Gregmal

Now would be a pretty darn sneaky time to snap up an airline.

Well, futures are already down about 1%, so looks like we keep on rolling, tomorrow into the weekend. At some point, rates will definitely get cut. Perhaps some more QE. And hey, maybe Berkshire makes some moves! Anyway, we've seen this movie before. No need to scream for the 1000th time when the scary guy in the mask pops out.

One of the few bright spots today. https://ir.ayrstrategies.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/28/ayr-strategies-reports-record-fourth-quarter-and-full-year Getting nearly $4k a pound in MA just as production begins to ramp!

Well thank god for stop loses! Fun finish to the day...

Pence is a figurehead. Thats all.

More leverage, and tech heavy poo poo stuff should lead the way. If I was looking to hold overnight or longer term I'd find a different vehicle(duh).

TQQQ with a stop at $80. Just a short term trade in the event we bounce

NVTA, to close out a short position. Covered a little PLUG too. Also added some BRK

On this note, I found the following pretty funny and a good summary of most folks Everyone is always "waiting to buy on a pullback" but quite frequently when they get it, sit on their hands rife with paralysis. Some stuff is currently absurdly cheap. A lot of stuff was already a bit out of hand and probably becomes attractive again with the next 5-10% off the SPY. Guys, I value this community a great deal as I particularly thank this thread for heightening my awareness of the potential impact from the Corona Virus. It is interesting to note that Microsoft, PayPal, and Mastercard have all issued revenue warnings. These are "rails" of the economy. Particularly Mastercard as it is likely a leading indicator of future spending, be it purchases, travel, hotel rooms etc. So We are getting a glimp of the Q1 earnings. I feel that whatever number that comes out of China will likely be altered. Whatever the US multinationals report will actually be the real numbers. Q1 is likely going to be a bloodbath. I started buying a lot of puts in Mid Jan (thanks to this thread) and I look like an idiot for about a month. These SPY, RACE, PLD, etc puts are allowing me to become more greedy. So, I don't think this is buy another dip. The reaction to an outbreak is to shut everything down. This will likely hit the GDP pretty hard. Just my crappy opinion. I dont disagree with your thoughts. I was actually a bit surprised by the feedback Ive been getting from people on the ground in the NY/CA areas. But at the same time, any way you cut this, its a temporary issue. If its not, well, you better have gold and guns and nothing else will matter. So if its temporary, what the appropriate price/discount to apply for a couple quarters/maybe a year of depressed earning from great businesses? Im more than pleased with the opportunities as my negativity(much like yours in January) was starting to make me question myself. Only real mistake was probably buying a little to much BRK, but hopefully Warren is compensating me for that. Otherwise its a simple decision, gold/guns, or great businesses xx% off their highs? Lock and load.

Not Algos, they depend on live events which might get cancelled if things go Corona south. MSGN is tied to the same mast. The volume surges definitely seem like algos, and zip within ranges quite noticeably. Either way, at worst, this is a one off hardship assuming its full blown Resident Evil. Hardly enough to impair the value 10% when it's already discounted 20%+. Just markets being skittish. Could be worse. Like AMC. I know I repeat myself regarding MSG, but “fear the sphere” (in Las Vegas) is a bigger concern than a virus induced zombie apocalypse for me. I can see already the news headlines about cost overruns first and a $500M write down next. Anyways, added to PSX and a bit more DFS, STAY and FRA.DE I do think the sphere may be a problem... but... a lot of thought and conversations have led me to believe that the exact scenario you describe, costs getting out of hand, will force Dolan to pull the trigger on an asset sale. People have already wrote down the net cash position because of the sphere. If any extra $300-500M in costs present themselves it almost certainly puts a lid on Sphere London, and most likely forces Dolan to go to market with some assets. The scenarios Ive heard are that following the spin, the sports assets become the ATM. His real interests are the entertainment business and the RSNs. Probably in that order.

On this note, I found the following pretty funny and a good summary of most folks Everyone is always "waiting to buy on a pullback" but quite frequently when they get it, sit on their hands rife with paralysis. Some stuff is currently absurdly cheap. A lot of stuff was already a bit out of hand and probably becomes attractive again with the next 5-10% off the SPY.

