Gregmal

Or maybe the buyer just buy the whole company? Healthcare vertical integrations are in play. Cvs? lol. got lucky on this one! I have 20% of my portfolio on this name.. :) now they have 4.9b cash, which is almost half of their current mktcap. They can pay off 1b in debt, and still have 3.9b left for buy back over 2 years. That's 20% of shares outstanding per year. Wouldn't it be more prudent to look into de-levering a bit more while the share price is elevated? From their latest repurchase announcement the stock is up nearly 30% in a mere couple of months. The current share price is also not very far off prices from a few years ago, before some of these new question marks and regulatory risks entered the picture. Personally, I'd rather see them be more aggressive with the debt pay down and then just use FCF for repurchases while at these levels. Impo, I think it will be mistake to pivot the fair value to historical prices. BAC is up 120% from low and they are still buying back. If the management think the stock is worth a lot more, they shall just buy back regardless what happened in the previous 3 months. Deleveraging is also important, but without HCP the remaining business is very cash flow stable. I agree regarding historical prices. More so just pointing out that going balls to the wall on a buyback at $55 is a little different than doing it around $70. Rather er on the side on caution and maybe limit buybacks to 10% of shares per year until debt is reduced a bit. At $55? Sure take out every share. $70's? Better safe than sorry.

Or maybe the buyer just buy the whole company? Healthcare vertical integrations are in play. Cvs? lol. got lucky on this one! I have 20% of my portfolio on this name.. :) now they have 4.9b cash, which is almost half of their current mktcap. They can pay off 1b in debt, and still have 3.9b left for buy back over 2 years. That's 20% of shares outstanding per year. Wouldn't it be more prudent to look into de-levering a bit more while the share price is elevated? From their latest repurchase announcement the stock is up nearly 30% in a mere couple of months. The current share price is also not very far off prices from a few years ago, before some of these new question marks and regulatory risks entered the picture. Personally, I'd rather see them be more aggressive with the debt pay down and then just use FCF for repurchases while at these levels.

Thanks, and agree. Have seen too many times people overlook big risks simply because a stock is very cheap. DVA to me carries some big ?s but after today appears to be a much cleaner investment. Definitely de-risked quite a bit, but at the same time a little more expensive and predicated on, as you mention, some positive assumptions. IMO it's closer to fairly valued based on what it is "today", but potentially quite cheap if we are correct in some of our year or two out assumptions.

To satisfy the contrarian in me, are there any reasons anybody sees to take profits here? Not that it's wrong, but I've always been skeptical of unanimous bullishness. I am long fwiw.

http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/21678322/forbes-says-new-york-rangers-again-nhl-most-valuable-team-15b Rangers pegged at 1.5B

To me it is the clarity in terms of value and a lot of shareholders realizing that they were hoodwinked. Right now, the valuation is much more certain than ever before. And at worst we're probably looking at a two year window for all of that cash to come in. 72% of remaining land under contract for ~150m. Basically there are only about 2,000 acres of largely prime land left whereas last year there were over 10,000 acres of wildly varying land parcels The fact Wintergreen is only seeking 3 directors which would not constitute a change in control. There has to be a point where crying "he's desperate and wants to sell" becomes trite. They've been doing it for years and he's still here and has only added to his position. The fact that the current Board has refused to buyback stock despite the continued underperformance and profound discount to NAV. This despite making all sorts of claims and insinuations during last year's proxy fight. They pretty clearly did what they had to do to win, and then immediately reverting back to the behavior that got them in trouble to begin with. Much of the shareholder base last year just didn't think giving Winters complete control of the company was worth the risk. There was validity to that. But that certainly didn't mean they were thrilled with management or happy with the board. Quite the opposite. Now they can put a couple Wintergreen directors on the board without fear of a quick sale or the egregious change in control provisions kicking in. One of the biggest tells for me was that one of the first things the current board did following the proxy fight was change managements employment contracts so that in the event that what had just occurred happened again, big golden parachutes would kick in. And to make matters worse they substantially increased the amount of money management would get paid if they chose to quit for the newly revamped "cause".

