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Gregmal

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Everything posted by Gregmal

  1. Looks like a small float with no options(at a very brief glance). That said, the ATM offering is likely to put somewhat of a lid on this. Doing a 15M offering with a 30M+ valuation is huge. Additionally, ATM means these will be dumped directly into the market, rather than placed.
  2. LOL California is a great example of what will happen if we let the liberals run rampant. What a disaster. Best part is when they "threaten" to secede! Please, leave. Although the Democrats would never let that happen because they'd lose like 25% of their base.
  3. Given the outcome here appears to be kind of binary(either a wipeout or a big gain), this to me seems like an options play. I've been looking at a very small lottery ticket position in the 2020 2's, 3's, and 4's.
  4. Where the 100K came from is important IMO simply because if 95K is inherited and 5K a year is one's realistic savings ability for the near-medium future, your goal should be more so consistent and stable compounding of the principal. If, such as seems to be your case, you have a great job and live a frugal lifestyle, and you're spitting off 25K+ per year of investable cash with the expectation to do even better every year, then you should definitely be much more aggressive during your early years. Look to hit home runs, or take on moderate leverage(the latter being my preferred way of doing it). As far as real estate investing, again just speaking personally; I have always had an interest and a background in this stuff. So just naturally you know the areas you frequent/live. If you've been there a while, you probably have a decent network. I know contractors, real estate agents, business owners, lawyers, clerks at town hall, HOA boards, etc where I live. So you utilize these resources, along with checking the Zillow/Trulia listings, attending open houses, even just driving around and seeing what's going on where. It sounds like a lot but after awhile it because second nature. Also, look for areas you'd want to live if you made half of what you do. Something I've always liked is looking for lowest level entry into highly desirable areas. Also, perimeter locations on the outskirts of the trendy areas. Never buy raw land, never buy the nicest house on the block. Kind of a rule of thumb I have is to only buy stuff that I'd consider living in at some point(past or present) in my life. Put yourself in the shoes of others. Look for areas with good school systems that have a respected police force and reputation for safety. If you own properties near where you life, managing them is also really easy. Property managers typically want 10%, which if you're carrying a mortgage is basically your profit for the first 1/3 of the loan. You'll also learn many of the rules that apply to investing in stocks also applies to real estate. You might like that property in the bad area because it's cheap, and projects to have a fat cash flow, but you'll kick yourself when you have a deadbeat tenant that destroys the place, or doesn't pay rent, or forces you to waste thousands in legal fees. Buy quality and have patience. That's why I suggested if you currently rent, find something you are cool living in for the transition period. This way you can thoroughly vet a prospective tenant and get one that will work. If you play you cards right and do a 15 year mortgage, you could put down 3%, live there for a year until you can find a quality tenant for a 3-5 year lease, and that right there knocks out 25-40% of your mortgage.
  5. actually a minus $33 billion of cash in the last three years. They just continue to do the things that the activists tried to stop them from doing. The problem is they might be right this time around. However, they deserve all the criticisms they get and could have delivered unbelievable returns in last 5 years rather than hopeful of those same returns in the future. Exactly. It's awful and they refuse to do anything other than what they want to do. Barra and Co should be fired and the board replaced. I don't care if "Einhorn's plan didnt make sense" or whatever the rhetoric here was, what these guys are doing just isn't working and it's screwing the shareholder. I'm just so sick of managements talking about shareholder value when there just isn't any evidence of any. Especially in terms of the only thing that matters; the share price.
