Castanza

Not to bring this back from the dead, but I'm curious what everyone's appetite for margin is in the current environment? Personally, I don't use it, but I have seen a lot of discussion (inner circles) regarding it.

Got some CMCSA under $46

https://www.boeing.com/defense/#/products-services There isn't a chance this is a zero. I agree that the damage isn't priced in though. I hope there is a large pullback. BA has been on the watch list for some time.

$WMB

If you know what you’re doing you could always use an old Tesla battery for your house. I believe in one of the videos he mentions how much he paid for a used battery. https://www.youtube.com/user/oldmilwaukee100

Government debt will never be repaid. If any government on earth needs to repay debt, and can’t roll it over, they will default. This applies to the US as well. We are running 5% deficit as a percent of GDP in one of the hottest economy ever 10 years plus into a recovery, how would we ever repay debt? Give it a recession and we run at 10% GDP deficit quickly. Government debt is never repaid, it is only rolled over. Say the euro goes extinct. What does that even look like? What is the path forward from there for European countries? Italy will still have its issue regardless of the euro at this point right?

There are trade-offs wherever you live. This "dorm" feeling as Greg put is it the exact reason I chose to not live in a big city for any extended period of time. People are annoying all over the place. You're just much more likely to encounter them in a city due to proximity. Personally I prefer to walk outside every morning to see a few deer grazing in the field, over some meth addict sitting on my steps. My wallet also thanks me! But to each their own! Different strokes for different folks :P

Macro is so unpredictable and speculative. It's interesting to discuss for sure (everyone loves a good apocalypse thesis), but there is no sure way to effectively use any of this to your advantage. It's much more effective to hedge yourself on the personal finance side of things. Hedge your career with other skills outside of your current career path. Don't over leverage yourself with personal debt. Build a solid emergency fund. Take care of your body. One way or another, life will go on.

I would recommend never writing anything defamatory. Something like "Could you please stop smoking so much weed so I can sleep." is probably fine. Always keep it as hearsay. I don't know much about the laws where you are, but you never know how these neighbor spats can spiral to ridiculous levels. Last thing you want is to be sitting in some court where this guy is suing you for harassment and he has a pile of threatening letters as evidence.

+1

I really like Vanguard's dilapidated look (though sometimes I get the updated screen edition and it looks worse). I keep my core holdings there and the interface is so clunky it pains me to even think about trading on it. This is probably the reason why I haven't had many sell transactions on Vanguard over the years and that portfolio has been outperforming my actively managed account by a wide margin. I guess, I'm glad that the fees are now 0. :) The amount of click-throughs is annoying. Lack of solid mobile platform is also a bit annoying.

For those who care. Vanguard finally joined commission free trading on equities. Also looks like they will finally update their online experience (about time). https://pressroom.vanguard.com/news/Press-Release-Vanguard-Expands-Commission-Free-Platform-Beyond-ETFs.html

Adding to $DISCA, $BP, $WMB, $T

I hear this daily from my wife who’s specialized in Neonatal Intensive Care. :o

Stumbled upon this old thread. Discussion seemed relevant and interesting enough to bump. https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/impact-of-low-interest-rates/50/

I guess it depends which core themes you find the most interesting. I simply liked the nihilistic theme in Demons. You could argue that some of his other stories are more entertaining, but if your're reading Dostoyevsky you're not really after a surface level story. I guess I shouldn't have assigned a favorite as I read them over a long period of time. I'm one of those people who will read 25 books at a time.

Took me three years to work through Fyodor Dostoyevsky's five main works. Very much worth the time and effort. - Notes from the underground - Crime and Punishment - The Idiot - Demons (Probably my favorite) - The Brothers Karamazov “Man is sometimes extraordinarily, passionately, in love with suffering. That is a fact.” - Fyodor Dostoyevsky

