Gregmal

Unfortunately I dont think their jobs will ever really be at risk. I would definitely be concerned if they start dumping their shares in large amounts. Overall IMO I think they've been decent capital allocators, so there is that too. But otherwise, I agree 100%. I would be losing my shit if I was a long term shareholder here, but again, thats everywhere, especially in real estate. You dont deserve $10M a year just for showing up to work at a REIT. Yet everyone at the $3B+ EV level earns at least that.

I think this is reasonable. I dont disagree its a great, status type product/service combo. The problem with the above comps is that CMG can pick your pocket everyday. So can SBUX. LULU can sell you a wardrobe every year or two. AAPL has the device every two years, and the stuff inside the device.TSLA is a bit more complicated, but I can at least point to some add on's, not to mention highly valuable data they can collect from users. What element does PTON possess? They sell a clunky piece of hardware, likely once to somebody. I dont know how many cycles you can get out of replacing a stationary bike. So then whats left is the platform. You can make assumptions about TAM, but it's upper/middle class city folks it seems. Probably some suburb mix too. You are talking households, not people because everyone has access with the subscription. So I think the number is ultimately smaller that what people think and even being generous, this current valuation is a little nuts. A better comp I think is probably Sodastream, which ended up being both a fad, and a decent investment. Sell the hardware and then collect $20 per month on CO2 from the users. Except the public lifecycle for that, was a U. The fad valuation eventually collapsed and the business had to reconcile it's bottom line with the price people would pay for its shares. What's going on now in the markets is very different in that almost every company in certain spaces is being given instant credit for becoming the "idea" of what they aspire to be 5-10 years from now. Its a crazy, but ultimately very fun market. So of course, the best advice is to not get upset over valuations, and just have some fun with it; cautiously of course. But I dont think the new normal is 20x sales for everybody and at some point the chickens come home to roost.

While I'd certainly prefer they didnt issue shares like this, I also dont think SBC amounting to 1-2% is really all that out of the ordinary. While not all that material some of the NEOs have also taken paycuts, Malkin down to $1 for the time being. So again, if I ruled the world, yea, no way this flies. But given the Malkin's are de facto controlling owners of this thing, and given standard industry comp...it's a little bit of a stretch forming that conclusion, no? $4M in equity incentives and SBC compared to previous years(when adjustments are made for share price declines) seems in line. Historically its been about $8-10M total considerations. Which is similar to peers. Do you own this and are just tired of management getting paid for - returns(which would 100% be me if I didnt just get into this post COVID; this has done nothing since going public), or do you have a different angle and/or some kind of short thesis? Thanks in advance.

Not alone at all. I think we are close to seeing peak revenues, likely within the next 12 months. Its definitely a fad product. There is a passionate base but the COVID trade you've seen here just pulled ahead future sales. No different than what occurred with applicable discretionary spend items in other places such as boats and RVs. You have an extraordinary one off situation where people are more or less imprisoned in their homes and even once let out, stuck in their states/regions. Gyms are closed, cities shut down. Constant focus on "health". There isn't anything more you could dream up to pump something like this, but let it play out first. A short without a catalyst usually just ends up being a tax write off. Unless you believe the future holds a place for a $30B exercise bike company that streams Youtube videos...

Dont forget to now mention all the liberal mouth breathers calling Sturgis a "super spreader event"....and here I took them at their word that outside events, like protesting the 1.5 dozen unarmed black people killed by cops last 12 months, were OK!

Trimmed a little more FIZZ and lightened up a hair on some MSGE(no less conviction just a very outsized position). Also swapped some SPAQ common into a few SPAQ/ws.

Muscle, this is the most productive post I have seen from you in months. The only thing I don't agree with is that some of the people who are down on Trump or are very concerned about COVID have not sold any stock and/or have been adding aggressively and selectively. The idea that people who think that Trump is unnecessarily killing US citizens and that this is NOT going to go away by Easter and that it is NOT as hoax, must be selling out of their positions and going to cash is just wrong. In fact I don't personally know any members of this board who report to have done that although there have been many accusations fearful selling lobbed in this thread and in the politics section, those accusations are likely off base. You have probably missed my prior posts. I was calling for a major top in the end of August. You may go back and read my posts in the end of August for my reasoning. There is no linear relationship between COVID improving -> buying stocks or COVID terrible -> selling stocks. People who think that way need to spend more time learning. I think I have understood you except for your use of the term herd immunity, which is a separate conversation from the one quoted above. My point in the quoted post above has nothing to do with you thesis. It has to do with the fact that in your post above you are giving advice to Dalal and others. There seem to be members of the board that assume that Dalal and others have gone to cash. I have not been following Dalal, so I do not know in his case, but I know in many other cases, those accusations are false. Just as many people who are political conservatives are called "libtards" and stuff like that. There are some very wrong assumptions regarding information that posters on this forum do not disclose such as how their portfolios are actually positioned, or what their actual political beliefs are. Oh boy. When one states something, all we can do on an internet message community is take them at their word. Of course, some people have demonstrated to be liars or incapable of honesty, which again, is what it is on an internet forum. But "I went to cash" or criticizing(or in many cases outright attacking) people relentlessly for saying the market is overreacting....well, I dont know how we can rewrite that. Everyone was in cash in March and now at all time highs everyone claims to have bought aggressively....just lol-worthy. Maybe some people are folks who can be described as " posters on this forum do not disclose such as how their portfolios are actually positioned" but given this is an investment forum, well, I dont really know what these people are doing here in the first place then. If you can't be transparent and honest on an anonymous forum whats the point? Other than freeloading off others? There's plenty of established investment professionals on this site that are more than generous with their disclosure and transparency...so there isn't really any excuse for some of the lesser-bodies. But yea "I hope you are invested in the market"....as they say.