  6. If you have any interest in owning real estate, do it now. You are in the perfect spot, and most don't realize it until it's too late. What I mean is that you have great resources for someone your age. Most go buy their primary residence. Once you do, you are f*cked because then any future properties are either labelled as 2nd homes or investment properties, which subject you to the Wall Street money machine scheme. You get nailed with all sorts of additional requests, must put up 15-20% minimum, and, just because, usually pay at least 75 basis points more just bc its not your "primary residence". However if you can rent now, then buy a property you want to own as an investment, but live there for a month or two until you find a quality(with tenants, always choose quality over quickness) tenant on a long term(2+ year) lease, you're golden. Especially if you can swing a 15 year mortgage. You can apply for this loan as a first time homebuyer(not sure if there are still breaks), put down 3.5% or even in some cases nothing, AND get a super low "primary residence" rate. The beauty is that you close on this, find a good tenant, and then still be eligible to buy your next property as a "primary residence" and get all the breaks once again. Otherwise, in regards to your question, I won't tell you what to do. I'll just list what I did as I was in pretty much the exact same spot as you. First, the $100k. Is this earned and saved money, or inherited/gifted money? If you've earned and saved that much by your age, you can be really aggressive with it because you will obviously earn much more over the years and relatively speaking thats not a lot of money. Anyhow, here's what I did. 3 accounts 1 brokerage 2 online savings getting ~1%(now even better as with a Barclays for instance, you're getting 1.9%+ for a savings account.) Brokerage I put 50k and allowed myself to leverage this up to 1.5x as long as I owned at least 80% high quality, low risk ideas Savings 1- I called my real estate account. I put 30k in it and I bought an income property. Years later I did a number of these and as it stands by the time I'm in my 40's the sub $100K I invested in real estate in my 20's should have a face value near a $800K, assuming zero property value appreciation. As long as the mortgage gets paid every month you're golden Savings 2- I kept 25K in cash as a just in case fund. As I continued to earn more I just proportionally funded these accounts. It's more or less a variation of the old school stocks/bonds/real estate equation, with a consideration for the fact that you can be more aggressive when you're young.
  7. Another slap on the wrist. This is why people with money do whatever they feel like. Elon s penalty is basically the same as if the shareholder proposal on seperating chairman/CEO went through. No big deal.
  8. Curious if anyone else follows/owns this. I know real estate plays are big with some investors here. This was always one of those dual class structures that traded at a massive discount cuz it would never be sold. Now apparently it's on the block and nearly doubled. Interesting to see what transpires given it's not every day you see one of those perpetual management discount stories get put up for auction. Ultimately, I don't think this gets sold.
  9. There's only a conflict of interest there if a firm they're responsible for policing is one they'd aspire to work at. I doubt many SEC employees get hired by Tesla. The commission didn't really have a choice. Musk tweeted blatantly obvious securities fraud to 22 million followers. If they did not act swiftly, the integrity of U.S. capital markets would be put at risk. They already tried to settle. Musk backed out: https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sued-by-the-sec-for-securities-fraud-1538079650 benhacker, if the board does intend to remove Musk, what would they say? I believe they'd say exactly what they did: paint a picture of everything being fine while looking for a replacement. Ergo I don't think their statement tells us much. From outside that's conventional wisdom. But it's not how those at the agency work. They know it's a good ole boys club. They know how interconnected everything is. Elon's got friends, Tesla's got IB's and FA's, then you've also got money managers involved. The SEC is 100% motivated to get their settlements while not disrupting things too much. It's more or less politics.
  10. Look at what the bid and ask was for Lee Cooperman and what it got settled for. The SEC is this huge creature that is scary to those on the outside looking in. To those in the business its a joke run by people who ultimately aspire to work for the people they are responsible for policing. It's a massive conflict of interest but one that won't go away until you put some kind of ban in place preventing post SEC employment at SEC regulated firms. I am in the business and I agree that the SEC can be a joke. They still have the toolbox at their disposal. It ebbs end flows with the Administrations. Some want them to me more vigilant some one them to be more lenient. During GW bust times for example it was a complete joke. Nevertheless, they still have to take a scalp every now and then to justify their existence. You know people there would still like to get paid while they polish their resumes to go into private sector. Furthermore, usually when one commits fraud one tries to be at the very least discrete about it. Leon Cooperman did not commit fraud and live tweeted it. You're right, although Elon IMO isn't the scalp they want. A guy like Barry Honig or Phil Frost, definitely is. Musk now that I think of it was actually brilliant in the sense that he's more or less been a sweetheart of both the Trump and Obama administrations. Tell me, how the f*ck does one do that? He's a Houdini.
  11. Look at what the bid and ask was for Lee Cooperman and what it got settled for. The SEC is this huge creature that is scary to those on the outside looking in. To those in the business its a joke run by people who ultimately aspire to work for the people they are responsible for policing. It's a massive conflict of interest but one that won't go away until you put some kind of ban in place preventing post SEC employment at SEC regulated firms.
