Gregmal

TBTF bank investing is soooo 2012... They all seem to have similar challenges. If you like banks why not just go with JPM or buy BRK for the exposure and management.

Thanks. We are doing great and not losing any sleep. Just staying informed exercising reasonable caution. +1 Yeah, I'd +1 that too. I don't want to diminish what's going on. This thing is definitely a nasty bug. But the reaction to it is definitely weird. I lived in Toronto during SARS (I actually worked on the subway during the crisis) and I lived in London during H1N1 (England was one of the harder hit places). But I don't remember anything like what is going on right now. There was a general level of concern (I started to cough in my elbow) but life pretty much went on as usual. I don't remember being any shortage of masks in the heath care sector. People definitely didn't stockpile masks. The markets certainly didn't care because we were all fucked at that point anyway. I just don't get why things are so much different this time. Social media This

@Castanza LOL yea. If absolutely nothing else, I found it an interesting mental exercise to consider the ramifications of the only thing we can definitely say about Berkshire/Buffett the past week or two. They were buying Delta...now extrapolate

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200305005854/en/ Starting to see some improvements here, with some big product launches weeks away.

Im a complicated fellow, what can I say?

Fair enough. I believe you that there may be little to be done for those who are so far gone. What I found distasteful was the lack of apparently concern for those and others who could be saved. However, as someone mentioned above, there needs to be some emotional distance that the doctor keeps, and I can certainly believe that. So maybe I just have the wrong projection on the level of empathy that medical professionals *should* have vs. what's reality. Either way, this has been educational in terms of how inadequately we are prepared for this (and other diseases), so we're all along for the ride. Thanks for the engagement. Again, I meant no disrespect before. Can you imagine trying to do emergency surgery on an infant? Or telling a young person they have cancer? Its fucked up but you need to kind of be mentally deranged or semi sociopathtic to live with it and still do your job well without it bogging you down. Its kind of like working on Wall Street. Except you're actually doing something useful.

I'm sorry, you work in healthcare? As in caring of people who are ill, with the goal of them getting better? There are goals and there are realities. The reality is if your old and/or immuno compromised your more likely to die if you get the corona virus. Without a cure what exactly would you like a healthcare worker to do in that situation? I know that the internet does not convey tone well, so please believe me when I say that I mean this in the most sincere, non-offense way - I think you should find another line of work outside of the healthcare industry. If your default response whenever someone is ill with an unknown illness or an illness in which there is no cure is to suggest that there's nothing to do, then perhaps trying to help those in need of help is your calling. You clearly have never met a doctor if thats what you think... its almost a prerequisite for anyone more than a nurse to basically remove emotion from things and strictly stick to protocol. Often times protocol is not warm and fuzzy.

Yea its definitely a bit challenging figuring out the eventual dollar flow to specific companies. The best Ive been able to do with certainly is probably come back to a company like Illumina. But thats not to say these companies won't benefit. The honest answer is its hard to tell. Its encouraging to see some of the backers of these companies, ranging from multi billion dollar pharmas like Vertex and Bayer, to Google Ventures and the Gates Foundation. Ive found, scientists are very smart dudes and I dont discredit what they say(same with all the medical experts speaking about corona) but they are much more academics than they are financially savvy individuals. They get wound up in theory and exercise but often remain as clueless to the investment ramifications of things as Joe the Plumber. That said, all of the people in the field Ive ever encountered, talk about this as if they're Columbus encountering the Americas. Endless potential. So its something to be excited about and the securities will act as a mechanism for those that follow to make some money. "Trading" may make some uncomfortable, but its a good hedge to the risks we've already discussed on the subject.

There's that, and there's also the other side of the media fear mongering; people actually have information available necessary to take precautions against this. Much harder to get information out to the masses(especially on a global basis) back in 1918. People will bitch about the "information" being released, mainly because its a convenient cover to express political frustrations, but the bottom line is that the public is aware of this and has been for weeks now, which if nothing else, allows folks to be on alert.

Ray Dalio https://westfaironline.com/121925/ray-dalio-covid-19-will-create-emotional-but-not-economic-impacts/ While Im not a huge Dalio fanboy, what he says, seems on the money. Obviously fertile grounds for long/short strategies. Be careful about what you're buying. Dont be irrational. Seem like how we should always invest....

The potential of CRISPR is breathtaking. And most people, dont have the slightest clue. The investment angle is a little tougher, but playing the CRSP, EDIT, NTLA, BEAM trading sardine strategy will definitely be profitable. I'm still really hoping to see a Caribou IPO. To me, these are positions everybody should have a low single digit collective basket of. Upside "could" be enormous.

