FairFacts

and a small thorn in Prem's side with regard to exec. pay at Blackberry....

High level scan of the shipping industry, certainly pertinent to ATCO and its seeming very capable management.....

Just a thought, I have no direct knowledge of anything like this.... Could Fairfax have entered into an automatic sale plan with a broker with respect to its BB holdings in order to avoid any blackout restrictions under certain circumstances (such as a Reddit-fed frenzy). As part of its annual announcements Fairfax has in the past used an automatic share purchase plan of its own stock during the restricted period. a hopeful thought, maybe?

I sincerely hope that they have started to lighten their position at these levels (above $10). Even if they sold 10-20% at these levels it would be a start. If they are really true to buying back their own stock, this is a real opportunity. Each 1% of outstanding shares (of FRFHF) will cost them about $122mil at current prices. If they were to sell 25% of their current BB shares they could raise this ($122mil) and reduce their shares outstanding by 1% while still holding the remaining 75% of BB shares PLUS the convertible debt. Its a no brainer to me!

Well that was some day!. Up 20% on big volumes this morning BB finished up 1% for the day on +115mil shares (normally about 12 mil per day). My guess the reddit crowd were pushing the shorts out then some big sellers showed up (hopefully PW & co).

Don't look now, BB up 11%

‘We expect to compound our mark-to-market book value per share over the long term by 15% annually’ Quoted from the opening line of the annual report and previously stated Fairfax objective. How can investors hold this investment if they doubt that this is achievable? (I do and with the current set-up expect to see them achieve/exceed this objective over the next few years).

What expected return over the next 5 or 10 years would make you consider FFH? What are some of these better opportunities and what are their expected returns? At a $455 CDN average cost, I expect Fairfax to return 15-22% annualized over the next 3 years...so it will hit $700-850 CDN conservatively over the next three years. Holding beyond that isn't a concern...but if markets go sideways, I'm comfortable enough to hang on longer and continue to add if it remains at a significant discount. Personally, in this market, I see fewer and fewer opportunities as good. If you think you know of some, please share. Cheers! Parsad, you are too conservative! (all numbers in US$). Fairfax stated objective is to compound bv at 15%. BV at 12/31/20 was $478, if compounded for the next three years it increases as follows: Yr 1 $550, Yr 2 $632, yr 3 $727. After three years the multiple should revert towards the historical mean ~1.2x bv (if they execute at 15% growth the multiple could well be significantly greater than 1.2). At a multiple of 1.0 and BV of $727 = share price of $727, at a multiple of 1.2 = a share price of $872. If they fail to execute at this level then the long-term investment thesis is gone. I sense that they are better positioned now than in recent history and hopefully have learnt from their mistakes. The bottom line for me is (and always has been) that they have an uncanny knack of staying defensive enough to weather the storm(s). I think this is sometimes overlooked!

Sale of a Brit subsidiary, announced by the acquirer, no press release from Fairfax.... https://finance.yahoo.com/news/accelerant-acquires-commonwealth-insurance-company-130000763.html

Best quote..... "Nothing that a $1,000 share price won't solve"....Prem

Atco (Seaspan) announces yet another acquisition of 8 newbuilds plus an option on an additional 4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/statement-minister-veterans-affairs-minister-140000272.html

Altius IPO’d today, closing just below it’s C$14 opening price.

Eurobank closed in Athens today up 9.58% on 3 times normal volume.

I’ll revise my earlier answer, the chances of a US $750 price within 5 years should be a forgone conclusion YES! it will. A better question is what are the chances within 24 months. 1. Y/e reported book value was $477 per share. 2. Stated long-term objective is to achieve 15% BV growth. 3. BV of $477 compounded at 15% for two years gets to $630 4. Reversion to mean multiple on BV of 1.2 gets you to a share price of $756! With all of the tailwinds discussed this should be a ‘mid-point’ estimate (the $750) it could easily by higher. If not questions must be asked....I’m optimistic..... Three IPO’s in the hopper already, bring it on.

It would be unforgivable not to have locked in at least a meaningful portion of the gain. Unless there is a technical/contractual limitation I will be amazed if something hasn’t been done. Would certainly cause one to question why not?