JRM

I'm worried that the fed is dependent on inflation picking up to bail them out that they could change their mandate to start monetizing the debt or coordinate with the Treasury to force spending. I'm sure they're thinking, if only we could give people transfer payments with a ticking clock attached.

Sold half of my calls to take my original outlay off the table. Will let the rest ride.

That sounds like a giant redneck burn barrel. What are the carbon emissions related to methane capture in a landfill?

Perhaps by 2040 we'll have this instead of all the mis-allocation of scarce metals and minerals: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UK-Looks-To-Support-Rollout-Of-Nuclear-Fusion-Energy.html

At my company we were told cost parity would occur around 2023 (this was in the 2015 time period), and I think we are probably a year or two early (surprisingly). However, unless there are continued technological breakthroughs the costs will be dependent on material and labor costs and difficult to reduce meaningfully. There are location\climate factors that impact the cost benefit calculation, so its not quite as easy as x vs y, unfortunately. Also, many locations that are strong advocates for anti-nuclear, coal, and natural gas also suffer from NIMBY-ism when it comes to solar farms or wind farms. I still find it strange that we export LNG to China and import solar panels, but whatever.

It's basically a barbell approach. 70% equity and 30% cash. Will probably be fine.

I think I would stay away from the cannabis ETFs, even MSOS. Most of these ETFs don't own the underlying, but rather equity swaps for many of the US companies because they can't trade the OTC tickers, I guess. The Canadian companies seem obscenely overvalued for a limited TAM, and the US companies are hard to value because only a few companies actually have positive cash flows. I'm afraid most of the industry are poor capital allocators and blame the financing and tax hinderances for their problems. Repealing 280E and passing safe banking will not magically turn them into good businesses.

It's also hilarious that this elite Russian hacker group couldn't figure out how to secure their loot in a hardware wallet. Politics aside, the whole Colonial Pipeline hack story sounds like BS.

I think the thinking is that in limited license states the holders of the licenses will fight to protect them. I agree, though, that federal legalization could be a big risk to the value of the licenses. In a worst case scenario the whole model is disrupted by federal legalization, FDA approval requirements, etc.

The interview\debate with Michael Saylor reminded me a lot about the sentiment surrounding the railroad bubble and the internet bubble. During both time periods similar arguments were made about connecting the world and living in a new paradigm of unity and equality. Saylor even used a railroad analogy at one point. Its hard to blame people for comparing the analogs. It seems like if it was such a great place to park your money then you wouldn't want to share your secret with the world. It comes across like a pyramid scheme when these guys buy up a huge position and then start promoting the hell out of it. I thought Frank spent too much time attacking Michael and not enough support his arguments. Either way, it was an interesting debate.

It is interesting to hear Graham's strong conviction that as the low cost high quality grower they will export to other states eventually; with very high conviction. Listening to other vertically integrated MSO CEO's they seem equally convinced that this will not be the case anytime soon. The states will want to keep the business in state. I would tend to think the lower cost to the customer with the best quality should eventually win out, but we'll see. A good hedge for Jon Sandelman with his higher cost Massachusetts grow facilities.

Does this de-risk EPR meaningfully? EPR is actually down today. Not sure what to make of it, but my first order thinking is that it should be good.

It looks to me like we're exporting LNG to China so they can manufacture solar panels to ship back to us. Doesn't seem very ESG. I read that the IEA put out a projection that renewables need to scale up 12x between now and 2050 in order to eliminate carbon emission. Not 2x, not 3x, ... 12 X! 500,000 lbs of dirt (the right dirt) must be excavated and processed for enough material to make the battery cells for one Tesla. In short, we don't have the resources readily available to make the renewable transition quickly or affordably. Natural gas is still required to bridge the gap until technology improves, and we will still grow oil demand until 2035 according to the IEA. And no, Bitcoin mining is not going to stabilize the grid. Link to my very popular thread on minerals required for renewable transition:

Dead horse, meet baseball bat. https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_day_month_year.pdf/view Still on track to beat 2020 NICS background checks. Maybe the institutions are finally done virtu-selling?

I took my son to get some Mexican food yesterday and they had white-out over all of the old prices on the menu and wrote in the new prices.