Wow, was not expecting that. Century 21 is a very good discount concept in the NYC area. They were going to open a store in Roosevelt Field Mall on Long Island and was going to take over the space for a Bloomingdale's furniture store. I guess that's no longer going to happen. I'm a bit nostalgic. Definitey bought some stuff from the store on 86th st in Brooklyn. Also, surprised we aren't seeing more of a reaction in ALX and still trying to decipher BURL. Same. Used to buy a bunch of crap for the wife(then girlfriend) at the Dey St location on my way home. Bribery for putting up with the 20 hour work days when starting off.

You dont need very thorough research to see that NKLA is basically a promo/story stock with no real business, a sketchy management, and future as a penny stock. Incredible that people think GM got something for nothing here. The capital(not to mention, time and resources) that will be wasted here are just another example of the lack of focus and inability to determine a real direction. You know, Westport Innovations also once had a major deal with GM. The shift to nat gas was all but a certainty they said. The story changes every 5 years in auto.

A rally that he himself attended, no? What a crazy, suicidal guy! I mean he's nearly 80 and obese. So obviously, he was himself, in one of the small few groups of individuals with whom this would be much more than a "flu" for. And yet, he did it anyway! What a patriot. Regarding the first subject you brought up. Yea, its like basic 6th grade US history. Separation of powers. Checks and balances. But thats again, only if you are one of the tards who needs the government to tell you what to do in life...

LOL the academic talking about gymnasts and "enjoying the show"...so he likes to "watch" and perhaps taught at Michigan State? Eesh. As the pieces of the puzzle come together, more and more about this odd fella get revealed.

Who relied on what Trump was saying? I certainly didnt. I dont rely on any government official or agency to advise me on how to live my life. But to each their own. Maybe drop the "lib" but people who need the government to instruct/help them in how they go about life...they are just "tards"...there was enough data to get an idea of what you needed to do to be safe, so if you didnt...well, not my problem. Everyone with a brain knew the CDC was lying when they advised people not to wear a mask. They also understood the reason they lied was so there weren't even greater runs on supplies and that healthcare workers had supply. Same goes for stocking food/grocery stores/etc. You really, reeeeallly can't gander why?? it just might, make sense to manage the hysteria? Look at all the folks who reacted with hysteria in their approach to the markets...Now all they can do is embarrassingly say "stonks" and quote underperforming value investor adages about how the market is wrong and they are right lol. Start thinking for yourself.

Its just incredible to me how one ends up owning such a diverse portfolio of dogs. I get underperforming if you run high concentration strategies...duh. A position or two of size will hurt you if its goes against you. But its like everything some of these dudes own you wouldn't have been able to match if you dreamed up a perfect short portfolio. WFC, RFP, BHC, XCO....its almost funny. Just not as bad as Einhorn, who matches Chou 1 for 1 on the long side but then does the same thing on the short side as well. I remember one year he actually had the nerve to joke about how he owned like 3 of the top 5 worst performing S&P components, and was short 2 of the top 5 best performers....But it was just "bad luck"...

Yeah, some people are focussed on politics. Strangely, nobody on this forum is talking about France. Yesterday, France had 6,500 new cases for a country of ~65 million people. Yesterday the United States had 29k new cases for a population of ~325m people. Over the past week, looks like France took over the lead for the most significant covid outbreak amongst developed countries, relative to its population? Things seem pretty manageable in Sweden these days... So, shall we engage in a series of venomous statements about President Macron, now that France is "winning?" Is this MFGA? SJ Oh man. Prepare to be viciously attacked like the dozens of others who came before you; that dared present anything contrary to the narrative of the guy who got snubbed for debate team captain in high skool. Now back to crying about Trump. I heard yet another person who dislikes him is writing a book or prepared to make a statement about how much he sucks! Libtards....go crazy!

