Gregmal

Strictly for fun, but helpful in shaping an outlook... when the market hit 3400 or whatever in February. Pause. Stay there and ask yourself what we'd be trading at if you took that exact same situation and applied the rate cuts, stimulus, etc.. 4000? Higher? Then look at where the market fell to. So adjustments can be put into perspective but simply stating, "last month or last year we were here! and now we're only here" misses the mark in so many ways and completely ignores context.

I think detaining people is a better solution than escalating fines. Outside of hugging your children and f**** your wife, what reason, ever really, but especially given the current situation, do you have for getting that close to another person? Whats wrong with people?

Bought a little SPG

If that’s how you want to look at it, sure I guess but that’s not really what’s being stated. I think it’s a much simpler equation having to do with supply and demand and assets of high quality will certainly command a higher than “normal” multiple. That’s true at the top and also at the bottom.

Really The S&P is about 10% above what it was in Dec 2008 with a global pandemic going on. More people not working than at any time that any of us can remember. Nobody really sure of how it all shakes out. But this is most attractive opportunity to buy stocks in years? How many years exactly is that? Its just an article, with some interesting points to. Why dont any of the "valuation forecasts" ever make an effort to account for the absolutely stunning amount of money being pumped into the system? The dinosaurs waiting for a 10-15x PE on trough S&P earnings are clueless. How can we even compare a 15x S&P multiple now to a historical norm when during that "norm" you could get 5-6% on deposits sitting in a savings account?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-worst-is-behind-us-with-the-most-attractive-risk-reward-in-years-it-is-time-to-buy-stocks-morgan-stanley-says-2020-04-06?mod=mw_latestnews Thats one take. Then you go to the Bargain Meter on VIC and still 43% of people see "very few" ideas lol. If you cant find anything to buy right now, you have no business investing your own money... A lot of things are cheap, but theres also a lot to be cautious about.

Some of these, especially Ford IMO are in situations where they will not have any choice but to file bankruptcy if we get a prolonged downturn. Excellent macro type hedges.

That is why I said, "assuming hospitals dont need them". This is why I think the WH and health organizations originally lied, to attempt to prevent that panic and hoarding...not that it helped. I am not aware of a retailer who's had masks in over a month.

I posted about this a while back. I have some friends who are nurses/MDs at NYC facilities, they have replaced their morgue vans with trailers as the twitter thread mentions. I think I even posted the picture. This happened about...1.5 weeks ago? Not sure where he is getting the rest of the information (burial trenches in city parks?) but it seems the most effective way to manage the bodies would be cremation,but I am no professional in this area. Can they cremate bodies against the wills of the deceased/families, if they had wanted to be buried? Probably wasn't an issue in China, but here the law may prevent it. I don't know. Probably not a popular stance, but(outside of religious reasons) who TF cares about the body after death? Organ donation? sure. But aesthetics of a funeral Ive never understod. Even with close family, Ive always maintained that I dont like wakes and all that shit. I'd rather my memories be of vibrance and liveliness than a stiff log with makeup on...My ability to "pay respects" has zero to do with the presence of a physical body.

Re: masks, is it really that hard of a decision? Assuming the hospitals dont need them, why take a chance? Worst case it is no different than not wearing one and you look like a paranoid idiot(ego bruising but nothing else), best case it helps keep you safe... We all wore masks on Halloween as kids...are we too grown up to do so again?

IDK, fuck the energy investors. For the most part, sure its anecdotal, but they're get rich quick fools. And Lee Cooperman. Stupid liberals get rich quick in penny stock biotechs, conservatives try with penny stock e&p's.

I think it just accelerates trends already in place. For everything else, things will gradually go back to normal over the course of several years, assuming those things are still around.

I stopped by QuickCheck to pick up a pack of Marlboros before some night fishing. The guy at the register, a friend/acquistaince/I see him 6 nights a week during fishing season, told me, dont worry, in 2-3 weeks the market will bottom. So either its already bottomed(aka Ackman and Tepper read this right) or we've got a long way to go(everyone here is warranted in their gloominess). We will see I suppose.

--Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC). Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump.... Here you are "rooting for America". What a patriot. How am I not? Ive stated plenty off times that now isn't the time to be bitching and moaning and playing politics... I just find it odd how the above works. If you want to assign blame how do you not even mention two guys you elected, responsible for running your city, that have more than their share of "issues"? Its just inconsistent

--Rush Limbaugh, January 2009 (when America was in the throes of the GFC). Its telling that there biggest mess here is the cesspool called NYC where you live. You've got your mayor and your governor, both whom have handled things vastly differently. Both of whom you elected. And you blame Trump....

This tells you all you need to know about some folks and outlets. Actively rooting against America and going out of their way to use a crisis to blatantly misrepresent everything they can in order to make a president they don’t like, look bad. Too many stories to mention but what’s the count now of the misrepresented stories? The latest being the “commandeered shipments in Germany”, just prior the whole sending equipment out of the country ban; while leaving our that 68 other countries already set precedent. And this is just the last 3 days...

