Gregmal

Sounds like your old boss was one of those "MY 6% returns are better than your 20% returns" dudes....must have been fun. At least it was a learning experience.

Yea Im trying to be balanced here because its an interesting mix of good fundamentals, possible euphoria, maybe a long term tailwind thats getting too much credit at the moment, or maybe a company thats paid its dues and is being rewarded...probably a combination of all that. I owned this so many times over the past decade as it was one of the better trading sardines. Buy at 16 or under, sell at 18-20, rinse repeat. Sold the last of my shares around $26 in the fall. Having had some time to reevaluate and also see things unfold, I have decided to cautiously revisit this as more of a real investment than just a trade as it was viewed in the past. It also helps/doesnt help depending upon how I look at it, that this is definitely something I am predisposed to liking. I rebought some in mid 40s and also have been selling puts. I'd like to see it catch and hold a bid because it will in a way validate the story and the market's acceptance of it. If that happens then the super bull case can play out. But only if you have enough eyes and ears paying attention to it. The fear Id imagine for some is another pop and drop like what happened 15 years ago...I think thats off the table. Housing party IMO is just getting started. Second fear is that this was one of the momofad basket stocks that got pumped up on short term excitement and then just slowly deflates back to being viewed as it was prior maybe around $25 or so. Thats what I'm trying to be cautious of right now. I also think there should be some "good/great management" credit given to the valuation. Thats definitely a plus.

I think mainly the issue here is mental. As a RE investor, seeing movement like what this experienced is pretty difficult to internalize and there seems to still be an anchoring to "well this was $18 not long ago and basically for the past decade".... At the same time, I think it may have been back around 2018 or so, I remember talking to folks, maybe even it was here, about how "wow JOE is actually looking really good. Fundamentally they are executing flawlessly"...So???What that worth? Plus the entire shift that took place around Sun Belt RE? Plus all the buybacks and now development? Is fit crazy to attribute a couple billion to those things? If so the current prices arent really all that crazy and like said above, perhaps even cheap. I go with "gut feelings" and stuff like that all the time, but wouldnt this be the place where we need to look at fundamentals?

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210408005892/en/The-St.-Joe-Company-Tallahassee-Memorial-HealthCare-and-the-Florida-State-University-College-of-Medicine-Announce-Their-Intent-to-Develop-a-Health-Care-Campus-in-Panama-City-Beach-Florida Meant to post this earlier. Joementum continues. Part of me is viewing this(the whole JOE boom) with skepticism of it basically being another instance of "this time its different"....but I am also seeing a lot of evidence that this time it is different.

Well there we go. Good stuff. Nothing personal. Just pushing back a bit because I dont like seeing when people who bother to put in the effort here and are transparent(even if contradictory) get shit on by others. SharperDingaan definitely does this and provides a unique insight on various issues and has been a solid contributor over the years, that myself, and others as they've acknowledged...enjoy reading. Perhaps my attempt at pushback lacked context or just came off harsher or more personal than intended. My point was that SD really didnt do anything to you and you singled him out, on an investment you have no ownership or even interest in, for what was IMO no reason, so I can do it to you too. Everyone is capable of contributing in a positive way. Such as your post above this one. Solid all around stuff. All I was trying to say is that there's perhaps more productive ways to go about things. Anyhow, back to PWE or OBE or whatever it is these days...

Shorted a little more ARKG today.

Man! Those are a pretty pitiful bunch of excuses and arguments against being transparent. No one owes anyone anything, but if everyone took the same attitude there probably wouldnt be a purpose at all for much of the investment related discussion on COBF or elsewhere. I think there's other reasons at work there. Ive noticed a lot of people who sell newsletters or are more concerned with accumulating Twitter followers dont like being pinned down to a date and a price for their recommendations. Its why I asked you(you know, since you referred to multi baggers in your critique of SD) to name a few multi bagger picks you're willing to put your name behind, going forward. I didnt think you'd answer. But maybe thats not the case. Who knows? And how do you "only disclose the good ones"....its pretty straight forward. On this date you said you bought ABC. Today its at "X" price. You are either up, or you are down and theres not much else to it. And its immortalized for everyone to see. Which is what SharperDingaan did. And everyone can see for themselves and extrapolate what may or may not have occurred. Its just rich seeing someone getting called out for posting their actionable opinion by someone who purposely doesnt. Its about credibility. Thats all.

Well thank god for you Liberty. Calling people on their claims...what would everyone else do without you being the one to "call people on their claims"...its not like folks can read things on their own! And yea, you know I prefer one sided love fests. with no pushback! Like the PTON, Tesla, SRG, GM, SPG, MDXG threads, just to name a few. Glad you like discussing things with one sentence third party links. And thanks for letting us know you're not buying what I'm selling(whatever you think that is. Its definitely not a blog or newsletter!)... Thats standard for you. In fact I cant recall the last time you let anyone know what you where buying or selling.

