Valuehalla

9 B $ or more, less would be disappointing

For app 1 day there was a stupid message posted on WSB about a 911 emergency call -line that was fixed by CTL (LUMN). That was the day LUMN surged. The post seemed funny, but probably triggered the run (?)

This is what’s going on. I wish I was joking... https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/ So they taked up LUMN as well ? Can not find that..

Folks, what is going on? Yesterday BB was up 30 % and today LUMN is up 30 %... ? And no reason for both ?

Buybacks: I can not see a change in WEBs mind. On the day before the AM (2th May) BRK.B was at 182,67$, the days before even higher. He said on 2th May the price is not more interesting than in January (when the price was in mid 220$ and he bought back). Also he reffered with his statement to the current moment. 1) Buyback prices of 175$ in May are app 5 % cheaper than the 183$ before his statement. 2) It is not our aim as shareholders that WEB creates the impression of "strong buybacks are coming next week." They shall do buybacks as cheap as possible. It is very smart to give a statement like he has done, to get ready for buybacks and start them massivly. Meanwhile the Coronadust on the battlefield has settled down, there is no panic anymore and right now i estimate a BV of 175$ the B share (like yearend 2019). So we are trading right now just 20 % above BV with 210$. 175 $ + 30 % is app 228 $ (after the older buyback rule BV+30%). if you add 45 % to reach app IV it is 254 $ (after the new buyback rule). 3) So I expect no further comments from him (would even be negativ to inform the public about further buybacks) and I expect he will go on with heavy buybacks till minimum 228 $ (like January). All information according buybacks is given in the written reports/decissions, now he is just silently exercising them. It is contraproductive to ring the bell before or while doing it. Concerning the cashpile and additionally the incoming cash, he can easily buyback half of the outstanding shares within 10 years. Think about that....

Mason Hawkins reduced his position http://ofchq.snl.com/cache/396748719.PDF

Petec, tbe acquisition was announced in late 2016. The standalone figures for 2016 were: LVLT CTL TOTAL Revenue 8,172 B 17,47 B 25,642 B EBITDA 2,865 B 7,00 B 9,865 B FCF 1,1 B 1,817 B 2,917 B For 2017 FCF outlook was given with app 3 B What has improved since than till now, 24 month later? Where are the synergies, NOLs, taxreform, costcuts if you look on the given outlook for 2019?

Hi Tylerburden, thx for your comment. The outlook for 2019 makes it not worth to stay longer invested in CTL, all what they said in the past 30 month came not true. The outlook for 2019 consists not of an increasied FCF and/or EBITDA. Not talking about revenue. A few times they changed the accounting for revenue. This time again. Its not possible to follow it up. Last year, after Q4 2017, i did a prognose based on all the different revenue segments of CTL & LVLT (I published that here). It looked likely, that they can stop the decrease over some time. The revenue figures came not in with the expected development. Always the same storries about renegotiated unprofitable contracts, FX headwinds and one time effects. Revenue and EBITDA outlook for 2019 is lower than CTL/LVLT standalone figures, when the acquisition was announced. FCF outlook for 2019 is app on same level, but much lower than their outlook given before the acquisition. Since the acquisition was made, all incoming data till now got clearly worse than predicted. And now the total management turnaround concerning Divi and capital allocation, after being totally committed to the divi "over the next few years". A total disgrace ! If revenue will be more or less easy to stabilize, FCF and EBITDA will increase clearly even by some costcuttings. They can easily go on with the divi and they can go on deleveraging on their path as announced in the past. There is clearly no positive development till now imo & totally not any trust is left on my side.

Sold out my total position right now & taking a loss, bc 1) totally lost trust in the management: Quote CFO Neel Dev from Dec 2018 concerning the divi: So we're comfortable with the payout ratio. So if you look at our payout ratio this year it was in the mid-50s and we did have some one-time benefits this year from lower capital spending from tax refunds. We net off making a $500 million contribution to the pension fund. So if you look at all that and normalize our payout ratios, we’re in the low 70s any reasonable expectations for us for the next few years you still see very good dividend coverage. So we’re comfortable with the payout ratio. Now, more than half of the divi is surprisingly canceled and 2) the Q4 figures by itself and the outlook 2019 is disappointing to me. FCF bottomline outlook for 2019 even lowered to 3.1B, from 3.15B outlook already last year for 2018. Revenue shrinking further, no increase in FCF or EBITDA in sight for 2019.

Market Cap today 15,2 B

No repurchases right now. But CTL did repurchases additionally to the divi before the acquisition of Level 3 was made.

Corvex: I think they are still on board, by holding Calls. Does anybody know how to get information about that?

There was the same poll, with similar results a year ago. The new CFO confirmed the divi for the next few years. No signal from the management to cut the divi. Debt is reduced all the time... additionally to the divi.

Temasek Holdings position in CTL shares is spreaded to different subsidiaries Temasek Holdings owns 100 % of Tembusu Capital and 100% of Temasek Capital Tembusu Caital owns 100 % of Bartley Investment, which owns 100 % of Elligton Investments and 100% of Everitt Investments Temasek Capital owns 100 % of Seletar Investments, which owns 100% of Aranda Investments Temasek Holdings holds shares of CTL: 8,7 % reported before 27th March 2018 9,7 % reported on 27th March 2018 11,0 % reported on 4th April 2018 9,9 % reported on 16th January 2019 http://ir.centurylink.com/Cache/396409096.pdf As it looks to me, they sold tbe shares app to the same prices now, as they paid to increased their position in 2018.

Hi Petec, thx for your post. Webcast is available on ir of ctl webpage. All sounds positiv to me