These are just politics inspired assumptions you’ve made. Should bailouts happen? The answer varies depending on ones beliefs. Will they happen? Absolutely. And if you can’t acknowledge that, or that it has little to do with who is in office, then there’s not much else to say. With bankruptcies and junk bonds tied to E&Ps, they should all be wiped out. But this obviously conflates Wall Street problems and normal every day normal person problems. There’s ways to wipe out one without the other, but often there is overlap. It’s just odd you can’t comprehend this. Trump really does seem to occupy quite a lot of space in your head and elicit some pretty severe expressions of those feelings. Let it go. If nothing else but for your own wellbeing. My life was good under Trump and good under Obama. I cant imagine running around fueled with such constant animosity over something that really isn’t in your control or worth festering over...

They already do much of the same with utilities. So there’s steps that can be taken without completely turning everything upside down. Berkshire, the ultimate capitalist company, finds this setup compelling enough to represent a significant portion of their business portfolio. Bottom line is O&G is and has been a shit show for sometime. It’s volatile, for many actually massively value destructive, and probably outside of auto, run by the worst types of people. I don’t invest in this space for much of these reasons, but I mean to at the least, be able to understand why certain measures are currently being taken to protect things(irrespective of agreeing or disagreeing with the action) is not hard. But of course, here’s Dalal again with his Trump conspiracies and loudmouth rambling, foaming at the mouth just waiting to accuse all others of the same things. Governments, especially in times of crisis, have demonstrated they will do whatever is necessary to prop up the country. Yes, bailouts, subsidies, money printing, etc. You don’t have to like it, but you’re a fool if you don’t understand that this is what they do. Pretty much every time. Energy is on the brink, so expect them doing and saying whatever it takes.

Isn't a lot of this missing the point that while $5 gas isn't healthy, neither is $1 gas.. There is a happy medium "range" which allows consumers to function and the energy industry to employ millions of folks. At $5 they can employ many more millions, but the net effect would be millions of losses elsewhere. At $15 a barrel hundreds of thousands, if not millions will lose jobs.

The kids, 1 and 3 are oblivious to the world around them and both happy and energy filled all the time. While my job certainly hasn't ceased(despite sometimes wishes of such) it's still great having everyone home and together. Also, being able to help out others has been gratifying and further puts into context/highlights how utterly shallow and unfulfilling the pursuit of money is. Its given me thought of accelerating part of my life plan to transition to something like a non-profit or volunteer group. Money really isn't everything, and times like this, in a weird and fucked up way highlight whats important in life. Also, the boat is in the water and spring has arrived!

I think this corona tide going out has shown many of us to be in full speedo mode. i intentionally have 2/3rds of my portfolio in cash since I never want to work another day in my life, but my 1/3rd allocated to equities is definitely sucking wind. the only guy who seems to have done well is ackman, who bought credit default swaps at an apparently very cheap price. warren for one seems to have sold airline stocks at a point in time when you would think he would be greedy and not fearful... Yup, anyone who has stocks right now "looks" bad. Thats just how it works during times like these. Remember all the market is rigged and investing is a scam talk from 2008-probably 2012? How "we'd gone nowhere since 2000" talk? Its just psychological and probably even counter productive to look at things from the angle of "here's what the returns look like after everything just imploded", no shit they look bad. Warren Buffett bought DAL at $48 and 3 weeks later sold at $24... His banks like WFC? Just as bad. It happens to everyone and its ultimately what squeezes out weak hands and creates opportunities for others.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/so-many-to-blame-for-coronavirus-crisis-so-dont-bother-goodwin/ Good opinion piece on the "blame game" everyone wants to play.

To be fair, it’s not just the US, 68 countries have banned exports of PPE.. https://globalnews.ca/news/6769162/canada-medical-supplies-coronavirus/ Germany blocks truck full of protective masks headed for Switzerland https://www.thelocal.com/20200309/germany-blocks-protective-masks-headed-for-switzerland More important question is not whether US will provide masks but why a so-called advanced nation like Canada cannot even produce enough masks for its own people.. Nice find Mcliu - kudos to you for providing some unbiased balance to this topic. Cwericb - read it and weep. 68 countries have banned exports of PPE. Cwericb - ...and I am still waiting for you to prove out your bold faced lie.... This is kind of my point that Ive made before. Some of them have zero objective in bringing balance to the table. No context. Just an agenda. Just like how its stated "clearly exponential growth" but then when there is an obvious slowdown its presented as "*might* have flattened"...

Yes, I posted here(just in case anyone questions it) https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/prty-party-city-(short)/msg397196/#msg397196 Was a popular thread as you can see. But there's a lot like this now. Stuff that is just entirely inevitable given whats mandated. Had mentioned others a few weeks ago like CHK, WLL(just filed), and some others. Couldn't get it together when all was well and debt available to everyone...now? Toast. Almost a sure thing. My natural inclinations are to pick off good longs. But along the way there are safer and surer bets such as these. Easier IMO than the airlines or cruise ships. Those at least have a reasonable shot at assistance and a case they were healthy before all this. Ford is probably a pretty decent hedge bet on the short side as well. Poorly managed, highly indebted, changing auto landscape and massive freeze up in sales is a bad recipe.

Party City short to 0.