"They are endless money pits" - Scotty Kilmer If you want reliable, no-brainer cars and you like the design, I would go with Toyota. Most of the Hondas are great as well. Recent Mazdas are great value for money, reliable almost as the Toyotas, have very nice design(I love them). Also consider Hyundai/Kia - very good value/features etc.. If you are willing to spend more or want more premuim brands, check out Lexus/Acura/Genesis. Especially Genesis can be a great value second hand. Avoid anything German, specially premium German(Mercedes/BMW/Audi), unless you really like them. Also better avoid anything with CVT or Dual Clutch transmissions. They tend to have many problmes and are expensive to repair. Do you have any specific models in mind? What is your budget? Willing to buy second hand? Size/shape(passenger/SUV?). I wouldn’t trust Scotty Miller. I think he may be paid by Toyota. Toyota is very good at marketing it’s crappy cars through self media. I remember one day Scotty said his son bought a new Toyota Tacoma and expected to keep it for decades. If you check Consumer reports or other car review channels, you can see that the new Tacoma is one of the least reliable pickup truck on market. Its highest end TRD PRO off road trim is also a complete joke. Search for a YouTube video for Honda Ridgeline base model driving into Death Valley Race Track, with a Tacoma TRD as the support vehicle and see what happened. The Tacoma’s all four suspension exploded after 6 miles while the Ridgeline base model made it back in the end with tiny leaks in one suspension. The new Tacoma is still in the early stages of the model. If you go and look at the 2015 model they are basically tanks. I know a guy personally who had a 2015 Tacoma TRD and did 20k miles overland throughout the course of a year (he took a leap year). He went all over the states and ran some pretty difficult runs. Didn’t have a single issue. I have a 2017 Tacoma and it has been rock solid. I’m not a fan of the new auto transmission which is in my opinion not programmed correctly. At least not as refined as it should be. But the shift points don’t necessarily translate to poor mechanical durability. Both engines V6 and 4 cylinder are extremely reliable and have been proven over time. Toyota us also known for their extreme testing. Not to mention professional race results speak for themselves. Tacoma and Tundra win the Baja 500 and simply dominate the field I will agree that the TRD package is not worth the money you shell out. You could save yourself some money and just install some OME Coils paired with Bilstein 5100’s and OME Dakar leaf springs. That would take you anywhere in North America with confidence. Luckily if you’re in Europe or Asia you can get your hands on the Hilux which is legendary for dependability. There is also a huge difference between a Honda Ridgeline and a Tacoma. One the Honda is basically a Pilot with a bed. It has independent suspension (think car). It’s not a truck. The Tacoma has a solid axle and a truck chassis. My point is that Scotty Miller said his son RECENTLY bought a New Tacoma AND expect it to last decades. Even non mechanics like us know the new Tacoma is no good. So I think he is paid by Toyota to advertise for them. Well the newest TRD Pro ships with Bilstein 4600’s. So a suspension failing has nothing to do with Toyota and everything to do with Bilstein. To say an entire vehicle is terrible because aftermarket shocks supplied by another company failed is a bit disingenuous. When it comes to brand reliability it’s always Toyota, Lexus at the top and Buick. All of the big 3 American brands are way near the bottom (cough cough Jeep). Toyota Tacoma’s, Land Cruisers, Tundras and 4 Runners often do last decades if they are properly taken care of. I’m probably a bit biased but hey everyone is with something they own :P But I’m also not a fanboy. I recognize the flaws. That’s why I bought the 10 year warranty :P The new Tacoma has more problems than just the suspension. It is rated the least reliable pickup Or the most reliable and the Tundra as #2. Guess it depends where you look. Though I didn’t see any reports with 2016+ Tacoma as being unreliable https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/the-most-reliable-new-trucks-on-the-market https://www.google.com/amp/s/repairpal.com/reliability/midsize-truck.amp