Posted in another thread...but figured this works here too. Seems to be a different year but the same story. https://valuewalkposts.tumblr.com/post/138102275370/2015-letter-klarman-tell-investors-he-is The “FANG” stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) gained $415 billion of market cap through the end of the year, a 55% jump. Netflix stock surged 134% in 2015; Amazon 118%. Their average price-to-earnings ratio soared from 49 to 120 times, according to Bloomberg. As in the Nifty Fifty era, money managers seem to have decided they’d rather be seen failing conventionally than risk trying to succeed unconventionally. Last year, the 10 largest stocks by market cap in the S&P 500 gained nearly 23%, while the other 490 stocks were down about 3.5% on average. “Value investors must be strong and resilient, as well as independent-minded and sometimes contrary. You don’t become a value investor for the group hugs. Indeed, one can go long stretches of time with no positive reinforcement whatsoever. Unlike some other fields of endeavor, in investing you can do the same thing as yesterday but achieve completely different reported results. In the long run, the research and analysis you perform should overcome market forces; the fundamentals ultimately matter. But in the short run, markets can trump effort and insight.”

He's not alone. Was sorting through some files at one of my offices recently and found a print out of this article from what is now half a decade ago. https://valuewalkposts.tumblr.com/post/138102275370/2015-letter-klarman-tell-investors-he-is

Slow day at the hospital I guess.

Thanks doc! Busy day at the hospital today?

Bought more 9/25 $100 AAPL puts.

Sooooo, GM cant buyback stock or pay a dividend, and is concerned about managing liquidity and resources....and then does this! At least they realize that catering to Robinhood can temporarily move the stock....Perhaps graciously hinting to their shareholders that its time to exit?

I'm with pupil on this one. Only difference is that I was lucky to be able to buy the home I hope to live in and raise my family in for 20+ years by 25. This also happened to be shortly after the GFC. So I got in at a good time, put some sweat equity(plus like $200k) into my home, and did a cash out refi this past March to raise liquidity. But I lever EVERYTHING. Cash is garbage. Even my $1200 snowblower...12 months no interest, then balance transfer to a 0 interest card. All day. Typically with home improvement projects or large expenses, I'll put down 1/3 in cash and finance the rest. Cars I lease off the top and then buy out into a 5-7 year loan depending on the rate. I've got a few private placements in non public companies...75% funded with debt from the start. I semi regularly buy vintage sports cards and memorabilia(be careful, but if you are in the right neighborhood this is as good as art) always funded with promo credit card deals with no interest. It's originally the Donald Trump strategy, but if one hates him, its easier called the Brookfield playbook. Get into good assets with as little upfront equity as possible and then let them do their thing. Only adjustment is go super hard on the leverage for depreciating, but life necessary assets, IE cars and whatnot. Its crazy to me when I hear folks paying cash for cars....what a waste. The only * is to make sure you have liquidity earmarked for all this stuff. But if you can afford it to begin with, why pay up front?

I think part of the problem with guys like Klarman is that they are already rich, and did it their way. Type A, especially, forgive the language, nerdy intellects, are some of the most stubborn people on Earth. So yea, for a decade nothing some of these guys has done has worked...but they got rich doing it their way and they'll be damned if they ever listen to someone else who knows better. This is part of what is so admirable about David Tepper. He just kind of goes with what is working and is mentally able to change strategies on a dime.

Feel like this topic comes up every 3 months or so. Value investing works if you do it correctly. Nothing in investing is stationary. You need to be flexible in thought and disciplined in application. Buying a textile company at 4x just because Buffett did doesnt mean you'll become rich. Also worth pointing out that with money to be had this cheap, your 5x FCF isn't as valuable as you think it is. And if time isn't on your side, its even less so. Myself Ive gotten into trouble buying on the "discount to assets" strategy, as its easy to ignore the operational side because of "half NAV" or whatever. Where will your business be in 5-10 years is probably the most important question an investor can ask themselves. Sears didnt work for this reason. The properties weren't crap. They just had to continuously liquidate assets to keep burning all that cash on the biz...in which case the longer it goes on the higher the likelihood you are left with nothing. Trading at 50% of a $10B NAV with a $2B annual burn leaves you with nil after 4-5 years. Which is what happened.

I do recall Ichan pounding the table on AAPL, and doing his usual "hard sell" with a hyped up, headline grabbing price target of $250. Which adjusting for the split would have put the stock at $62.50.

I am actually looking forward to reading all the "Ill let others get it first" posts from folks who feigned concern and expressed partisan fueled, fabricated outrage at the humanitarian disaster unfolding as they screamed about "all those deaths!" and what could have been done to protect everyone. Like...eh, getting a vaccine to market for people!