pieces of "hodgepodge". Guess there arent too many true "long term" investors out there, despite pretty much every fund or shop saying so. $10B or so isn't a small purchase, but it's also not really a ton of money in todays M&A world either. Funny to think, but BRK could have swiped this up and not even noticed their cash pile diminish. Given their do nothing approach to investing of late, its hard to justify why they didn't when you really think about it.

Bro, its Howard Hughes, of course they gotta have planes! More as this sets in, two things here stand out as questions and observations... 1) Cost cutting and noncore asset sales(such as toys like the Gulfstream) indicate there s been a lot of unnecessary spending going on. I haven't followed this super close, but Im surprised they had this much waste to purge from the system. Especially given the shareholder base. But I guess where there is a lot of value, theres people realizing it, in one form or another. 2) This thing is supposed to be gushing value, from all over. So kind of incorporating the above, its surprising that after running a process this is all they are able to do.~$2B in asset sales and some cost cutting against $9B or so EV is nice, but definitely not screaming theres so much value here they dont know what to do with it all(I suppose this is why we got the selloff). A management shakeup also kind of implies a greater degree of uncertainty around what they'd previously been doing. I did not seem to think this was a concern. At the least, it didn't really seem to ever come up when talking with people about this name. Lastly, I love share buybacks, but given all the development and cash intensive activities here, question whether its the right use of capital at this point.

The first couple that come to mind were PICO, NYRT and CTO. After that there's a few others that escape me at the moment but with similar stories. Maybe Northstar at some point IIRC. FOR was rather unique but I dont think they really ran a process as much as they got one bid which led to another. It just seems that the public market overestimates the values of these things and the time it takes for things to play out. EDIT: Forgot UCP as well, maybe lumped that with PICO, but that was supposed to go in excess of NAV and went maybe 5-8% below as well. But that also did get sold, whereas Im mainly referencing companies perceived to have high NAVs that then went on the block and didn't end up getting deals done.

Unfortunately, having seen and been apart of enough of these over the years, thats the narrative that is going to take a long time to get rid of. No more mystery about NAV, just a ceiling now quite a bit below what many thought.

Ouch. Talk about a let down. Yes, I expected more. Ackman has lauded Weinreb and Herlitz for years. I guess they weren't on board with his plan. Here's the presentation for today's 5pm call: http://www.snl.com/interactive/newlookandfeel/4265772/Transformation-Plan-Release.pdf @$100 its interesting again, but just like a lot of other public RE, its cheap but so what? Now you have no catalyst and the dreaded "they shopped for a deal and couldn't find something that worked" overhang... will be keeping an eye on this for sure. But damn, theres so much in this market that either falls into the category of really cheap but dead money, or super expensive and risky. Hard to find anything in between.

Ouch. Talk about a let down.