Round 2 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/23795/000155837017009066/f8-k.htm At this point I think it is a win/win. These guys definitely deserve to be ridiculed for their inaction; especially after the way they conducted themselves during last years proxy. They've done nothing new to narrow the discount to NAV, all but stopped share repurchase activity despite clarity with the land sales and a $81-$91 NAV figure, and more or less been proven wrong regarding all of their fear mongering from the past few years. How long can they cry "it's all his fault, he's desperate"? They've been saying this now for three years. They've taken no responsibility for the poor performance, and made little effort to do anything other than convert this to a REIT while claiming that they haven't made a decision on the REIT conversion. If there is any sort of justice in the world, these guys should face repercussions for all the nonsense they've pulled since 2015.

I've never really had an exact formula and usually just go with my gut instinct. Some companies with this type of voting structure are nearly worthless, others(ie FB) it really doesn't matter.

+1 on USLM. Great all around company and investment

Oddly enough, as someone who's shied away from the stock for reasons relating to it's valuation and fears of it blowing up during a recession, I'd say AMZN. Any economic slowdown would crush most retailers, making AMZN even stronger. MSG is a stock I'd consider unbreakable simply because of the balance sheet and exposure to assets that typically trounce inflation.

No position here, but I think some of the criticism of the business model that people had for something like BOMN would apply here as well. It's just challenging and something one must view as speculative. At least here you guys know Sanjeev is honest and doing his best. Not to mention he has the nuts to address most of you guys on a message board, typically behaviour viewed as taboo in the investment world. Lot's of fund managers are 1) anti social douchebags who have no problem taking(whether it be fees, assets, media attention, or in relation to a place like this, investment ideas) but rarely ever reciprocating. Mr. Parsad seems to be the antithesis of this. 2) no genuine interest in holding investors hands through an investment(again, something Sanjeev does for you guys), and 3) lack the nuts to face criticism on a consistent basis(Imagine Berkowitz owning a website and holding a regularly updated thread on SHLD?) Maybe the project isn't panning out as planned. The investment results havent been good. But there is no reason to hold this investment in any different light or have any different set of expectations than you would with any other highly speculative, high risk high reward venture. Sometimes things just don't work out. At least here everybody had an idea what they were getting into and was provided complete transparency along the way. Much more than you typically get with an investment like this. That doesn't mean heads should roll or the guy running it needs to be vilified. At the end of the day we are all responsible for the investments we make(although admittedly sometimes complaining is necessary and/or fun. I just don't think here it is warranted).

I would have said exactly that 5 years ago (that I only read and never watch TV). But the rest of my family does watch TV, and even I have started watching more than I ever have in my life. I'd say I spend about an equal amount of time watching TV as I do reading for the last year or two, but for the maybe 30 years before that I'd say I averaged less than an hour per week watching TV and at least 10 hours per week reading. Unlike years ago there are actually some good shows to watch now. This is the golden age of television right now. The wife does watch way more television than I do. There are some shows I enjoy, but with the streaming services available, you still don't need to fork over $180 a year to HBO or whatever. Typically, if it's just a show or two that is non-NFLX, we just wait til its concluded for the season and then order say HBO for 1 month and binge the entire 10-12 episodes or whatever so it only costs one month rather than start the subscription and watch one episode a week for 4 months. Movies are easy too. You can now go on EBay and find Bu-Ray copies for under $5 delivered. Youtube also has a great deal of free content, especially sports highlights(bye bye ESPN).

I never really watched much TV to begin with. Don't have the attention span. Much rather read. We got rid of DTV about two years ago and really only have NFLX plus AMZN Prime with a Showtime/HBO/Starz subscription which varies depending on the time on year and the shows on. Total cost is less than $350 a year for everything. Live sport is probably the only thing I miss, but usually I can just go to a bar and watch or even the event itself; something much more engaging than just sitting on a couch.

Yes that is a 5B+ USD valuation at the moment. They did a round of funding in 2014 or so at a 1B valuation. Where expected to IPO in the spring supposedly at around $2-$3B, and closed out the recent HK IPO at the high end of the range, 92x oversubscribed at a $4B valuation. This is for roughly $400m in sales and current losses of about 40m(although the company was profitable before it started foraying into the mainstream laptop market).