If you a scared motherfucka go to church -Ice Cube

I do think there’s starting to develop an interesting arbitrage for well capitalized real estate companies trading at poor valuations. One in which cash is available whether through organic earnings or cheap debt, that if wisely used to repurchase shares, can create a tremendous amount of value. With a 1% 10 year, a little bit and earnings, leveraged appropriately, can easily start to knock out big chunks of the share count. Hope to see more of that here.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/04/charles-oakleys-dire-james-dolan-warning-after-spike-lee-fiasco/ Interesting stuff and if you read between the lines, I would be very careful if I was James Dolan. Would not be surprised if mystery tapes start getting leaked. Probably not true of course, but between disgruntled fans and very deep pockets of Wall Street scoundrels desperate for a liquidity event, you never know...

Boom. There’s the narrative changer. Let’s just hope they don’t turn around and start issuing stock when this goes to $50.

awful technique. a true newyawker will grab a proper slice, fold it slightly in hand and eat it like a true gentleman, not like bloomie, all furtive with a torn shred and leaving the remaining bit of the slice all mangled and infected. one bite, everybody knows the rules... Yea, come on. You fold it in half and bite it. You dont use a fork and a knife and you dont perform faux felatio on your fingers afterwords either. These billionaires are so out of touch!

I think thats misguided though because you can avoid going against the current and go with it. Why rent(booking a night or two) a Marriot when you can buy a home at 3% down with a 3% mortgage on a GRBK lot? Or LGI? A lot of the one offs will be bridged by assistance programs and easing, or so I imagine. But the rate cuts(predictable) and subsequent supply/demand distortions will dictate the winners. As always, there are high risk areas, moderate risk and low risk. But with this they seem more pronounced. You can take the weak and put a bullet in their head while also going long the strong. I would almost guarantee a short WLL(or CHK)/PRTY/CBL long GRBK/PCYO/GRIF trade crushes it from here. Theres probably a bunch of other great pairs but those are the ones I follow. This narrative in the market has made it virtually impossible for certain themes not to play out. With these type of setups on the table why even fuck around with hotels, restaurants and airlines?

I'd probably personally lean toward UAL but this one is good too IMO, along with JetBlue. For all the constant whining about valuations, there is in fact, tons of value out there today. You could slash many of these airline earnings by 50% and yes, even with operating leverage, they'd still trade at a lower multiple than the average S&P company. But hey, theres uncertainty here. Oh no!

And folks say Trump is unfit to handle dealing with the virus! So unsanitary! How many hands do you think he shakes? https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1234998841822216192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1234998841822216192&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnypost.com%2F2020%2F03%2F03%2Ftrump-rips-dirty-bloomberg-for-manhandling-pizza-licking-fingers-in-viral-video-gross-out%2F

Stock market 101. You pay an ultra high price for certainty. Today its 1.1% for 10 years. LOL. I'd rather take my money and trade N95 face masks on eBay for a few bucks than resort to putting my money away for those rates.

Pretty sound stuff there.

BOSTON, March 3 (Reuters) - Billionaire hedge fund investor William Ackman on Tuesday said he has moved to protect the firm's $6.6 billion portfolio, which includes restaurant chain and hotel stocks, as the spread of the coronavirus has sparked prolonged panic selling in markets. Ackman said he expects the outbreak, which has been detected in roughly 80 countries, to weigh on growth in the United States and abroad and affect both stock and credit markets. Over the last 10 days, "we have taken steps to protect the portfolio from downward market volatility," wrote Ackman, who oversees Pershing Square Capital Management. He declined to say exactly what steps he took. Ackman spoke out on the same day that the Federal Reserve announced an emergency interest rate cut. Ackman's statement, an unusual move for someone who seldom discusses portfolio movements publicly, underscores investors' fears that the coronavirus will have serious implications for economic growth. "We believe that efforts to contain the coronavirus are likely to have a substantial negative impact on the U.S. and global economies, and on equity and credit markets," the statement said. Ackman said hedging was preferable to selling off his portfolio of companies whose businesses are otherwise strong and include Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Hilton Worldwide (HLT) , home improvement chain Lowe's (LOW), Burger King operator Restaurant Brands International and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A), among others. The hedge fund sold out of its position in Starbucks (SBUX) earlier in the year. In the first two months of the year, the firm's Pershing Square Holdings portfolio fell 7.1%, after having gained 58.1% last year, which made it one of the industry's best-performing hedge funds. The market drop has taken a bite out of the size of Ackman's funds, according to a report which put assets under management at $6.6 billion at the end of February compared with $7.5 billion at the end of December. 12% one month decline in AUM there for Billy Boy

Todays drop was actually because of the 22 tornadovirus deaths in Tennessee. Immediately moving the mortality rate into the upper echelons of virus folklore and making the coronavirus look like child's play.

The bold items, #3 would have to be subsidized then by the government. Which means almost immediately lab testing would become a new favorite hobby of guys from Staten Island with a lot of vowels in their last names. #4 would also be nearly impossible because of abuses as well. If anything Ive thought maybe forcing the employer to pay it with the amounts ultimately eligible for a tax credit could be more efficient.