Gregmal

Just wait til the poor people get their $2000 checks! BTC to $40k! That guy Trump who is only out for himself seems to be fighting pretty hard for those losers to get their checks. Even though they hate him. Doesnt make a whole lot of sense. I mean, its not like they can spend them at Mar a Lago.

I do know theres a lot of Asians on this board so perhaps we'd get better color from them. All I'd say is relying on Western folks who have been the subject of all our MSM anti China propaganda is a bad idea if you are truly trying to get a sense of what China is all about, from a perspective of potentially investing there. Its the same shit North Americans do with the Middle East/UAE. For instance, I have a bunch of super wealthy European investors and they go to places like Dubai/Oman/Egypt with the same frequency many Americans go to Las Vegas. An old business partner of mine frequently visited Turkey. Same thing. Now bring that up to most stupid Westerners and the first questions on their mind was "how are you still alive, do you feel safer"...and thats kind of what you get with China too. One of my good friends is a born and raised Brit. Worked his way up from loading trucks on the docks to running the commodity desk at BNP. Did TONS of business in China. And always mentioned how culturally different China is from America. But not in a bad way. They are disciplined. Guys like Chanos see empty buildings and apply a stupid American narrative to it, but the folks in China responsible for these programs are designing infrastructure with a 50 year time line. The overriding loyalty expected from citizens is to the country and improving its standing in the world. Compare that to NA, were everything is short sited, materialistic, lazy, and self centered. Their 5th graders are smarter than most of our high school students... There was a decent documentary, albeit a little promotional, from Stansberry Research put out a few years ago. I'd suggest watching that for a primer. Always be cautious of false narratives.

Royal Salute 21. Easily exceeded relatively high expectations.

So on one end you have folks basically saying the numbers are fake, and on the other, the government of one of the most powerful countries in the world sayings its possibly a monopoly? IMO this is really just a typical mafia style shakedown. A reminder from Xi of who's boss. Jack got a little too cocky and forgot where his bread is buttered. They'll make a point and turn the screws to him a bit, but its not in anyone, especially China's interest to destroy anything.

Merry Christmas all.

Yea I think the opportunity(defined as a reasonable or better skew in terms of risk/reward) is almost gone. Its harder to find for sure. This stuff doesnt last forever so when you see it you need to act. Here it was/is rather no brainer. Sub 5% downside, cut and dry. Many cases 1% or less. All good things do come to an end.

You missed SQFT? j/k

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is probably one of the best stock market related books Ive ever read. Livermore was quite the case study. Fascinating fellow.

Yea there's definitely a bit of predictability especially in terms of pattern recognition to some of these things. One of the main reasons I like the spac trades. Almost every time it goes like this. 1) Run to big name/promoting sponsor (IE Chamath types), 2) deal announcement 3) transfer period between share owners from institutions to retail 4) trend on Twitter/stocktwits 5) to the moon. If you have a bit of a trading sense, its exciting and fun, but its also important to stay near the exit for when the music inevitably stops. I wasnt involved in the market during the tech bubble. But having studied it and just history in general, I never understood the "bubble" comparisons we've been hearing about non stop from many folks over the past decade. However over the past couple months, its basically everything they'd teach in a textbook on the subject. All the red flags are there. They are getting bigger and bigger. Rule in life in to never be the first or last guy at the party... EDIT: grabbed a few BABA today

The life science/biotech SPAC I like simply because thats a favorably viewed sector. LSACU was/is a double before deal close. The thesis is rather simple in that from 10.5/6 you will likely see some bounces up/down on just normal trading activity and on a deal announcement you'll almost certainly see at least $11/12. You dont need home runs here or even great deals. Just volatility and a deal spike. Which is close to guaranteed in this environment. I was talking with someone earlier about the Social Capital spacs, and the 15-20% premiums on those. And realistically, while I'm not a fan, you still kind of have favorable setups because the behavior of the masses has become predictable. Especially if you are a smaller investor, IE transact in sub 5,000 share lots, you'll almost certainly have an exit opportunity, especially if you are quick after hours upon announcement.

I dont actually think that one is too bad. It seems predominantly pre deal announcement, which is low risk. Much different than SPAK. Its basically what I do on my own, but I suppose not everyone has the time to follow all these damn things. And yea, 10.3-4 is the new 10.05-10.10. Got IIIIU IPO last week and already at 10.4. LSAQ, FLACU, are currently two I like. FSRVU just got a 40% bump on deal announcement so I've cut that one down a bit.

I decided on an experiment. Will help with my bubble project. Live like a RH rockstar for a bit. So before heading out to the supermarket to grab dinner, I figured, lets do this. Went to StockTwits. Top trending stock, XL. Lets buy 100 shares. Due diligence? Fuck it. #1 Trending is all the due diligence one needs. If its trending, it must be the shit. Entered market order. Cuz limit order are for pussies. Filled at 31.13. Shut the laptop...didnt want to work too much harder. Got in the car. Peddled around the grocery store acquiring items for tonights stuffed peppers. Headed over next door to the liquor store to get the nights beverages. Drove home. Kicked on the laptops. Sold for $33.17. Definitely a much easier way to make money in the market than all this other bs Ive been doing for years now. Heck, some of my value stocks only do 6% a year.