Just went public. Valuation is kind of obscene, but this is a really unique company that I think is worth keeping an eye on. Company dominates the "gaming product" biz but is starting to scale out. Very loyal customer base and incredibly high quality products. Backing from some respected firms including Intel and Hong Kong BSD Li Ka-shing. Primary biz sells mice, keyboards, headphones, etc and ultra high end gaming PCs. They just got into mainstream laptops. I knew nothing of who they were but through researching ended up buying one of their laptops and it is hands down the best non-Mac I've ever owned. Versus the Mac it's basically a toss up. Now getting into phones which has not really been a profitable venture for many companies but their products and consumer appeal definitely draw comparisons to Apple. They've also got several platform concepts and have flirted with the whole digital currency thing. Will be interesting to see what they do with their IPO proceeds. The stock and biz at 5B is very rich, but curious if anyone else is familiar with the brand and/or products.

Would have to think Roark/BWLD is a big time positive in terms of implications for CAKE.

The rejection itself wasn't surprising. It probably is just a maneuver designed to bump the price. But nonetheless the arrogance of some of these guys is crazy. QCOM has lingered in the 40's/50's to low $60's through a massive tech bull run. These guys have not really succeeded with anything. Their business plan has shown few positive results, and none where it matters; for shareholders. IMO simply coming out and scoffing at a 40% or so premium to where the stock has lingered and simply dismissing it as "undervaluing the company" without supplying any sort of credible plan on how you(management) can do better(especially in regards to how you can do better when you've had years of opportunity yet havent done jack but now all of a sudden will...) for stockholders is reprehensible. IMO the most useful thing they've tried doing is buying NXP, and even that they can't seem to do right.

In relation to the QCOM?AVGO deal- I was a bit surprised today. How does QCOM reject such an obvious value creating event for it's shareholders when it's done nothing but fall all over itself and destroy shareholder value over the past several years? Especially when the reasoning is that the bid "dramatically undervalues the Company". I've learned over the years that it really doesn't matter how undervalued a company is if the management team is incompetent and unable to unlock this for shareholders. Where do management teams get off making statements like this? QCOM may have been undervalued, but these guys have shown zero ability to do anything about it. Now, an event comes along that unlocks some/most of that value, and these guys all of a sudden think that could/can do better? Unbelievable No position in either FWIW

IMO indexing is always moronic. But IMO most people are in fact morons; at least in terms of their ability to make investment decisions. At best, indexing is just lazy. But most people are also lazy. So maybe it's for the best...

I don't own this but have been following it closely of late thinking the same thing, especially after today. That said, the revised figure has got to be pretty accurate if they felt compelled to again change it. These guys already looks hugely incompetent so I'm sure they would have preferred not guiding down AGAIN. So idk, on an absolute basis, yea its cheap. But is the 20-30%% discount enough at this point to push me to trust these clowns with my money? Probably not. These things can drag out forever. They're now saying 4 years for Worldwide Plaza? Why did they even agree to purchase the other half of this anyway if that was the case? They are idiots.

What a complete shit show. These guys are world class scumbags.

I suppose they could try again... https://techcrunch.com/2015/10/14/amazon-shuts-down-its-hotel-booking-site-amazon-destinations/ Interesting. Was not aware of that.

I've followed these travel cos for a bit, and the value I suppose is there; however I'd like to play devil's advocate here for a minute. These agencies make money on a commission or spread basis. The benefit to the consumer is obviously convenience, and saving money. That's probably the bulk of it. This won't disappear overnight, however as someone already mentioned, if travel agencies are no longer the cheapest, then you are basically left targeting the lazy consumer. Also, I've read people say there are high barriers to entry, but what really keeps Amazon or Facebook from getting into this space? If it's really just about squeezing a profit margin, we've already seen AMZN do this a million times over in other areas. Why wouldn't they be able to do it here? I think it would be incredibly easy for AMZN or FB to leverage their platforms and do direct deals with the airlines/hotels.

Shit guidance it looks like

Cheesecake Factory at Short Hills today 11am about 90% full 11:30 15 minute wait 1pm over an hour wait Granted Short Hills is probably one of the most affluent malls in the country, this is pretty impressive traffic for a mall based restaurant on a Sunday morning/early afternoon. I also noticed they are selling jars of their sauces and dressings. Would not be shocked to see a move following PF Changs into jarred sauces and prepackages food for grocery stores. There would definitely be demand. I've always thought highly of CAKE, but lately I've been paying more attention, and what has become apparent, is that this is a very powerful, premium brand. I also love the balance sheet and how shareholder friendly they seem to be. I'll be looking to initiate a position here soon.