Okonomen

What about the demographics in Japan doesnt that have anything to say? a lot of elderly... low birth rate? Could that explain some of the stagnation or low expactations for life insurance?

Business model is fantastic. I worked for a huge corp that used SAP. SAP is the mother of switching costs. But SAP management is terrible, their financials are impossible to understand and Gemany is a terribly shareholder unfriendly country. Just try to understand their finanacials. I dare you. I double dare you mf*er.

They must have burned their fingers on e.g Horsehead holdings, Graftech etc. Anyone who knows their actual return performance since inception? I notice dataroma shows a decline in aum for prabrai from 300 to 80 musd but could be due to many things

Regaridng all those sports events being cancelled etc I got a few thoughts: 1) CBS, FOX, ESPN etc has the rights to broadcast these events, but in this case where an exogen factor forces nation-wide cancellations, isn't there some sort of insurance/reimbursement deal in place? Or is it just bad luck? 2) Why don't they just play the games without live audience? I.e. playing the games and only showing it on TV? This would also be more fair to the companies like CBS, Fox etc who paid billions in sports rights.. It just sounds a little unfair if they have paid billions of USD and get nothing out of it?

Regaridng all those sports events being cancelled etc I got a few thoughts: 1) CBS, FOX, ESPN etc has the rights to broadcast these events, but in this case where an exogen factor forces nation-wide cancellations, isn't there some sort of insurance/reimbursement deal in place? Or is it just bad luck? 2) Why don't they just play the games without live audience? I.e. playing the games and only showing it on TV? This would also be more fair to the companies like CBS, Fox etc who paid billions in sports rights.. It just sounds a little unfair if they have paid billions of USD and get nothing out of it? (I have also posted this comment in the Fox thread...)

Suprised to see nobody's mentioned QSR during this panic. Strong franchise with no capex but quite leveraged like all otehrs in the industry. However, a lot of drive thru sales which is good during these times. What do you guys think? If QSR doesnt go chap 11 it looks like an interesting long temr case here close to 10x 2019 earnings ex corona 2020/2021 impact

So.. just doing some calculations. Seems like the BRK market pf has lost around 30 bn USD value as of late... So my dynamic BV still gets me to around 1,2x bv at 180/share. Any thoughts? However, BRK has lost close to 100 bn USD in market value. Some of it seems fair given that 2020 and maybe 2021 will significantly impact the earning power at subs

So.. just doing some calculations. Seems like the BRK market pf has lost around 30 bn USD value as of late... So my dnamic BV still gets me to around 1,2x bv at 180/share. Any thoughts? However, BRK has lost close to 100 bn USD in market value. Some ofi t seems fair geiven that 2020 and maybe 2021 will significantly impact the earning power

What auto names areu talking about kab? And seriously don't worry about EV's. They make up 0% of the american car fleet and as a Dane I can tell you that EV's absolutely suck compared to ICE, and at the end of the day from production to scrap an EV produces 2/3 of co2 as an ICE, so all these auto OEM's are crazy overinvesting in this stuff just due to political push because there are votes to win in being "eco friendly". But at the end of the day, less than 10% of human co2 emissions come from transport, and that's including ship, air, train! In 10 years EV's will still make up close to 0% of the US car fleet. I'm not worried

take a look at Valvoline instead :) Been crushed by the corona panic and they post +30% roic with a great motor oil brand and they got a nice growing quick lube franchise. trading crazy cheap atm around 10x normalized earnings ex 2020 impact

Also had it on my radar for years, but I don't really like the fundamental economics in it, i.e. the M&A and the low ROIC...

Their 2020 Nov 500m note is also trading at 98... so I guess I'm seeing ghosts

I've been looking more into AZO's debt as they have always been very credit worthy, but in a scenario with a complete US lockdown for who knows how long, they will generate significant losses together with other retailers thus breaching covenants etc. They have 5,4 bUSD debt in total. All this is senior debt 2 bUSD undrawn credit facility which can be expanded to 2,4 bUSD. Covenants on the debt is as follows: Senior debt (the 5,4 bUSD) holds no financial covenants. However, there is financial covenants on the undrawn RCF: >2,5x EBITDAR/interest and <3,25x ND/EBITDAR. 500 mUSD of the 5,4 bUSD matures in 2020. In Novemebr to be exact. Another 250m USD matures in 2021 I am somewhat worried that AZO will breach its financial covenants in 2020. So I am actually in doubt on whether or not they can refinance the 500m USD. They could use their RCF but they will probably breach one or more covenants at that time if this corona panic continues However, I assume that any bank lending a company like AZO money would be very interested in keeping this customer alive since its earning power is strong and they are just hit by a very unfortunat globa lexogen factor these times like the rest of the world. If banks defaulted all customers breaching covenants due to corona they would lose most of their book and get pennies on the dollar Moreover, AZO owns 50% of their sqf so there should be some sale/leaseback opportunity, ut in a covid-19 world I don't know how much cash inflow this could generate Any thoughts on this? Am I worried over nothing?

I understand ur argument but at the end of the day banks cannot "forgive" such a large share of clients. For how long will they have to "forget" the covenants?? I see a potential huge domino effect here and potential chap 11's with dilution. The government are talking much about helping airlines etc but what about regular retailers or other businesses that rely on consumption?

I am actually starting to get worried about debt covenants for a lot of otherwise strong companies. Just think about it... e.g. AutoZone. It's a retailer. Very strong resilient business model with 2,5x ND/EBITDA. Let's say they got a covenants saying <5x ND/EBITDA and we have a large part of 2020 with potential US lockdown or similar... People won't come to the store, so AZO will have very low or perhaps even negative EBITDA for lets say.. 2-3 quarters? This will hit covenants and potential default an otherwise great business?! I assume the bank owning the debt would give some slack, but the banks can give slack to the thousands of companies in the potential sceario I put up for Autozone in this post... Any thoughts? Am I worried over nothing? Just thinking of all the covanants that are going to get breached soon