"They are endless money pits" - Scotty Kilmer If you want reliable, no-brainer cars and you like the design, I would go with Toyota. Most of the Hondas are great as well. Recent Mazdas are great value for money, reliable almost as the Toyotas, have very nice design(I love them). Also consider Hyundai/Kia - very good value/features etc.. If you are willing to spend more or want more premuim brands, check out Lexus/Acura/Genesis. Especially Genesis can be a great value second hand. Avoid anything German, specially premium German(Mercedes/BMW/Audi), unless you really like them. Also better avoid anything with CVT or Dual Clutch transmissions. They tend to have many problmes and are expensive to repair. Do you have any specific models in mind? What is your budget? Willing to buy second hand? Size/shape(passenger/SUV?). I wouldn’t trust Scotty Miller. I think he may be paid by Toyota. Toyota is very good at marketing it’s crappy cars through self media. I remember one day Scotty said his son bought a new Toyota Tacoma and expected to keep it for decades. If you check Consumer reports or other car review channels, you can see that the new Tacoma is one of the least reliable pickup truck on market. Its highest end TRD PRO off road trim is also a complete joke. Search for a YouTube video for Honda Ridgeline base model driving into Death Valley Race Track, with a Tacoma TRD as the support vehicle and see what happened. The Tacoma’s all four suspension exploded after 6 miles while the Ridgeline base model made it back in the end with tiny leaks in one suspension. The new Tacoma is still in the early stages of the model. If you go and look at the 2015 model they are basically tanks. I know a guy personally who had a 2015 Tacoma TRD and did 20k miles overland throughout the course of a year (he took a leap year). He went all over the states and ran some pretty difficult runs. Didn’t have a single issue. I have a 2017 Tacoma and it has been rock solid. I’m not a fan of the new auto transmission which is in my opinion not programmed correctly. At least not as refined as it should be. But the shift points don’t necessarily translate to poor mechanical durability. Both engines V6 and 4 cylinder are extremely reliable and have been proven over time. Toyota us also known for their extreme testing. Not to mention professional race results speak for themselves. Tacoma and Tundra win the Baja 500 and simply dominate the field I will agree that the TRD package is not worth the money you shell out. You could save yourself some money and just install some OME Coils paired with Bilstein 5100’s and OME Dakar leaf springs. That would take you anywhere in North America with confidence. Luckily if you’re in Europe or Asia you can get your hands on the Hilux which is legendary for dependability. There is also a huge difference between a Honda Ridgeline and a Tacoma. One the Honda is basically a Pilot with a bed. It has independent suspension (think car). It’s not a truck. The Tacoma has a solid axle and a truck chassis. My point is that Scotty Miller said his son RECENTLY bought a New Tacoma AND expect it to last decades. Even non mechanics like us know the new Tacoma is no good. So I think he is paid by Toyota to advertise for them. Well the newest TRD Pro ships with Bilstein 4600’s. So a suspension failing has nothing to do with Toyota and everything to do with Bilstein. To say an entire vehicle is terrible because aftermarket shocks supplied by another company failed is a bit disingenuous. When it comes to brand reliability it’s always Toyota, Lexus at the top and Buick. All of the big 3 American brands are way near the bottom (cough cough Jeep). Toyota Tacoma’s, Land Cruisers, Tundras and 4 Runners often do last decades if they are properly taken care of. I’m probably a bit biased but hey everyone is with something they own :P But I’m also not a fanboy. I recognize the flaws. That’s why I bought the 10 year warranty :P

"They are endless money pits" - Scotty Kilmer If you want reliable, no-brainer cars and you like the design, I would go with Toyota. Most of the Hondas are great as well. Recent Mazdas are great value for money, reliable almost as the Toyotas, have very nice design(I love them). Also consider Hyundai/Kia - very good value/features etc.. If you are willing to spend more or want more premuim brands, check out Lexus/Acura/Genesis. Especially Genesis can be a great value second hand. Avoid anything German, specially premium German(Mercedes/BMW/Audi), unless you really like them. Also better avoid anything with CVT or Dual Clutch transmissions. They tend to have many problmes and are expensive to repair. Do you have any specific models in mind? What is your budget? Willing to buy second hand? Size/shape(passenger/SUV?). I wouldn’t trust Scotty Miller. I think he may be paid by Toyota. Toyota is very good at marketing it’s crappy cars through self media. I remember one day Scotty said his son bought a new Toyota Tacoma and expected to keep it for decades. If you check Consumer reports or other car review channels, you can see that the new Tacoma is one of the least reliable pickup truck on market. Its highest end TRD PRO off road trim is also a complete joke. Search for a YouTube video for Honda Ridgeline base model driving into Death Valley Race Track, with a Tacoma TRD as the support vehicle and see what happened. The Tacoma’s all four suspension exploded after 6 miles while the Ridgeline base model made it back in the end with tiny leaks in one suspension. The new Tacoma is still in the early stages of the model. If you go and look at the 2015 model they are basically tanks. I know a guy personally who had a 2015 Tacoma TRD and did 20k miles overland throughout the course of a year (he took a leap year). He went all over the states and ran some pretty difficult runs. Didn’t have a single issue. I have a 2017 Tacoma and it has been rock solid. I’m not a fan of the new auto transmission which is in my opinion not programmed correctly. At least not as refined as it should be. But the shift points don’t necessarily translate to poor mechanical durability. Both engines V6 and 4 cylinder are extremely reliable and have been proven over time. Toyota us also known for their extreme testing. Not to mention professional race results speak for themselves. Tacoma and Tundra win the Baja 500 and simply dominate the field I will agree that the TRD package is not worth the money you shell out. You could save yourself some money and just install some OME Coils paired with Bilstein 5100’s and OME Dakar leaf springs. That would take you anywhere in North America with confidence. Luckily if you’re in Europe or Asia you can get your hands on the Hilux which is legendary for dependability. There is also a huge difference between a Honda Ridgeline and a Tacoma. One the Honda is basically a Pilot with a bed. It has independent suspension (think car). It’s not a truck. The Tacoma has a solid axle and a truck chassis.

