K2SO

PM, MO, BTI.

I have no idea whether we are on the precipice of significant inflation or are about to fall back into a deflationary funk once the sugar rush ends. What I know is that tobacco stocks are a phenomenal way to play either outcome. Rates stay low, it's a yield play. Inflation kicks up, it's one of the few businesses with guaranteed pricing power demonstrated over decades. And valuations are dirt cheap. Many thanks to all the ESG investors out there.

Buyer. Way out of the money. Will add to this over time if BTC continues to rise. It's "amazing" what he's done but I think it goes down in history as a remarkably stupid move.

MSTR Jan 23 puts.

Agree that in theory this SHOULD be the case, but if you think that the inflation figures we have seen over the past 2 years and the yields on bonds have compensated you for this loss of purchasing power, then I can't agree. Having said that, the markets tell the story, and if bond, lumber and copper's recent moves are correct, then we could be seeing the end of this very temporary period of "transitory" inflation. I'm not religious on the matter and open to changing my mind. However I'm operating under the assumption that high inflation is coming eventually. Because if governments and central banks can escape the money printing and fiscal stimulus of the past year without runaway inflation, prepare to see this as the new playbook for every future recession.

Yup. I think most of these economists are isolated from the impacts of inflation because they aren't out there every day seeing what's happening with prices. I include myself in that group. I was shocked last month to find that a dozen donuts from a local gourmet shop are up about 50% over the past 2 years. My wife laughed at me like yeah, where have you been? Everything is up! Rosenberg thinks he's a contrarian with this call but he's just following the bond market's lead. If I ignore the bond market and instead go by what I see and what I hear in earnings calls, we are on the brink of some pretty major inflation.

Adding to a small position in Largo Resources (LGO.TO). Historically a vanadium miner, now turning into a stealth battery/green energy play.

As a PM and MO owner I took the plunge on BTI yesterday. Essentially I see these stocks as low beta, low duration equities with a good degree of inflation protection. Not a bad place to hide while much of the world seems to have lost its mind. I'd rather sit in these companies than in cash given the looming inflation threat.

I stopped listening to TIP way before the crypto thing. They just seemed so focused on macro calls (more accurately, "guesses") and it was just feeding my own bad habits worrying about macro stuff and distracting me from the corporate analysis that really matters. I don't think they were ever very insightful "value" investors, FWIW, just early enough to the podcast game to win an audience. Now seeing how Preston has gone full bitcoin it's not surprising at all. Glad I cut away when I did.

I'm no Tesla bull, but it seems like you could have posted the same comparison in October 2020...

Could not resist starting a position in BRND.A Here's a quick overview: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/the-most-valuable-greenhouse-in-america

To buy reasonably valued equities with a secure FCF yield, and hopefully dividends that can help you finance the debt... maybe. Depends on your situation, experience, and risk tolerance. Crypto? Great idea if you feel like playing Russian roulette with your home equity. In other words, horrible idea.

Outside of a few markets (copper, lumber), there doesn't seem to be much concern at all. See the chart below. Until the 10 year rate busts out of this channel the inflation story isn't being taken seriously. What does it really mean for inflation to be "transitory?" In my mind it means that we'll see a blip in inflation due to inventory restocking/supply shortages/reopening, soon after followed by a bust. Deflationary forces return, demand falls through the floor. Maybe what's going unspoken here is that "transitory" inflation means that in the longer run we are f*cked and will have a really hard time paying off the debt accumulated in the past 13 months. Having said that I actually think that inflation is a best case scenario for us coming out of this. Maybe not for asset markets but certainly for the economy. It's fairly easy for investors to position for this by buying value and short duration assets (which are historically cheap) and selling growth (which is stupid expensive).

The numbers are compelling. But if you've decided to buy BABA because Munger is in, it's probably a mistake. Munger is 98 this year. The next time BABA faces issues with the CCP, he may not be around to assuage your concerns. You have to do the work to gain your own conviction. I have decided that it's too much work for me and beyond my ability to understand in detail, and so I pass.

added PZA.TO. Who doesn't love cheap pizza and a clear path to dividend increases?