  12. I think many are overestimating the SEC. Musk won't be kicked out by them. They'll settle on something less. The TSLA Board though, should probably consider this. It's funny, Papa John, got the boot from his own company for, I guess, denouncing racism the wrong way and calling out the NFL. Elon smokes up on TV, fights with random people on social media, calls a dude who just helped save children a pedophile not once, not twice, but three times, only stopping briefly to collect his thoughts and dare the guy to sue him before calling him a pedophile a 4th time, openly admits boredom with the roles of being CEO of a public company, runs other companies during business hours, and purposely tries to influence the company's stock price... he's still there.
  13. I think this has a pretty good shot at going private in the next 12 months. While things are bad, I don't think they are SHLD terrible. Optically it's very cheap. PE could and should run with this. It's always been a store that appeals to the stay at home mom with discretionary spend, and given where the economy currently is, I think this can stay in the green/black long enough for a competent operator to come in and make some changes.
  14. Between this and Phil Frost, kudos to the SEC for finally going after some of the big fish who have regularly done whatever they want.
  15. Pay for it. I have heard they have different rates for different people.
  16. This is an interesting narrative I've heard quite a bit before with Tesla. The question is, do people on the east coast underestimate them because we just dont see them that much, or do the people on the west coast overestimate them because they are so commonplace? Is there also a bit of cultural/lifestyle differences on the east/west coasts that are unique to those areas, or is this simply a case of, "if you build it they will come".
  17. My thoughts have always been that coming of age during the financial crisis would be a blessing. You basically get into things on a generational reset. Housing prices are cheap, employment would start out challenging but be in expansion for for the next 10-20 years, and more importantly, you'd have fresh in your mind the lessons learned by others during the GFC. I never thought it would be an excuse.
  18. A car salesman makes his living selling cars. Is he really supposed to tell you that you can't afford it? That the car is inferior to a competing product? Why are mortgage brokers, real estate agents, etc different. I've spent a lot of time around these types of people. If these are the folks we are relying on the responsibly guide the country, we're screwed... To the point made prior, there are way too many kids that go to college simply to have a social life and avoid starting a career. This I believe is the crux of many of the liberal arts majors. I mean it is known, at least I certainly did, if you want to make decent money, don't be an x,y, or z major. Its part of the stupidity and selfishness that people choose to do so anyway. And spare me the do what makes you happy/ what you are passionate about nonsense. I am passionate about hockey cards. If I decided at 19 to open a sports card and memorabilia business I'd be a moron...
  19. It makes sense that if you have to pay off your $70K student loans you'll have less money for a down payment and will then have to delay home ownership. Tuition was nowhere near this high 20 years ago. I wouldn't even say it's that. It's that the $600 a month loan payment makes it very difficult to get the debt to income ratio where it needs to be. Given that loans don't go away for 15 years or so, that takes you to your mid 30's and if you make $75k a year it eats up about 25% of the room in the borrowing equation.
  20. Yea I think it's really tough to work something with the puts in terms of a purchase. They're just way too expensive. IMO the money is in selling the options, whether it be puts, or calls, or both, especially if you can trade around in the stock and also collect some of the rebate. I believe there are now 2020 options available. Was told the borrow today was near 80% a month. Just incredible. Makes the Volkswagen squeeze look like child's play. This has a $25B valuation on 23M in sales.
  21. With Cox Oil being private it's hard to say (at least for me) how big and how levered they are. Deal size is always relative to the acquirer. Just saying I'd be a bit more careful here. Might still be a good bet but there are some warning signs and for me it's basically impossible to handicap this situation given the lack of information and my ignorance on valuing EGC post-deal-fail. Like RSYS, you want no part of a stand alone EGC IMO. Basically a deepwater SD.
  22. Nah. In the RSYS case there was no news at all - stock just went down after the merger announcement. In this case the filing from September, 10 definitely suggests that there are some problems. If everything was going according to plan Cox Oil would have closed the deal shortly after getting shareholder approval (as was the initial plan). At best there is a delay because lenders want to do some additional due diligence or the paperwork isn't quite ready yet. Worst case Cox wants to bail out or can't get financing at all. RE: RSYS I mean the background. Lots of negativity around the company, perception of dishonesty. Investors getting wiped out. I can't see how Cox can't get financing as this isn't a large deal. Perhaps they have gotten cold feet.
  23. I guess one of the more interesting aspects here is this. If you're getting 30% a month, or even more in some cases, doesn't that incentivize people to hold even further? INcredible stuff here
  24. Yea moved on and kind of forgot about this. This is another situation similar to RSYS. Don't blame the market. I'll have to look closer at this but as of now I have zero insight here.
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