A lot of my fellow employees are from Prague. One of the guys I work with bought a 70k Volvo x60 here in the states. He said that in two years when he returns he can resell the car in Prague and get 100% if not more back. Apparently he calculated the shipping and duty costs. I have not verified it myself, but seems like an interesting angle to take. Have to say I’m quite skeptical about it.

Great decision buying AMD. It continues to surprise me how some (only a few) companies can re-invent themselves. My son (who is in grade 12) alerted me about 2 years ago to what was going on at AMD; he and his buddies are into technology and he explained to me that AMD was a company on the rise. Alas, i was too busy thumb sucking to do anything about it. I use it as an example with him to how small investors can do well if they do what Peter Lynch advises: take advantage of what you see in your circle of competence. I was quite torn about selling it since my cost basis was so low. I like the management team and what they’re doing. I think they have been executing very well. Solid products, good growth in multiple segments and a really solid pipeline. But the valuation has gone bananas. 200+x earnings is too rich for me. But I’m definitely looking for another entry point. It’s hard to say whether this will trade at a fair value anytime soon. Thanks Excellent trade. What made you choose to sell at 200x rather than say, 150x? I am just curious because one area I would like to improve on is with handling these "non circle of competence" buy sell decisions. I can look at a real estate company and say, Im selling at 5% discount to NAV; easy. But holding AMD from 10 to 47 or whatever obviously involved some sort of valuation work and discipline. And like I said, since the earnings multiple was never really all that traditionally obvious, I am curious your thought process; if you dont mind sharing. Also, if you wanted to hang on or rebuy, in the future you can just utilize shorting long dated calls. If you wished to one day repurchase AMD at 30, just sell something like the January 2021 $30 call for $18-19. You get a little extra premium on your sale, are position neutral with no tax obligation yet, and if your bearishness is warranted you then just cover the call position into the decline effectively putting back on your long position- STILL with a long term basis. First and foremost I'm going to say that I view AMD as the "millennial stock that has merit". It's sexy/familiar enough that it's trendy, but the business and product lines/segments are of good enough quality to help people justify the outlandish valuation. Leading up until April 2018 the P/E was hovering right around 50. This was obviously too high as it was overpriced on fundamentals. But the sentiment for AMD was really taking off since the launch of Ryzen and Threadripper in Feb/Mar 2017. Then you had the launch of EPYC in June of 2017. You can almost see the curious sentiment of this in the spread as it traded between high 9-12 range for 16 months. leading up to April 2018. I believe this was supported by the constant flow of new products and all that was keeping stock from going nuts was the enterprise side results. Depending on results of Q1 2018, Q2 2018 earnings had almost a perfect setup. AMD had Computex 2018 in June and then Earnings end of July. Why would they go if they weren't going to reveal something positive/new? I bought in Dec 2017 (starter) and in April (large position) around 10 a share before the Q1 earnings April 25th. I was planning on selling my position before ER in July for a quick turnaround. But in May we had a HPE rep come pitch their new servers which were running the EPYC 7001 AMD chips. I talked to the lady after her sales pitch and asked how they were selling. Sure this is anecdotal, but she said they were selling relatively well. The chips seemed like they would be good money savers for enterprise companies without sacrificing performance to a significant degree. They were about 1/4 the cost of Intel's Xeon chips and claimed they would reduce VM cost by 50%. We also have a few HP engineers staffed at my site and I discussed this with them. They heard favorable opinions (no hands on experience personally) from coworkers. So I took a bit of a gamble and held my position until Computex 2018 to see if AMD would release any news. They released a ton of positive news one month before earnings. HP was expanding their EPYC server line, Cisco was adopting EPYC, Tencent was using them for cloud. Call it a gut feeling but I felt Q2 2018 was going to be an inflection point. - Solid product line - Management was executing well - Accelerated growth in multiple segments Q1, Q2 2018 - Positive results at Computex 2018 - Add in the overwhelming positive sentiment, fomo and the bandwagon investors - Turn around story - Inside my circle of competence I sold roughly 1/6th of my total position after Q2 2018 earnings for 25/sh. The PE was nearing 100 at that point and I didn't feel comfortable with that. Ever since Q1 2018 I felt that a PE around 50 had relative support. Sure, it wasn't justified fundamentally but with all the things I listed above I felt that the market was curious enough to allow this ridiculous PE to exist. We didn't see the full breadth of EPYC backed servers hit the markets until Q1 2018 from HP and Dell vendors. I figured this was going to take a few quarters to see results (this was reflected in Q2 with positive guidance). When we hit the slowdown in Oct 2018 there was quite the pullback. AMD announced HPE ProLiant DL325 Gen10 and Gen 2 EPYC processors. I figured this was a decent buy opportunity and the share price was seeing solid support around 50 P/E again. I bought a smaller position around 17 a share and brought my cost basis right around 11. Up until then, EPS had been increasing every Q starting in Dec 2017. Now we were starting to see a decline yet the P/E is running away to these ridiculous levels. I simply was riding the sentiment following the Oct-Nov market dip. I'll be the first to admit I was really lucky with my cost basis and buy timing. This has been by far my most risky play/position. I still like the company and the management team at AMD. Their future product line seems intriguing as AMD will have products on the market that Intel cannot compete with due to time frame constraint. I think the sentiment is wearing off for AMD. Intel has been a sleeping giant and will certainly leverage their R&D in the future. The question now is how much market share can AMD capture? That is a much more difficult task than proving you can create competitive products. As LC said 75% of the time AMD falls short. I'll be looking to buy when they come back down to earth (pending market share gain). I think we will see a large sell off after the 1st of the year for the very reason Spek stated above. Also thanks for the advice on the idea of shorting long dated calls.

