Gregmal

My understanding was that his short was focussed on B and C grade malls. I would not have thought that included SPG, at least. Did I miss something? No, but you can extrapolate. Its not necessarily the B and C stuff. We all, for a long time have known that. Its not that A is busted now too. Or the retail will go away. But what you do have is a unique situation, where short term, the biggest players are not in positions to play. If they come to market or get forced into dispositions, who's left to buy? My best guess is that there's some sort of government aid that bridges this, but it is a risk that exists and partially why I've cooled a bit on SPG. Although I still own it and have zero intention of selling. Yea, I'm fucking brilliant, timed BX and BAM sells near the highs and bought SPG at 140...but still, short terms vacancies will require further spending, and likely take longer to re-lease. Something I have noticed with C suite guys Ive been speaking with last week or two. No one is doing anything.

SBUX will be hurt absolutely zero, longer term from this. I dont own it; I actually hadn't been paying attention to it, but the fact that theyre buying stock here is impressive. I see a lot of company executives totally freezing up like chumps here. No one wants to looks like a fool for a quarter or two. If you are cash rich/can borrow at low rates, this is likely a generational opportunity.

It is my opinion that Icahn is on to something here. Not saying it will happen, but there’s plausible scenarios where stuff like BAM(I nailed the exit here)and SPG(I’m getting annihilated here) become distressed. Who s the buyer then and what happens to the supply/demand equation? Barring a bailout it’s probably not pretty.

A little HHC at the close.

I think staying with reasonably or better capitalized companies in necessary industries will pay off. Not that it has stemmed my losses. GRBK well below book, PCYO no debt and big moat on top MSA, FRPH, GOOG and the FANGS. MSG + MSGN, basically moats, trophy assets, or cash cows already at cheap multiples. The world will go on.

This didn't age too well (I fully agreed at the time so not trying to criticize here). VIX now over 80 And now I'm beginning to want to ignore my own warning and warming up to the idea. ? Thats why shorting is just a tough game to play. How do you manage the risk? Position sizing. But then position sizing in turn makes your payoff much smaller. You can find puts, but thats then throwing a time line on the trade and in turn you can be right and still lose money. Or, you can go big, but then you can get Herbalife'd. This doesnt even factor in borrow fees. I try to be very specific with shorts. Only go with you highest conviction ideas, and run the trade with the assumption it goes against you 5x. Thats typically how you want to size in. Just remember, if a traditional short, the more against you it goes, the bigger a problem it becomes.

Man what a day. Wondering if Donald is signing todays intraday chart? "I'm not responsible".... Bought FRPH, DD, CTO, MSG, PCYO, BRK, HTL, and small GOOG add

Hmmm...Canada does have an advisory against international travel, does have recommendation for self quarantining for 2 weeks post international travel, doctors have been requested not to travel abroad so that they can be present to help treat, governments have mandated that schools be closed in New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario & Manitoba, there is no formal entertainment going on - restrictions on gatherings have been placed...@ the grassroots level in Canada I find no one is shaking hands, meetings are being cancelled, there is alcohol based sanitizer everywhere.... Hospital capacity is what it is. However there are plans in place for closing OR's and turning them into ICUs if necessary. Bank of Canada has slashed interest rates, government has issued liquidity. Overall, from what I can see Canada is doing an exemplary job. But US has all the things that you’ve listed and then even more and everyone here is saying the US response is botched and they’re just waiting for Italy to happen so...?? Well, I think anyone with some observatory skills can tell you why that is.

Can he turn it upside down and add 4,000 points to the accelerated move and date it from his original address?

Same here. I have lots of family in the medical field. A week ago the consensus was that no one knew anything and there was no plan. This week every one of them stated there were meetings, training courses, and contingency plans brought up.

Or...this is like....just another example of.... a company that is somewhat(actually entirely) controversial and has some real issues falling when the market gets kerplunked in a big way, and all the long time haters who watched it run up, multi bagger style, get to have their 15 minutes of "I was right all along!". Yawn

Not I today, but had some family up and after some general market small talk helped my 22 year old brother make his first ever stock purchases. 1 share of GOOG and 5 shares MSG.

ZM has gotten a massive boost from this short term hysteria. There are many, many other, much shittier companies with no real operations and tons of future expected losses, that would be significantly better short targets.

Looking forward the next "major news" announcement at 3pm. Another opportunity to sell the news.

