lnofeisone

tldr; there is plenty of oil and it may take few 6-12 months to open up shut in wells. I'd expect, any price increases to be transitory and would use that as an opportunity to further reduce my energy holdings. I think this is a stretch. Specifically " A lack of capital investment in finding new supplies of oil and gas." There is still a massive overhang of shut in wells, just in the US. The interesting part will be to learn how effective were different shut in strategies that companies used as there is no real data on long-term impact on shut ins across different types of wells (in a nutshell, when you close the well you risk damaging reservoir and you never know what you will find when you open it back up, especially if you close the well for a long time). For example, PXD went with "The Company continues to proactively curtail lower-margin, higher-cost vertical well production in the current commodity price environment, benefiting operating costs." https://investors.pxd.com/news-releases/news-release-details/pioneer-natural-resources-company-reports-second-quarter-2020 Exxon closed higher producing wells. Add Russia and Saudi capability to pump more, and I am not convinced there is shortage of oil to be had.

bought some ELAN, MIC, and JBGS

The cost declines are real and it's great to see. Two things to keep in mind when it comes to these curves: 1) ITC - this one is easy. NREL shows a good chart showing the impact of ITC. 2) For homeowners, PV is a phenomenal proposition as they are getting tax-free energy and tax-free SREC sales. I live in DC where local utility net-meters (i.e., they charge me $0.12 for fuel + delivery for electricity and they must pay me the same when I pump into the grid) so I get substantial boost from tax savings. Similarly, because of the DC-specific market, the SRECs I generate go for $400/MW so I get that tax-free too. Without the ITC and tax subsidies my PV calculations are nowhere near what NREL or any other curves.

Not a SPAC but MIC is an interesting cash alternative. They have sold off all of their assets with the recent sales of Atlantic Aviation and MIC Hawaii. Atlantic Aviation will net a cash distribution of $37.35 sometime around Q4. MIC Hawaii is another $3.83 for a total of $41.18. You can buy today at $39. If it takes a year to get it all done, you get 5% return.

Interesting read - https://constructionphysics.substack.com/p/another-day-in-katerradise. I read another comment equating Katerra to Webvan. Good idea but a decade too early.

ESG investors really catalyzed the impact of O&G debt binge, which was not sustainable, especially in light of SA/Russia oil fight. That's all it took for O&G to find new financial discipline (all but ET). I had some VGELX but sold it and rotated into few specific names as soon as they announced that they will be buying utilities. It was poor timing for them too as they were selling off beaten down energy names to buy less beaten down utilities. Forward to today, VGELX is more of a utility fund (45% utilities now) with O&G kicker (25% oil majors and 15% E&P) that missed a monster rally in O&G.

I used EverNote and played a bit with Obsidian. It really depends on the use case you are going with. EN is robust, been around for a while, and is built for 80% of the needs you'll have, especially what you described. It's very use friendly and web clipper is probably one of my favorite features. At minimum, your workflow will feel easier and it will be simpler to search through documents. I also like the API and sync functions (which I think Obsidian now has too). Obsidian has a bit of learning curve, especially if you aren't coming from the coding world (i.e., if the .md in obsidian.md means nothing to you, you'll probably have some learning to do). They store files as markdowns so there are some advantages (e.g., you can link really easily and see spectacular connectivity of your data). After few months of dabbling with Obsidian, I resumed doing almost everything in Evernote.

Or there is a huge Federal incentive. ? The sustained marketing campaign blitz against O&G has been phenomenal. I think that created opportunities for oil and gas but in the intermediate to longer term (5-10 years) gas will outperform. No secret, energy is a large part of my portfolio (even more so if you consider solar panels as part of my energy portfolio). I have few regular names (KMI, ET, WMB, MPLX) and few sleepers. I think one sleeper that has slowly been fixing itself up over the last few years is TGP - nat gas shipper. It is boring (no more IDRs), projected to increase dividend, and it's a shipper.

trying to get a starter position in ZIP

Viking - can you please stop posting as I'm not done buying. I bought a starter position when my floor person charged me extra 20% for hardwood floor materials few months ago as "prices have risen between the time I signed the contract and now." That was February. Bought again few weeks ago around where we are now. Anecdotally, we've had friends whose contractors upped plywood and hardwood prices and have to wait 2+ months for materials to arrive. We have other friends that are waiting for prices of lumber to go down to start construction work.

Curious what Valaris will do with parts of ENSCO that don't fit the O&G mission, e.g., https://www.ensco.com/news-media/press-releases/ensco-inc-awarded-571-million-department-transportation-contract

Bought back ETH and ABNB starter positions.

I like this approach. When everyone is looking for gold, make shovels. I think this is the approach Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have taken with their platforms (AWS/GCP/Azure). I think going with this trio will likely give you fine results to capitalize on the AI revolution, even if you miss a few smaller companies that will be 100-baggers.

I think CRAI is riding the wave of COVID work and bump in all the work that came with it. There is a very healthy backlog of work as municipalities, states, countries are looking for specialized support. CRAI doesn't really compete with TYL or BAH and they have specialization moat that the likes of PWC, EY, and Deloitte are unable to overcome mostly because Audit/Tax can't talk to consulting and all consultants are basically kids out of college that know how to do Excel/PowerPoint but no other real skill.

I've been tracking TYL for a while looking to buy but shy to pull the trigger at these valuations. Few comments: I like software that they have in place. That will provide a stable revenue/profit base for years. However, I think their margins will start compressing and there will be opportunities to buy it cheaper. Maybe 50% cheaper than it is today. TYL bought Socrata in 2018 and the platform is clunky and somewhat outdated by 2021 standards. Underinvestment in R&D clearly shows. Partnering with AWS is nice but really is not distinguishing. AWS will partner with anyone as their margins are close to 90% and they sell AWS and don't have to worry about the low margins on services. In many cases AWS will partner with several vendors bidding on the same contract and just go with the winner. ACN, BAH, Deloitte et. al have been making massive inroads into state and local. State and local in the US is not a sophisticated buyer at all (as compared to the Federal gov't) and high margins are very common. This naturally attracts competition. ACN has been extremely aggressive at developing and partnering to develop pseudo-products for digitization (and digitalization), modernization, etc. Deloitte has been somewhat aggressive buying innoWake few years back. The buying cycle is about 1-3 years for state and local so I think 2021-2022 we will start seeing results of other consulting firms entering the market. If I remember correctly, ACN partners with TYL but that's an interesting relationship. Some of the other partners are low quality staff augmentation shops that only exist because of all the small business requirements. At some point, low staff quality shows.