Anytime I see an old guy driving an early 2000's Corolla or Camry I assume they're pocket millionaires. I have had luck with Mazda, Honda and Toyota. Drove a 99 Honda civic to 300k miles (no major issues). 2007 Mazda 3 to 240k before I sold it (had an emissions leak near the manifold towards the end). I'm assuming you want something a bit nicer though. Mazda has really nice interiors for the non-luxury segment. I test drove a 2017 Mazda 6 top trim and it was nice. Not Audi or BMW nice, but it was much better than Subaru and Honda. Even better than most Acuras and VWs in my opinion. If you're looking for a truck then I would suggest new. The used prices are ridiculous for what you get. When I was in the market there were used 2008-2010 Tacomas with over 100k miles on them still selling for 16-18k. Was absolutely insane.

In case anyone is curious, here is a list of the top scientists on both sides of the argument. https://thebestschools.org/features/top-climate-change-scientists/

Great decision buying AMD. It continues to surprise me how some (only a few) companies can re-invent themselves. My son (who is in grade 12) alerted me about 2 years ago to what was going on at AMD; he and his buddies are into technology and he explained to me that AMD was a company on the rise. Alas, i was too busy thumb sucking to do anything about it. I use it as an example with him to how small investors can do well if they do what Peter Lynch advises: take advantage of what you see in your circle of competence. I was quite torn about selling it since my cost basis was so low. I like the management team and what they’re doing. I think they have been executing very well. Solid products, good growth in multiple segments and a really solid pipeline. But the valuation has gone bananas. 200+x earnings is too rich for me. But I’m definitely looking for another entry point. It’s hard to say whether this will trade at a fair value anytime soon. Thanks