buffetteer1984

I guess my point is we don't know what the outcome will be but when they trade higher (possibly before any resolution) i'd like to get something lower in price that may have more upside as it trades back up. Finally, someone here to ask: Why buy a preferred with a 0% coupon? I know it's slightly cheaper, but you are betting really heavily on the assumption that it will be treated the same as the rest of the preferreds in an exchange/dividend resumption. Are you not concerned that it will be left outstanding at only trade at 50-60% of par while everyone else has cashed out at 100%? So you think FNMAP going from $8 to $30 is just as good as a fixed rate preferred going from $8.50 to $50? Your calculator might be broken.

We really don't know how any of the preferreds will be treated but if they all get something much higher than these prices all i can do is buy the lowest price (as margin of safety) and hope for the best. Price dictates my purchases much more than the speculation of the outcome of each class. But if i were to speculate it wouldn't be that big a difference. Even with a 60% par the returns at this point would still be very attractive especially if a settlement gets done sooner than later. What's really the point of the govt sitting on this now that they can't sweep the profits? Finally, someone here to ask: Why buy a preferred with a 0% coupon? I know it's slightly cheaper, but you are betting really heavily on the assumption that it will be treated the same as the rest of the preferreds in an exchange/dividend resumption. Are you not concerned that it will be left outstanding at only trade at 50-60% of par while everyone else has cashed out at 100%?

Is the risk reward here not the best it's been in some time? We're months away from a potential positive ruling (stocks will likely trade higher in anticipation of a victory), prices at close to 5 year lows and a defined path to recap and release. Even if you've been in this trade for a decade getting out now almost seems like a complete waste of time. People need to remember even the worse companies trade much higher on a turn of sentiment. I see this selloff in the more illiquid preferred as a huge opportunity. Loading up fnmap this morning

Often has been the case when sentiment has gotten this negative (usually due to price decline) the right move was to buy, even for just a trade. This investment was never just contingent on mnuchin so the price is an opportunity if you still believe in SCOTUS

Pabrai has been a horrible investor there's no way around it. Despite ALL his homeruns he talks about, his numbers have underperformed. Free ride or not doesn't really add up to much if it's a ride to nowhere. You can get a free ride in the s&p. Berkowitz, who alot would say has had a terrible run with a near zero on a massive position in sears and almost more than half in st joe and gses is actually beating him around a 10 year period and even more so within the last few years. Pretty much tells you how bad of a run pabrai had.

Too many people love to hate on ackman for whatever reason i'm unsure but you can't argue against his performance. He's batting close to .800 on all his collective investments and is up more than 800% since inception for pershing square (2005). I really don't think there are many other investors that have done as well as him over the long term or have given as much detail of each of their investments.

According to Buffett, it isn't trading at a discount to intrinsic value. He didn't buy any in March when it was cheaper than what it is now. If Buffett showed signs of dementia at the 2020 annual meeting, then it would be easy to dismiss him, but he was as sharp as he has been the last 10 years. I think Buffett knows more about intrinsic value for Berkshire than anyone else. I don't mean for that to come across as a criticism of your post, just that the man that created Berkshire and knows more about the company than anyone on the planet disagrees with you. I think you make a very good point, but like Buffett said - Things change. Maybe Buffett considers the worst case scenarios to be far less likely today? I’d argue that Berkshire could be considered cheaper at year-end 2019 than it was around the lows in march, and that Berkshire today is cheaper than it was at year-end 2019 again. Covid aint going nowhere for now, but we have eliminated a lot of the worst case scenarios. If Buffett disagrees we’ll now soon enough. I agree with this assessment. Warren said the difference between intrinsic value and price was not significantly greater during march crash than when he bought in q1 around 220. Now the price is close to the march lows with a few variables that have changed. One, less uncertainty around the pandemic and how the feds and markets would react. Two, some of his bigger holdings have increased substantially in price from the lows namely apple, bnsf (i assume this one based on other rails) while brk stock has languished. 178 today is a better bargain than 178 in march imo and I'd be surprised if he didn't dip his toe into buybacks this time around.

Oh man I don't know how I ever missed the transparency reports before. Thanks! It's tucked away in the Transparency Reports. Listed as 'Long Protection'. I think it's Indices CDS, so it's confusing as the 0 figure on the Performance Report is for individual and Sovereign CDS.

Where did you see this? According to the performance report for may as of may 31, 2020 pershing's exposure to total CDS is $0. His nav has been dropping with the latest market decline

Not that it matters any greater what investors think but for what it's worth Mohnish Pabrai believes the lockdowns are a mistake in his latest podcast

What's more interesting is Chuck Akre never thought Berkshire was worth making a bigger part of his portfolio. That should tell you what he thinks of the company despite prices down into the 160-170. That also coincides with Buffett claiming it wasn't much of a bargain either. He instead added positions like Adobe and Livenation at decent size on top of his other top holdings.

Those heeding the advice of drunkenmiller will probably want to know that he's gone bullish on the markets and said on cnbc this morning he was too cautious during the whole rally. Also noted he could change his mind at anytime.

low interest rates (lower discount rate = higher multiples), massive stimulus 1/3 of GDP, quicker than expected reopening (less loss rev vs more stimulus gains), more efficient operations (better margins) from companies due to pandemic, huge cash on sidelines (missed rallies from retailers and funds), index is more service companies that benefit from low cost of capital. These are some of the things that have been mentioned lately. It's been an amazing 3 month ride for sure You don't understand. The fact that revenues are down 20% means that the stock should be flat or up. Since the revenue growth will be 25%+ just to get back to the old revenues! Market is forward looking, duh! Not happy to admit it, but I very clearly do not understand!

Cramer who keeps in touch with David Tepper said on squawk box that Tepper has gotten much more bullish on the markets since claiming the markets was over valued mid may. Sounds like he's trying to play some catch up from being too under invested.

Might get listing on the ftse100 so could be a catalyst to closing the discount to nav