IDK, but I can point to a number of high profile homes, land(Mark Hughes BH acreage), sports teams(Steinbrenner bought the Yankees 50 years ago) and other things that have provided an adequate return over a very long period of time. An acre of land in South FL in the 1930s was $10. Can anyone name a public company, let alone many, that you could have bought then and still owned today with something similar to show for it? You have so much more risk and variables owning a business. Not to say it cant work, but its definitely harder IMO. I mean we use Costco as an example...how many people currently and in the past several years refuse to own it because they bitch and moan about valuation and its improbability to produce long term returns? You want to test long term with 15 years from a 38x PE? I'll totally take the other side and wager the Knicks are worth way more than the currently implied $3.5B(or even $5B in you want to use Forbes).

Yea I dont think(again, looked at it for all but 5 minutes) its anything worth investing in, but with momo/thematic investments you dont really look for that stuff anyway. The technical stuff is way more important. As is the narrative. Good business, bad business, whatever, you just need something that has the right dynamics and gives you a reasonable idea of what a worst case downside is...and from there its just about waiting for the market to get giddy about "the prospects" of some legislation or new breakthrough or whatever. Look at CLNE and WPRT during the Obama terms. Best example I can think of is the genetics stuff. Look at the run those have gone on the past several years...all on hype. Most of the could've been had for cash +a few hundred million to the EV not long ago. GILT is another I mentioned that has the whole space theme behind it. Granted, biodiesel and renewables are a pig thats been around the block before, but its good to keep tabs on vehicles that under the right scenarios can really rip. Or so Ive found.

I just gave it a 5 minute glance and I'd say FF is a splendid sardine. Low flat, no debt with big net cash position. Heard of REGI before which seems to be a peer. I'd definitely give it a thumbs up and will probably be keeping an eye on it. Reminds me a bit of something like GILT in Q4 in terms of setup. I like small/micro caps that have a floor and some exposure to popular themes. Great idea!

Anecdotally, my mother, who has been looking to move out of Tampa, FL(to something either in North Florida or the NC/SC/VA area)....refuses to consider any place that doesnt have a Costco within 30 minutes. Costco is a cult. And a good one.

The thing is, businesses may be a reflection to some degree of their future earnings. But assets are not necessarily. What was the PE or FCF yield on the Dallas Cowboys when Jerry Jones bought them, or the NY Yankees when Steinbrenner picked them up? How does that compare to today? To me, it is much easier to forecast safety in the long term, of an asset, vs durability, let alone ability to appreciate, of a business. There will only be one NY Yankees 15-20 years from now. There will be more billionaires. Meanwhile someone can come along and displace Costco, or the government can break up Google or Berkshire. So far, my only level of comfort in predicting long term oriented events, would be with things they cant replace.

My understanding is that the vaccine is not yet know to prevent transmission, rather it simply throws one into the asymptomatic category. I do not know the "science" though. My oldest younger brother, who is an MD(not Jill Biden type PHD, but real white coat wearing PHD) says get the vaccine and figure it out later. My youngest brother who is a grad student in one of the most prestigious Ivy League biomedical/genetic engineering programs in the country, says he'll take care of it the traditional way; at a bar with his friends... to each their own.

Youre also going to need to be vaccinated to go anywhere or to do anything. No, the US government will not "mandate" a passport apparently. But these scumbags will refuse to pass legislation protecting businesses from ambulance chasing lawyers. So that strong arms the private sector into defense mode, which, by default, will be to mandate proof of vaccination. Nice little work around there, but its the same thing and thats where its going. I mean shit, look at Cornell, Rutgers, etc....No one is allowed to take classes without a vaccine starting in Fall '21....

I actually never owned AIRC and generally speaking think poorly of everyone involved; from the crooks running the company to loudmouth Litt. AIV just kind of jumped off the screen though as a classic orphan spin setup. Checked every box down to getting booted from the index and trading under $5. Mid December MF coastal had decent clarity. So it wasnt like I'd be buying a business, just assets that were stupid cheap after everything else had just rallied. So I bought the stub post spin. Turned out releasing the financials and maybe some insider buying ended up being the catalyst that got things done. But it basically played out exactly as one would draw it up. If you're looking for an investment theres better assets and better managers out there than anything in the AIV/AIRC complex.

Hmmmmmm. So you basically would need to show a photo ID to eat or travel.... I'm expecting all major corporations to boycott this nonsense. Otherwise, was debating whether or not to post this. But whatever. Got my 2nd shot last Friday. Around 12 hours after went from normal, to shaky, to 103.7 fever at the peak. Lasted for about 6 hours. Felt less than stellar, but OK the next day, and after 36 hours from getting the shot was back out on my boat fishing at midnight with my friends Bud Light and Marlboro. Strangely, I asked a few friends who got both shots if they had anything similar? They said yeah, just to varying effects...thanks for the heads up dickheads! Although also interesting is that the younger people I knew definitely had side effects at a much greater rate than the 15% or so given to everyone. The older people, seemed to have side effects that were much more moderate. Who knows.

MLB All Star Game coming to Denver. DIA will be busy. Definitely an opportunity for some good exposure for the region.

