Saluki

Ericsson, Motorola and Nokia are all working on Private LTE equipment in this spectrum. https://www.fiercewireless.com/private-wireless/ericsson-anterix-collaborate-900-mhz It was down about 30% after I recommended it (I have the worst timing in the universe) and then came back, I'm up 24% on this currently. I still own a small position and I think the outages in Texas, the hacking of the Northeast pipeline from across the globe, and concerns about global warming/network reliability are all tailwinds in the longterm for ATEX. It's still only a small position for me because after I buy something I usually understand it better. At the price they acquired the spectrum, It still looks like they could shut the doors, resell the spectrum and still make some money (or let's say it's hard to lose money). But I thought their monopoly on the spectrum might be a license to print money, even with tight-fisted utilities. However, I recently realized that although there are lots of utilities across the US, in each region, there is only utility (or maybe a 2-3). So although you have a monopoly on one side of the transaction, in each region where you are trying to sell the licenses you have a regional monopsony or oligopoly. That's not ideal for collecting monopoly rents. I'd add more at lower prices, but I'm still just holding my current position for now.

My understanding of how this segment works is that won't place an order unless they have contracts/commitments on specific routes with specific carriers (big ship sizes are better for some ports, medium for others), so they wouldn't be buying this many ships on spec. I would assume that once you have contracted cash flow in place, the financing should be available. Maybe uncle Prem wants some more fixed income convertible debt?

13Fs are out. Looks like Michael Burry bought some of this and a couple of other things in shipping. https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=SAM Anyone have thoughts on the timing?

FFH bought back a small amount during the great plunge during the pandemic when Intrepid was trading below $1 a share. The did a reverse stock split (10:1) and it's tripled off the low. Looks like it's firing on all cylinders again: https://intrepidpotashinc.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intrepid-announces-first-quarter-2021-results

My only concerns for JOE was that they had a big development plan that included some debt. If it worked, the flywheel starts and keeps going, but if it didn't it would go from a company with no debt doing a lot of buybacks to a company that would have to use cash to service debt instead of shrinking share count. If it did work, I hoped that that stock would stay low so that they could keep doing buybacks and I could add more. It looks like it's working (and getting noticed, which is reflected in the price), and if it came down again I would add more but I'm not going to chase it. I'm just going to sit, relax and let JOE do it's thing, "when the train comes in, everybody rides."

I'm surprised he bought at 50 and not at 15. Could be that he couldn't because he was in possession of material non-public info. Now that the earnings are out (2x what they made last year) maybe his blackout period, before and after an earnings release, is over and he's buying some for himself because he thinks the horse looks good in this race. I haven't added at these prices, but I'm not selling for a while either. I've been sitting on this while it traded sideways since 2019 and now that the plane is in the air, I'm not parachuting out.

It started coming down and I was hoping I'd get some more bites at the apple in the $40s, but it looks like it's gonna keep running. I'm still holding but I'm not adding at these prices. I think HHC, which has doubled off it's pandemic low looks okay vs JOE that has almost quadrupled. But I think this still has room to grow since those land sales make the commercial stuff that JOE has in development become more valuable.

The conference call was wonderful, but there was some unintentional comedy gold. Did you guys catch the guy who said that Prem is not doing deep analysis in these holdings anymore, and that he doesn't understand tech, and that he should give up the reigns and that people on the board probably think the same thing about him but are too polite to say it to him...because they are Canadians. Prem's response reminded me of the Big Lebowski "well, that's just, like, an opinion, man." I've been a shareholder for a few years and have been down about 50% at some points so I'm glad to see it firing on all cylinders again with Prem and company focused solely on the businesses instead of making huge bets on calling market tops.

I still have this but haven't sold. As far as the potential demand in lithium batteries, I feel like that's a "but wait...there's more!" part of the presentation. The way I see it is that there is no substitute for needle coke. It's long and when it heats up, it expands up and down, not sideways, so you can make big rods that can withstand high temps. If they expanded sideways, you couldn't make thick graphite rods because the expansion would make them blow apart. Petroleum needle coke is in limited supply because it's a buy product of petroleum refining and now that some refiners are not operating at 100% capacity because of the pandemic, the fact that EAF is vertically integrated puts it in a great position. I don't understand the exact difference between PET needle coke and the needle coke that you get from coal, but (according to the description in their annual report) it takes a lot more time to make a graphite rod from coal, so unless the price difference is substantial, it's an inferior substitute. I like this for the same reason that people like ADP or Transdigm, they provide a necessary element to businesses that are a small part of the total cost of the finished product, and they are in an oligopoly industry. Even if you don't win the lottery, it's a company where there are good economics and good management and it's hard to lose money under those circumstances.

As someone smarter than me once observed about shipping "it's a place where firms usually make a living and occasionally make a killing."

I hate paying taxes but I own this in my regular account and my retirement account and I'm tempted to sell it in my retirement account. Problem is that last year I sold about half and thought I would just buy it back later (because it's been trading sideways for years) and then it began it's run. I ended up buying most of it back at higher prices and still ended up with more than a double, but if just sat on my hands and did nothing it would've been soooo much better. Besides JOE doing really well, the stuff I replaced it with, which I loved at the time, feels like the kind of love you hear about in country music songs.

Well they’re generating $700m of FFO a year and that’s probably rising given their spot exposure in smaller ships, so given there’s 2 years before delivery I suspect they’ve got it covered ;) I’d be surprised if they cut the divi but you never know. If I recall correctly, from a conference call a couple years ago, MGMT said that they would like to funnel more cash to promising areas, share buybacks, debt repayment etc which makes more sense than growing the dividend, but that it was a balancing act because many shareholders have been holding for years and came to expect the dividend. i think they split the baby by not cutting the dividend, but telling people not to expect an increase even if the company started making a lot more money. I agree that predicting demand a few years out is tricky, but if they are buying the ships because they have contracts in place from a liner company, then it's a good thing because we've got a predictable increase in cash flow that makes it more valuable today. Full disclosure: this is one of my top 5 positions, but I'm betting on the jockey more than the horse.

I think HHC is two companies (Master planned community and finished properties like South Street Seaport). They think they get sell off the Chicago downtown office bldg and get another $100mm and the pandemic has probably helped by making communities like Houston and Las Vegas (where they have SF housing more spread out) more attractive.

Looks like he bought 1/3 because of the put and 2/3 on his own. I wish I had backed the truck up at $50 instead of dipping my toe in. Since this is probably still underpriced, and so is his closed end fund, I wish there were a way that he could buy most of it with his closed end fund, then merge it with his overpriced SPAC. Kind of like the russian nesting dolls that Buffett used to do in the early days with Blue Chip Stamps. https://www.fool.com/millionacres/real-estate-investing/articles/bill-ackman-just-bought-even-more-howard-hughes-corporation-stock/

I've thought for a long time it was overpriced. Now that it's marketcap is more than 12x General Motors, I still think it's overpriced, but now I think everyone is crazy. There are a few Teslas in my neighborhood, but honestly I count more mini-coopers than I do Teslas. And I see a LOT of GMs. If I was running an incredibly large hedge fund and I had a choice of taking TSLA private at $800 billion or taking GM private and having an extra $740 billion to invest in other companies, then I don't want any part of that cult. Still, a lot of people are buying it (like bitcoin) because they think other people will buy it later (and they buy it because they think others will come in and buy later, etc.). It's sort of like the Kardashians who are famous for being famous.