valueventures

Started a position in NNI

Nice piece on the versatility of the Peanuts brand: https://issuu.com/bmsrl/docs/lm_march_2021_eng/s/11983257

I read a VIC write-up on HQI and came away impressed (no position yet): https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/HIREQUEST_INC/4304209460. Surprised this hasn't been discussed more on the forums. Strong operating margins, insider ownership, and capital allocation to date. How do you feel about valuation? Valuation still seems reasonable to me, but always tough to pull the trigger after such a big run-up over the past few months.

Started a position in GoodRx post-earnings selloff. Will look to add if there's further selloff post-lockup expiration. Surprised there's not more talk on this one on the forums.

For a more speculative play, AQMS. Sustainably focused battery recycling company that switched to an asset-light licensing model. Expected to sign its first licensing contract shortly. Recently paid off all debt and has a comfortable cash position. Similar situation as Anterix (ATEX), which spiked 50% upon signing its first contract to provide spectrum in December.

I like Wildbrain too, Old West's Q4 letter had a helpful write-up. Wildbrain posted a strong Q2, but my main concern is the leverage ratio. While it's improving (they plan to bring it down to the mid-4x level by end of their Fiscal 2022), it's still quite high. Do you see this as a concern? (And agree we should start a separate thread on this!)

Anyone looking at Green Brick as a way to play the continued Sun Belt (Texas, Georgia, Florida, etc.) migration? Stock was up big in 2020 and should continue to see strong industry tailwinds for homebuilding. Benefits from low debt to capital and strong gross margin. Doesn't have the ROIC of an NVR, but still in its relatively early innings. Here's their fall 2020 investor presentation for reference: https://greenbrickpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Fall-2020-Investor-Presentation-FINAL.pdf As a refresh, Einhorn at Greenlight has a ~50% ownership stake.

This is interesting, thanks for sharing. Do you see any advantage to Dimensional over Vanguard, iShares, etc.? Looks like the exposure and expense ratio would be comparable. Beyond indices, the types of ETFs I'd consider would be things like Robotics & Artificial Intelligence (BOTZ), VanEck Vectors Video Gaming and eSports (ESPO), etc. I'd like to be able to hone in on high conviction sectors without having to do due diligence on individual companies.

Hi All, I know most of this forum is dedicated to individual investment ideas, but wanted to gauge your thoughts on index funds/ETFs. I passively manage my IRA and want to diversify away from SPYs/total market index funds into more targeted index funds/ETFs that are better suited to the current market. For example, I'm considering rotating capital towards value (i.e., COVID losers) since I think the tide will continue to turn like it did in November. I'm also interested in passively playing various sectors and themes that should see continued growth (cybersecurity, clean energy, gig economy, etc.). I'm wondering if anyone has any thoughts here. Thanks!

Surprised the market hasn't reacted positively to this: https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/15/media/meghan-harry-podcast-spotify/index.html I'm sure people will mock this deal, but obviously the royals have a massive following. Should only help accelerate the flywheel.

USAT

Down 16% today. I read the earnings call transcript (https://mk0anterixwxj0vfcdrd.kinstacdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/CORRECTED-TRANSCRIPT_-Anterix-Inc.ATEX-US-Q2-2021-Earnings-Call-17-November-2020-4_45-PM-ET.pdf). Some highlights below: - Continues to await delayed execution of first contract with Ameren (primary reason for sell-off), but still confident. Expects to report 2-3 contracts before 3/31/21. Estimates 40 customers in the pipeline (~75% of its spectrum value). - Currently in the process of "pilots" with utility companies (essentially trials). Most pilots fall in the 3-9 month range depending on complexity, so a lengthy timeline until contract execution/deployment. - Rather than just pursuing individual customers, sees an opportunity for collective spectrum demand via a network effect (cites Navigant concept paper: https://guidehouse.com/-/media/www/site/downloads/energy/2019/utility-c-suite-take-note-briefing-paper.pdf) given shared economic benefits and risk mitigation impact. If this occurs, potential domino effect with signing new customers. Interesting, but makes me wonder if they're thinking too far ahead... - Notes Congress embracing some form of infrastructure stimulus funding as a catalyst. When pushed on this in Q&A given divided government, thinks bipartisan support is likely - Sees CBRS as complementary (not competitive) to 900 megahertz via a "layer cake" - utilities putting on multiple bands of spectrum but starting with the foundational low band - Cash-rich balance sheet and debt-free, so ability to weather delays in deployment - Still confident in $125-150mm 2024 revenue goal Call did not seem as negative as I expected...market seems to be really pricing in a lot of pessimism (especially given that ATEX is already down meaningfully in recent months). However, still visionary at this stage with other risks (e.g., regulatory, difficulty of collective demand), so inclined to continue watching from the sidelines. I wish I understood spectrum better to gauge long-term competitive advantage here. Anyone else have thoughts?

PCYO and LSYN

CNNE is a holding company led by Bill Foley. Bill has created significant wealth by growing high-quality, recurring revenue businesses, primarily via essential services or utilities. Examples of CNNE's businesses include Ceridian (leading human capital management company) and Black Knight (leading mortgage and real estate software). Most recently, it led Dun & Bradstreet's IPO this summer. CNNE is currently trading ~$40/share. Its healthy, cash-rich balance sheet (book value per share of ~$36 as of 9/30) has allowed it to be opportunistic and active over the past few months. Here is a VIC write-up with more context: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/CANNAE_HOLDINGS_INC/5909316553 Anyone looking at this?

I've followed this some and agree it's interesting (haven't pulled the trigger yet though). Here's a nice VIC write-up for some added color: https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Manning_andamp%3B_Napier_Inc/0912028592