BABA is the new Verizon it seems.

^^Yup. I generally like to go anywhere from a week to maybe a month or so out, and 15-20% or so out of the money, at least on things I wouldnt mind being put, but yea. Selling puts like that is just playing dealer at the casino. Everyone I know was going crazy trying to figure out how to short or buy puts on GME the past 3 months. Answer was simple. Just sell puts. All day. Money in the bank. I remember getting like $5 per share for some April $20s back in early February. $4 for March $15 puts. Got 45c for some July $4 puts. 10c on the $1 puts. It was beautiful. Best part is when the stock went from $340 to $50 and the puts still lost 50%+ of their value.

Being short the ARKs hedges you against a lot of different things that I currently think make sense to be hedged against. Short super high multiple, covid pumped tech. Short semi concentrated, illiquid positions. Short things that will get clocked if rates rise. Short things with excessive SBC. Short their "scale" problem. Short retail euphoria. I think with ARKG you've got all of that, plus some. Its an "exciting" idea/concept, but whereas a year or two ago no one(but maybe me) gave two hoots about most of these genetic themed investments, now everyone and their mother have bid them up and the companies are in ATM mode. A few years back when I started the CRISPR thread, you could have bought CRSP, EDIT, NTLA combined for under $5B. The EV was maybe half that. You could've added BEAM for just another $1B. Didnt make sense. So theres a lot of that kind of stuff in there. When I short/hedge I try to look for things that give me as many different ways to win as possible and these check so many different boxes.

So...lotta people want to know...whats a Publix worth? Yea I know. The NYC centric investment world doesnt really appreciate the Lakeland based beast...its OK, most Southern folks dont know about Tim Hortons. And likely none of you all know about Bucee's... Quick lazy primer https://www.bouldergroup.com/blog/net-lease-publix/ What about any sales? I am sure the Publix asset can be carved out and sold, but typically the whole strip is easier to comp. Here's a recent one. https://shoppingcenterbusiness.com/jll-arranges-26-3-million-sale-of-publix-anchored-shopping-center-in-metro-orlando/ $214 sq/ft for 82% leased. PAC's core New Market portfolio owns 48 shopping centers with a ~96% occupancy rate. 25 are anchored by Publix. The rest are Kroger, Harris Teeter, Fresh Market, etc types. 4 properties are below 90%, with the lowest being 83%. We dont need to talk about rent collection rates...this isnt New York or California here. How in the money are some of these? For instance, the company acquired its Tampa Publix shopping center in 2014 for $180 sq/ft. They bought the Polo Grounds at West Palm for a mere $154 sq/ft in 2019. Both are currently 100% leased. How bout some 95% leased centers with real tenants as comps? https://shoppingcenterbusiness.com/rothenberg-rosenfield-acquires-whole-foods-anchored-shopping-center-in-savannah-for-24-7-million/ $384 a sq/ft You've got a series of Publix anchored comps in there Carolinas in the $230 range, and Atlanta and Savanagh based grocery anchors have been selling in the $200s with crap tenants such as small time nail salons and HR Blocks. Further upside can be seen in the company's 1.2M sq/ft redevelopment pipeline, which was purchased generally around the $130 sq/ft range. There are 6 properties with the majority sporting 70-80% or so occupancy rates. But we dont really need to use these numbers at all. Just put the whole portfolio at a 6.5-7 cap/$185 sq/ft mark and we get to $20 per share on the NAV anyway! To me, at this point, this is a $30 share with some execution and maybe 18 months of time. If management simply isnt retarded, its worth $20. If management happens to be retarded/crooked, well, IDK then. Good margin of safety IMO though. Further wrinkle, which I will add to this in time, is Publix's expansion plans, plus their stealth RE arm, which is focused on buying out company anchored shopping centers. Such as stuff like this: https://www.connectcre.com/florida/cushwake-arranges-70m-sale-of-publix-anchored-retail-center-in-doral/ EDIT: added info.

Good topic. Dont imagine its gonna be too popular here but this is probably, at least in my experience, the easiest way to make absurd amounts of money short term. Why this happens, is because you can effectively bet on news=alpha. The theme is the backdrop, but when you catch the right ones, you just need to be directionally correct, and of course be positioned with the right vehicle. Ive discussed the yo-yo effect before...here its big. Find the popular theme, pick the instrument of your choice, and then ride the wave. When you study the underpinnings of major disruptive or alpha generating investments, the meat of the returns tend to be overlooked while they are happening by traditional fundamental oriented investors. Its basically momentum trading with a twist. Find something thats working, and stick with it until it doesnt work anymore. Try to have a value backstop. As you mentioned above, rising rates, inflation, housing, covid fad reversals...good place to look for this currently.

Cleared remainder of AIV.

Immerse yourself in the markets you want to learn about. Track whats for sale, what sold, etc. Call brokers and shoot the shit. Read the reports put together by the big guys. Learn what drives pricing; its different for each area but common threads exist. Stuff like the below attachment is easily available. CWRetail.pdf