This. When I started out, I was basically doing short only. It is an entirely different animal, in every aspect, than any other investment type or strategy. But it teaches you more than I think anything else does, because you literally have to consider EVERYTHING. Fundamental, technical, costs of carry+timing, game theory, incentives and behavioral influence, accounting, etc. You're basically forced to connect dots and then make predicative, catalyst based sell/cover decisions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-wife-of-canada-pm-justin-trudeau-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html This has been here for much longer than people think.

I'd love to rebuy this at $40 along with BX at $35. Maybe Monday?

All stocks are going to be worthless. Anyone with debt is fucked. Or at least thats the message Ive been getting lately.

Not today, but I still don’t think beyond meat should be selling for more than $4.99

In my experience, the bottom is when you are so thoroughly fed up and disgusted with stocks that you no longer have any desire to look at them, let alone buy them.

How long did that take?

S&P500 is down 25% now since Feb 19th. The problem with all the cash guys is they sit around dancing and proclaiming how right they've been for sitting on a pile on 1.2% yielding USD for the past decade but remain too negative to know an opportunity when they see one. Yes, congrats you're 80% in cash when the market falls 25%. As you have been since 2012. And now the market gets back to 2016 levels, and you're still thinking it needs to get back to 2010 in order to invest again...

Greg, i could not disagree more about Trump. This guy is a control freak. And an image freak. And he has really bad judgement. People who disagree are punished. He has surrounded himself with yes men. The US response is severely handicapped. He sets the tone for the whole response and he is toxic. 45% of the people in the US think he is a god... At the top sure. But from what I’ve seen that states are basically ignoring him and moving ahead and even somewhat surprisingly, companies are taking the initiative as well. Trump is only so powerful. He is a figurehead. Which worked until it lost confidence. Cuomo the other day basically said, they don’t care what Washington is doing. Death rates, ex the nursing home, aren’t that high. If, and this is a big if, there have already been cases for months, I think that’s a pretty good indication that at least for now, it’s more manageable than what we see in Italy. I think we will have a microscope on Hanks and the basketball player. Two small cases but having a spotlight on how these unfold could be a little reassuring(or devastating). Here is one of 100 examples from just the past week: When he spreads his misinformation people listen to him and this hurts local efforts. FYI, do you think Trump calling the Governor of Washington State a snake was helpful? Did that help Republicans in Washington State get behind the Governors requests? No. That matters. Honestly, maybe its just me(always possible) I think he's lost a lot of credibility. The same reasons the market sells the news with him now, I think a lot of people, even his supporters, understand this. Of course just local observations, but Im in Trump country, and theres big macho men rushing up to the hand sanitizers at Home Depot. My larger point is that I think people, even in a lot of the extreme cases, have begun discounting a lot of things with the guy. The awareness is the preventative, not some guy with little back ground on the subject talking about how a scientist recently told him he would have been a great doctor...

Greg, i could not disagree more about Trump. This guy is a control freak. And an image freak. And he has really bad judgement. People who disagree are punished. He has surrounded himself with yes men. The US response is severely handicapped. He sets the tone for the whole response and he is toxic. 45% of the people in the US think he is a god... At the top sure. But from what I’ve seen that states are basically ignoring him and moving ahead and even somewhat surprisingly, companies are taking the initiative as well. Trump is only so powerful. He is a figurehead. Which worked until it lost confidence. Cuomo the other day basically said, they don’t care what Washington is doing. Death rates, ex the nursing home, aren’t that high. If, and this is a big if, there have already been cases for months, I think that’s a pretty good indication that at least for now, it’s more manageable than what we see in Italy. I think we will have a microscope on Hanks and the basketball player. Two small cases but having a spotlight on how these unfold could be a little reassuring(or devastating).

I think this will ultimately be an effort that succeeds or fails because of action(or inaction) at the local levels. Trump literally has nothing to do with this. He is not capable of really impacting anything any more than he does when he whines about the Fed. He s just a mouthpiece who behaves in a predictable way. Most states immediately declared state of emergency, Trump has yet to do so. People I think are conflating Trumps actions with the responses. Sprinkle in a little media narrative and social media effect, and its easy to see how people think this is Italy. But on a local level, I think the work has been solid. And I again say this giving credit to politicians like Murphy and De Blasio, guys I generally think are shleps. Some stuff is just preposterously priced right now. Other stuff, not so much. But thats almost always the case.