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tol1

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  1. Can you explain what you mean by accounting changes? How has revenue recognition changed? I couldn't find that up thread, and I must have missed that looking at Burford. Reading financial reports including the footnotes. I have not done the in-depth work, so DYOR please. Right but you were the one who brought up revenue recognition changes. So could you explain at least what you mean by that? Read the financial reports across years, including the footnotes. You said that you looked at the company - without reading the reports? Maybe standards have changed over time, and hence the amendment.
  2. Can you explain what you mean by accounting changes? How has revenue recognition changed? I couldn't find that up thread, and I must have missed that looking at Burford. Reading financial reports including the footnotes. I have not done the in-depth work, so DYOR please.
  3. Burford's cash generation cannot be estimated reliably by any means; how do you justify whether the forward IRR will be 10%, 20% etc? Again my question, as you stated the accounting has changed over time: how has it changed and what do the changes imply? Have you noticed the revenue recognition wording has changed? Why is that?
  4. I assume you have looked at the accounting change over time. How has it materially changed, if at all? Taking money off the table is fine, but the timing is a signal to investors as they know the business' prospects (hopefully) inside out. Regarding valuation: valuing Burford is certainly different than valuing most businesses. One essentially has to assume a forward IRR and the capital that generates the return. I.e., there is no way as an outsider/investor to triangulate the forward IRR.
  5. How do bulls feels comfortable with the following? Just a few points that I have not liked so far. - Founders having sold a chunk of their holding at the peak - Mark-to-market accounting - Difficulty of estimating future cash flows (simply applying a return on capital is as vague as it gets) - Management being a married couple - AIM listing I have not looked into it in detail, but has the accounting become way more aggressive over time? Anyone who has looked into this?
  6. Good morning - has anyone a clue what the short thesis is? Muddy Waters came out, but has not published any report. Curious to hear. The company is listed in Luxembourg.
  7. Good evening, Can anyone recommend accounting apps that give daily or weekly "bites" / learnings? Thanks
  8. Thanks I repeatedly hear that OEMs will be beneficiary of EVs as servicing can be done directly with them via software updates. I wonder how the average gross profit per vehicle breaks down into a) front margin, b) warranty, c) OEM incentives etc on an absolute dollar basis - do you know more? Also, I see that some dealers open independent used dealerships with low avg prices offset by F&I, warranty etc. - What is your view on a) the sustainable economics of that model and b) the potential to scale as to me it seems any dealer could follow the same strategy?
  9. Some of the listed dealers have poor ROICs - still my go-to-metric after all. I get the scale effect, but for used cars anyone can enter any market and push prices down hoping to recoup that by selling financing/insurance/warranty etc. The threat that won't go is the price transparency, not just ecommerce. I just don't see how dealers can escape from that and stabilize gross profits. What are the arguments for gross profits per car to stabilize or even increase again? Also, car volumes do not grow over the long-term, but move within set ranges. Pricing is set by OEMs. So how can dealers grow their top line? Rate increases have already increased the floorplan rates of most dealers, in fact. IMO that cannot be a tailwind. That is why car financings (both new and used) for consumers have gone up as well. I am not saying that there is a going concern doubt, but given where we are in the cycle, I just cannot see positive developments in the next 2-3 years.
  10. I think Lithia have been acquisitive, but that alone does not justify an investment. Looking at the fundamentals, why would one buy a car dealer stock now? SG&A and floorplan interest have material impact on EPS. Rates are heading north and dealers have to step up online investments. Overall, valuations have come down in some instances, but IMO that is anticipating upcoming deflated earnings. Just trying to challenge a potential long view.
  11. As long as dealer laws exist, there is still some value in the dealership. It is increasingly difficult for independent dealers to survive, especially as interest rates on floor plan financing have risen. New car sales are essentially breakeven. Profit is on financing, add-ons, used cars/trade-ins, and service. There are still a ton of independent dealerships. Consolidation among those is inevitable. Dealer laws are being reviewed as we speak and OEMs partially circumvent them with car sharing. Tesla sells cars directly. Another challenge is that OEMs barely sign off new dealer locations anymore. Plus on the used cars side you can open anywhere. Why is consolidation inevitable? The number of independent dealers has actually grown since 08/09. Consolidation requires capital and looking at how the dealers are leveraged I do not see a lot of headroom. Do you have any insights on my questions by any chance?
  12. There are plenty of headwinds (ecommerce, transparency for consumers, rising rates etc) and I am looking for any positives. Any bull arguments and data much welcome. Apart from that, a few questions that arose during my readings: - I saw that while the sales price per vehicle has grown both for new and used vehicles since 2011/12, gross profit per car has come down for dealers. Who has benefited from the price increase? OEMs only? - Also, I wonder how the average gross profit per vehicle breaks down into a) front margin, b) warranty, c) OEM incentives etc on an absolute dollar basis - Has there been any news on a potential consolidation among listed dealerships?
  13. Good evening, anyone who has looked into the US car dealerships? Any recommended resources? Thanks
  14. The domestic takeout/delivery pizza market is obviously saturated. However, DPZ is taking market share. They have 31% market share up from 23% 5 years ago. Meant the entire QSR/fast casual space across pizza/burger etc. The ROA comparison is pointless anyway as some are almost 100% franchisors (DPZ), whereas others are not (CMG).
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