brycepeterson

Stock up to $8.90 (+23%) today, on 11,000 share volume (not actual bad volume per Solitron). Anyone see news? I do not see a new SEC filing. TY!

I think the shares are relatively cheap here and Berkshire should be buying some now ($210 per B or below). Berkshire's recent share buybacks have effectively decreased the diluted share count, which is the first fact I analyze when judging buybacks. If Berkshire was a more aggressive buyer of its stock when markets were down, that would be favorable to me. For example, if Berkshire bought back $10-$50 billion of stock in March-June 2020, and consistently bought back during down quarters / years, I think the market would award the company with higher multiples. A 2% dividend wouldn't change my opinion.

Thanks for the thoughts Thrifty - I've been wondering same thing. I own the Series H and I preferred shares. Have not touched the common shares. My sense is bad business to own, but good enough to lend to (bonds or preferred shares).

Thank you!

Porcupine - will you please show me where you saw the $0.25 dividend announcement? I went on otcmarkets to look - is it on there? Thank you!

:) ha, I hope to notice, too! The drop below $10 was BRIEF. I think like a day or two? Off memory :) $15's price area was a little more pronounced - during those really dramatic days in mid to late March. I just looked at the chart of the H's, and I didn't realize it hit $20 about two weeks ago. Still not a bad buy here at $20? Around a 10% annual income. I just read the 1Q20 call transcript. CEO states Seaspan is in constant communication with major customers and doesn't expect any revisions to deals. They think shipping volumes already put in the bottom...expect volumes to gradually increase from here. Said their customers today are dramatically different than in 2008-09 (in better fiscal shape). Pretty good transcript considering how things feel/felt at the lows.

Preferred shares have different symbols depending on where you're trading. Common symbols for these are ATCO-H and ATCO-I, or ATCO.PH and ATCO.PI. You'll find them wherever you're trading, might just have to do a symbol lookup. It was pretty scary. Like petec states, Atlas' operating cash flow is contracted and highly expected to by $500-$600 million in 2020, which means the preferred share dividends are easily payable ($67-$70 million per year total preferred payout). Also, expectation is they're done buying new ships, thus extremely low capex 2Q20-4Q20 and beyond (reinforces big free cash flow). But when the shares plummeted, I was wondering if counter parties were going bankrupt, or if global trade was slowing so much that Atlas would have to make exceptions to keep clients solvent, etc. A lot of bad stuff goes through your mind when you see something you thought was a secure payment at $25 go to single digits. Recovered to $15, but would still have huge -10% to +10% days with no news. Just hitting $20 now...

I own the preferred shares, series H and I. Read today's report and presentation. It's comforting to get confirmation the operating cash flow was as expected in 1Q20 and sounds stable in 2020. For those not watching Atlas' preferred shares, it was a crazy ride during the height of the panic. They fell from about $25 to high single digits. At $25 pay about 8%; $10 about 20%. Despite researching the company well prior to the preferred purchases, when prices drop like that it does mess with your mind, "does someone know something I don't," etc. Preferred shares of series H and I back to about $20 1/2, pay about 10%. Not a bad buy here.

I bought more LGL Group (LGL) at $11.50 to $12.50. Sells products to defense industry. Down from $16 last couple days on both the general market / virus and reported lower bookings in 4Q19. Big picture - my estimate for 2020 - LGL will earn $2 million to $4 million FCF on enterprise value of $38 million (at $11.75 stock price). Did $1.75 million FCF in 2018 & I estimate about $3.25 million in 2019. Has an ownership in a SPAC, that, if successful in finding an acquisition, can materially move the stock price. (Lottery ticket that's not priced into shares at all.) Mario Gabelli owns over 20%. Can't remember exact ownership figure. Good price, good business, with motivated management and owners. Good luck all :)

I haven't heard of a special dividend planned for January. Anyone heard different? Makes me wonder what the company is up to. Thank you.

Thank you.

So I thought some more about this, and it's pure speculation but I'll put it out there: What if the Credible acquisition was designed to support Fox's move into sports betting? The Supreme Court has cleared the way for nationwide betting. Fox is almost certainly interested in the creditworthiness of the punters to whom the Fox Bet service is being offered. This could be an early building block as the company tries to establish the same dominance stateside that Sky enjoys in the UK. On the other hand, it could just be a giveaway to Lachlan's Australian friends! ;D Good thought Nomad! Why wouldn't Fox just say that on acquisition date? Makes the most sense of theories I've heard. Or maybe they hinted at it and I'm not aware... Thank you.

Apologize if this has been covered lately - one observation I have of the businesses I own shares in is "in general" - they move on a daily basis with their sub-sector (close comparables, like TV/content owners for FOX), or bigger industry (like "consumer discretionary" for FOX). My guess is indexing + sector funds buy/sell indiscriminately, thus you get daily selling or buying in TV/content owners and they all appreciate or fall together (FOX, DIS, CMCSA, etc.). I've been wondering if this dynamic has pushed FOX down from call it $34 to $31? The free cash flow I think it will produce doesn't justify this move down - thus I've been thinking it's sector/industry ETF/index fund selling vs. anything specific to FOX. The big banks follow this trend. They'll move independently on unique events / news such as earnings announcements, Wells Fargo was +4% on the CEO announcement last week, etc. But if you follow them during the routine days, I think they move fairly close together up or down. Sometimes I think this creates buying opportunities. (Probably FOX today.)

Looks like good risk vs. reward to me here. $31.50 share price, enterprise value about $23.5 billion, should do around $1.6-$2.0 billion free cash flow per year. You don't find too many FCF / EV yields in that range anymore, especially given the business quality for FOX is pretty good. My main worry is if the CEO uses free cash flow poorly. I don't like the latest acquisition, but I also don't fully understand it. Seems like all FOX has to do to move the stock from low $30's to $40-$45 is generate that $1.6-$2.0 billion free cash flow and buyback a ton of stock at reasonable valuations. I'm not sure if CEO has a brain / understands this. Also note - Disney has come down lately from $140 to $130. Maybe there's just general weakness in media/tv/consumer stocks?

Nibbling on FOX $33-$35. FCF should range $1.6-$2.0 = 6.25% to 7.5% FCF to EV. Good assets (Fox News, Fox Sports). Fairly steady cash flow. That's a good price vs. all other bizs in market, and considering quality of biz. I'd buy a lot more, but have reservations on the next generation Murdoch(s) running it. Just paid $300 million for acq that I don't understand. Worry it's a trend.