_JJ_

Analogue announced they will sell up to 6.5M shares in Canatal, equivalent to approx. 100M HKD. Shares in Canatal didn't respond well to the news: -7%. In my opinion it's good that they are showing their willingness to sell when they think the time is right. Not sure about their timing though. They could have sold a lot more in the summer at more attractive prices. https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0108/2021010800786.pdf

It’s not a new collaboration, IBM is actually their most important sales channel. But yes, the collaboration has intensified over the years. CAST software is now integrated in the IBM Garage for Cloud module. Another interesting thing: It was announced today that 10% CAST shareholder Long Path Partners is negotiating a buy-out of French software company Dalet SA: https://m.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/DALET-S-A-8051707/news/Dalet-S-a-LONG-PATH-PARTNERS-AND-CERTAIN-LEGACY-SHAREHOLDERS-ENTER-INTO-EXCLUSIVE-NEGOTIATION-31588615/ Dalet is similarly transforming into a SaaS-model.

FY2019 results are out https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/GETB/14445067.html VirtualCabinet 3.4M GBP EBIT, margin improved from 31% to 41%. They expect further improvement to the 42-45% range and a modest growth rate. I expect 3.8M - 4M EBIT for 2020. SmartVault ARR grew 25% at constant currency in 2019. Growth rate has accelerated to 32% by December 2019. And, I quote CEO Rabie, "SmartVault's recurring revenue growth has been very strong on the back of the significant ongoing investments in customer acquisition and product capabilities. The new year has started very well; the level of new sales achieved in January was a record by a substantial margin." What I found interesting is that they are examining product initiatives aimed at monetizing Smartvault's base of 1 million portal users, who currently interact with the product for no charge. Really curious what they come up with. Net Monthly Recurring Revenue churn for the products were 0.1% and 0.0% respectively. They expect to receive 600k in R&D credits for the years 2017 and 2018, with further credits expected for the year 2019. All of this available for a market cap of only 32M GBP...

So Gotham City Research, which hasn't published any reports on its website in over 10 months, and hasn't even tweeted since late March, is now going to publish a short report on Burford only 3 or 4 days after Muddy Waters'? https://twitter.com/GothamResearch https://www.gothamcityresearch.com/research Assuming this report actually appears this weekend, I think it's safe to assume that Muddy Waters and Gotham City are working together. At the very least they had to have communicated about release dates. Muddy Waters short position was down to 0.12% on August 7th from 0.71% on August 5th and 0.57% on August 6th. I think they fully covered it by now. If Muddy would have known there was another short report about to be released why would they have covered (the majority of) their short position?

See attached my humble guess...

Burford owns 61.25% of the Petersen entitlement after the 10% sale. So Petersen income in H1 2019 would be closer to $200m*71.25% = $142.5m.

Main retail business is under pressure. Times will be tough. Dividend will be cut to preserve cash. Restructuring story - it not a growth stock any more. I disagree with this. Going forward, the company will sell Majestic and be left with the fast growing Naked business. They will probably cut the dividend but that is a result of having opportunities to invest capital at 4-5x LTV/CACs which is a much better use of capital than paying it out to shareholders. Post the sale in June, WINE will be a much cleaner growth story. Do they disclose how they calculate the LTC/CAC ratio? Naked seems like an interesting business, but I’m sceptical about using LTV/CAC ratio considering rising ‘fixed’ and distribution costs. I’m afraid they will underestimate this trend. On the other hand, there should be room to improve gross margins.

Have you taken into account the profit sharing agreement with the state treasury as part of the concession agreement? It's discussed in the comments on this blog: https://alphavulture.com/2017/12/04/stalexport-autostrady-sa-polish-toll-road-at-a-20-fcf-yield/

Report is out: http://www.pdrx.com/investorinfo.html Yeah, usually was somewhere in December, but think they have been a bit busy. Would expect the report to be posted online anytime now.

I own this one too (4% position). Their asset light design & build segment seems to be a really good business and leasing provides a steady income stream. I agree that a REIT spin off/conversion will be one of the possible catalysts. They have said it will happen once they reach critical mass, I think 2020 is a good bet. I found this interview quite helpful: https://valueinvestasia.com/interview-with-keith-chu-from-boustead-singapore/ Most of the interview is about Boustead Singapore (holds 50%+ of the Boustead Projects shares), but it also sheds some light on their decision to start the leasing segment and their selection of leasing clients:

From the Q3 earnings call:

North Montney Mainline contract finally confirmed and...construction has already started: http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/08/21/1554846/0/en/Macro-Signs-Construction-Contract-for-North-Montney-Mainline-Project.html

http://prrd.bc.ca/board/agendas/2018/2018-21-434862083/pages/documents/06-D-2TransCanada.pdf According to this presentation they seem to have secured a contract for the construction of the $1.4B North Montney Mainline, no press release on this (seemingly) material contract yet.

Hold. I bought my shares in the beginning of 2016. My view has always been that the liquidation value provides a nice cushion and there's lots of upside from new contracts once the market recovers from the cyclical low. Right now it's still only trading at an EV of 65M, so I don't think the market has priced in anything of the Coastal Gaslink project and other contracts it is likely to sign in the short term with their JV partner.

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/06/19/1526486/0/en/Joint-Venture-Signs-Construction-Contract-for-Coastal-Gaslink-Project.html