Been shorting some MSGE puts. Rotated a bunch of FSR warrants into some very OTM GM calls for 2022/23, added a bit more to BKEP, and picked up a starter position in some AAPL puts. Also tacked on a few more shares to ARKG short.

Anyone still looking at stuff like this? Was looking out at the June puts around $100-110 and they look reasonable/inexpensive. Haven't dont anything yet but 30x+ on this probably presents some decent downside should things not go as planned.

Maybe its just me, but the 2020 sketch seems to reflect the hardships that occurred during the 6-7 year stretch between the 2014 sketches.

Just a reminder of what we may be dealing with....all them Form 4s. 34,000 shares a piece annually it seems to oversee a $600M market cap company!

https://fortune.com/2020/12/21/ripple-to-be-sued-by-sec-cryptocurrency-xrp/ Probably why you dont want to pay for XRP if you are buying Ripple shares....

If nothing else hopefully the margin rate becomes a race to 0 as well.

I appreciate the kind words. How great or terrible I am of course depends on who you ask! Joking aside. I think the point being missed is that when something isnt working, a market participant who is looking to make money needs to ask themselves why? Relentlessly. I hate group think and find great value in the other side of the story, even when its contrary to what I think. Its why many times(like TPL thread for instance) people may call it "trolling" or whatever. Who cares what they call it. But I find that knowing the other side of the investment is more useful to me than loving my own thesis. So with this said, the problem you run into with some of these guys, is they have weeks, months, years of data points conveying that something is not working. And outside of just being arrogant, I cant really see any other justification for being so cavalier about it. One of the biggest flaws I routinely find in the "value investor handbook" is that there are plenty of aphorisms and excerpts that repeatedly reinforce bad behaviors and habits. No one says Prem needed to buy Tesla. But if he was honing in on Blackberry, was something like Apple really too far out of his universe? I use Apple because its a direct comp to the observation made by another poster about Buffett, who has fully admitted he doesnt know shit about tech.

Ive liked/followed/owned/mostly traded JOE forever(although not currently holding any). Its certainly a unique company with rocketfuel potential. However I dont think that on a fundamental basis the change in the share price over the past couple months equates to the changes at the company level. They've done everything right for the past half decade. Slowly fortifying the balance sheet. Buying back tons of stock AHEAD of the big catalysts. JVs. But at the end of the day, we've all seen these. Even the best ones take time for the buildout and while there's shovels in the ground, theres always constraints on that end too, even from a permitting and labor perspective as well. So part of this is likely all that execution being rewarded, but I think its safe to say that of lot of it is also just the market doing what its been doing to a lot of stocks. Nothing wrong with that of course. But also important to keep in perspective. Their land will undoubtedly benefit from migration south. But its not as simple as x acres times $25k an acre. The income properties, lets face it, are not exactly investment grade, top tier, long term net lease stuff. But they'll suffice in terms of providing the company cashflow. So all in all I think you've got the right approach. If I had to wager theres still probably more Kerrisdale related shorts in this than Einhorn followers. As I said at the time, what a stupid short.

LOL Poor David. Greenlight should be called Mom and Dad Capital Management. Never held a real job in his life and was funded by family. Even Allied which was his big(other than Lehman) call, was likely a terrible investment from a time and IRR respective. Probably a good part of the reason why he has such trouble adapting and accepting when he is wrong.

Today Florida and NJ....tomorrow? The world!

Yea but in a Robinhood market nice headlines create shareholder value. It'll continue until it doesnt. There's quite a bit of evidence its nearing its crescendo. If you are smart enough to buy real companies during your bubble, or at least raise some capital, you'll at least have a better shot of making it through the unwind. I didnt catch the transaction structure, but it would be stupid if they weren't funding this with stock. Minimal dilution and effectively free money.

^ I haven't really been in touch with what grade school and above kids are doing bc I dont have kids that age. But I was shocked to learn from a tenant that these kids legit are sitting in front of a computer from 8-2 everyday. Personally, I never would have made it through grade school if I had to do the same. Would have lost my mind listening to all that boring stuff with no interaction or break.

LOL. Its only natural a $420M acquisition creates $4B in value. Jokes aside its actually a fairly reasonable and sneaky good acquisition. "Under the Peloton umbrella, Precor plans to make the award-winning Peloton experience accessible to more people through its long-standing relationships with hotels, multifamily residences, and college and corporate campuses. This is pretty much what I was looking at for their upside catalyst a few posts ago. The at home market is small potatoes. Getting into real gyms is where the brand can really take off.