Easiest beervirus short on the market. Distressed retailer with huge debt load and already declining profitability. Numerous headwinds from normal course biz and helium shortage. No one is going to parties or events if they are pissing in their nickers over getting the flu. 2 quarters of economic seize up translate to a restructuring for this pig.

There is a point where media can create reality. For instance I spoke with a few folks today and in respect to NYC, traffic is noticeably lower. A friend polled a few Chinatown restaurants and traffic on average was down 40%+. The "money guys" are kind of just sitting on their hands waiting to see how things enfold. This despite what? Like 5 real cases in NY? The media can use their dishonesty to be effective here.

The thing to be careful for here is that the media loves hysteria because it sells. They also hate Trump and realize that one of the only threats to Trump is killing the economy. Thus, a perfect storm of events that have a high likelihood of being dramatically portrayed and incredibly blown out of proportion. This is basically the flu. With the current ratio of 100 Dow points for every 2 new cases, the markets will be at 0 in no time. Just wait a few weeks and then everyone here can pull straws. We can have a fantasy football type draft on who gets to make $1 per share offers to buyout our favorite companies! I call dibs on Disney.

We dont have that kind of dedication here, which is why it will be much worse in the US. The Chinese will just throw motherfuckers in the pits on the basis of national security and voila, 2 months later their already past peak and opening shops and factories back up, business as usual. Trump is too weak and not taking this seriously and as a result, this will likely linger much longer here. We may even start getting CNBC Markets In Turmoil specials again. We might even have to elect a Democrat since apparently they have the answer to this.

Maybe we can get a team of us COBF real estate dudes together and do a "whats Disneys real estate worth" report! I think this one was obviously a little euphoric a few months back but its got some irreplaceable assets and content. I'll probably look/hope to start buying in the $11x range and below. Which by my count should maybe next Monday or Tuesday. At the current rate we just need like 6 more days of people getting the coronavirus and short term market folks will drive this to the $90s. Maybe if US cases reach 1,000, this and like half the market will be in single digits!

Its not really hind site bias as much as it is pattern recognition. Im not claiming to have made money on this; I didn't. Perhaps one day I'll take the time to put together a precise checklist of these things, but when they all align it is almost always the end. Check the Tesla top thread. A few people got it. Beyond Meat, same thing. Tilray, got it too. Some of(but definitely not all, as Im half assing a summary) these tell tale signs include: -well researched short pitches significantly below current price - series of gap ups -significant spike in HTB rate -irregular borrow availability -massive increase in social media activity -seeing the company making headlines on non financial news websites -doubling or tripling in less than 1 month or so, many times even a few days/weeks -no real catalyst for the move(people will often say "Oh the SpaceX valuation", or things like that, but those are bullshit) -blow off top generating 50%+ returns from days prior The more of these you have, the closer you are to the end. After a while it becomes very predictable

LOL. The company would have been more profitable with no one doing anything. Yet they NEED to compensate the ring leaders! For what I ask...

I'm thankful for the vol lovers. Without them it's impossible to have these types of opportunities. I sold $55 calls for april expiry for $5.50 on Thursday. I think they're at $1.25ish now? Not a bad way to make a few dollars. And another instance of how the most dangerous perceived thing to do actually was the most logical.

Not Algos, they depend on live events which might get cancelled if things go Corona south. MSGN is tied to the same mast. The volume surges definitely seem like algos, and zip within ranges quite noticeably. Either way, at worst, this is a one off hardship assuming its full blown Resident Evil. Hardly enough to impair the value 10% when it's already discounted 20%+. Just markets being skittish. Could be worse. Like AMC.

Added a small bit to MSG at 272. Algos are going bananas today

I am sure, in the short term, you are also going to see supermarkets gets whacked because everyone is terrified of the coronavirus

Classic sucker rally. Sold a little GOOG, CIBR

On one end, much of this is overdone, especially if you are investing in US isolated companies. I can think of plenty that have gotten wrecked. On the other end, the market had no business going up 10% or whatever the past few months, for practically no reason. So I guess much of it is a wash. As always, life is a lot easier when you focus on specific investment you know well.

I can at the least, guarantee you we will see a lot of companies "blaming" it.